February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[snow_wizard]

LOL at people making 1950s comparisons.  Most of those years were monsters here as well. That will not even come close to happening this time (we probly won't even see snow).

 

Sometimes we have months with very dramatic N to S gradients and the 1950s had plenty like that.  As we have seen in recent years NW Oregon has the advantage in other years.

[TT-SEA]

Remember that models will occasionally rush the pattern transition at the end. That flip probably doesn’t happen until the third week of the month.

 

Probably right... I am going to want it to be nice when we get back from Hawaii.   

[Deweydog]

You’re both Costco sized weenies. Calm the **** down.

[Bryant]

February 1990 had a stronger vortex over the pole. Right now it’s a weak, discombobulated mess. I think this month will be colder.

 

Check your FB messenger 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Cliff mass already said trace to 1 for the weekend.

[Requiem]

You’re both Costco sized weenies. Calm the **** down.

 

I'm not agitated, just being realistic. I think Portland will actually be fine, but you have to understand that he has a right to be pessimistic in terms of snow totals.

[snow_wizard]

Might be a short warm up like you said just like in past big cold waves.

 

It would actually be incredibly rare to just have straight cold in a long cold period.  Even months like Jan 1916 and Jan 1950 had brief warmups.  That having been said the Euro ensemble has consistently just been constantly cold.

[MossMan]

Call me crazy but I think it might snow again over the next week and a half.

[Phil]

Check your FB messenger

Check yours.

[Requiem]

So......how about that deformation band?

[seattleweatherguy]

Cliff mass already said trace to 1 for the weekend.

Which means more than he says!

[TT-SEA]

Cliff mass already said trace to 1 for the weekend.

Ha!

 

Will be interesting to see when he bites off on this one.

[Deweydog]

So......how about that deformation band?

You need to get to bed.

[Requiem]

You need to get to bed.

 

Don't want to, snow is fun to watch.

[Requiem]

Probably worth pointing out given the audience;

- we will probably have a full day of warm runs across the board

- that warm day has a good chance at disappearing as long as ensembles from the globals don’t change much

- we’re looking at 10-15, maybe even more days where the pattern is good, if you like cold

- sun angles don’t matter right now unless you’re worried about sticking snow to bare asphalt on a 36° day and already high dew points

- low placement is more important than surface precip

- if you want to get a batter idea of snow potential, look at moisture and the soundings, determine a ratio, and go with it

- this might be the first time in my model riding life where a west coast cold pool has been modeled as strong and as confidently as this, enjoy it

- if you’re going to be snarking because your place in Brookings isn’t getting 5ft of snow, please lurk more and post less

- just enjoy this for what it is, even the prospect of something nice is much more enjoyable than the prospect of nothing

 

I will try to be less of a weenie

[wxmet]

Utterly fantastic Euro run!  Looks like an amazing weekend for SEA and PDX both.  I love how many days are shown with high temps around freezing.  Now if the ECMWF ensemble is right about the 10 to 15 day period this month would up there easily for top 5 February since 1850.

 

 

Once the pattern locks in the same areas that get snow initially can repeatedly get snow. Euro is the ideal setup for the Sound. Each event would be around or much below freezing so every flake will count. No initial rain then snow. Just all snow. 

[snow_wizard]

Call me crazy but I think it might snow again over the next week and a half.

 

Utter insanity I say!

[MossMan]

Don't want to, snow is fun to watch.

Listen to your father.

[epiceast]

Salem looking not bad for a quick snowfall tonight...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It looks like this weekend's event will have a much larger area in the snow for sure. I dont think it will be like yesterday and today's storm.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Remember that models will likely rush the pattern transition. That flip probably doesn’t begin until the third week of the month.

Yeah, hope your right. Michael Ventrice made a mention today about the EURO pattern looking odd towards the end of the run and that it could just be model noise.

[Requiem]

Listen to your father.

 

Booooo 

 

But alright, good night guys. Looking forward to ensembles tomorrow.

[Cloud]

Probably worth pointing out given the audience;

- we will probably have a full day of warm runs across the board

- that warm day has a good chance at disappearing as long as ensembles from the globals don’t change much

- we’re looking at 10-15, maybe even more days where the pattern is good, if you like cold

- sun angles don’t matter right now unless you’re worried about sticking snow to bare asphalt on a 36° day and already high dew points

- low placement is more important than surface precip

- if you want to get a batter idea of snow potential, look at moisture and the soundings, determine a ratio, and go with it

- this might be the first time in my model riding life where a west coast cold pool has been modeled as strong and as confidently as this, enjoy it

- if you’re going to be snarking because your place in Brookings isn’t getting 5ft of snow, please lurk more and post less

- just enjoy this for what it is, even the prospect of something nice is much more enjoyable than the prospect of nothing

Amen.

[MossMan]

Utter insanity I say!

The only downside is that we have to wait until the end of the week! Ugh.

[snow_wizard]

Cliff mass already said trace to 1 for the weekend.

 

 

 

The guy is certainly a glutton for punishment.  Probably the WRF models overdoing the east wind inhibition again.  The ECMWF says what east wind inhibition!

[bainbridgekid]

 

The guy is certainly a glutton for punishment.  Probably the WRF models overdoing the east wind inhibition again.  The ECMWF says what east wind inhibition!

That was a joke. He posted about the potential for a big event, but said it is far too early to have much idea.

[epiceast]

 

The guy is certainly a glutton for punishment.  Probably the WRF models overdoing the east wind inhibition again.  The ECMWF says what east wind inhibition!

Graduated in '74, time for the men to go Emeritus. He's riding WRF harder than this forum at this oint.

[snow_wizard]

That was a joke. He posted about the potential for a big event, but said it is far too early to have much idea.

 

Good to know.

[Perturbed Member]

Once the pattern locks in the same areas that get snow initially can repeatedly get snow. Euro is the ideal setup for the Sound. Each event would be around or much below freezing so every flake will count. No initial rain then snow. Just all snow. 

 

Yeah I guess it isn't a coincidence that the upcoming potential events look similar in many ways to what we just had. Hopefully the details change enough to give areas to the south a bit better chance. Not starting at 50F+ and now having a cold Columbia basin will hopefully help a bit. 

 

Looking like a potentially historic cold/snow Feb for the Sound though. 

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Sitting at 16 after having a high of 29 degrees today. I'm impressed already.

 

Euro shows high temps staying in the 20s tomorrow and they don't crack freezing until Thursday, when it barely crawls to 32. Noice!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like that band is going to give the central and n valley some more goodies. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

So the ec shows snow from friday afternoon to Tuesday afternoon with about a 18 hr break.

[snow_wizard]

The only downside is that we have to wait until the end of the week! Ugh.

 

I know...it sucks!  

 

In reality though I will thoroughly enjoy this couple days of clear and cold weather with snow on the ground.  It is gorgeous out there tonight.  Fresh snow cover, piercing clear sky, and bloody COLD!  Currently 20 degrees.

[Brennan]

Good to know.

How much snow did you end up getting?

[snow_wizard]

Yeah I guess it isn't a coincidence that the upcoming potential events look similar in many ways to what we just had. Hopefully the details change enough to give areas to the south a bit better chance. Not starting at 50F+ and now having a cold Columbia basin will hopefully help a bit. 

 

Looking like a potentially historic cold/snow Feb for the Sound though. 

 

I was going to say.  The cold over the Basin will really help you out wit the next event.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Jim how high is a BLI-YWL gradient of 29? Nws mentioned that for next weekend.

[Cloud]

Graduated in '74, time for the men to go Emeritus. He's riding WRF harder than this forum at this oint.

Live by the sword... die by the sword. He wrote a nice piece on the ice today to only then took a parting shot at the Euro.

[snow_wizard]

How much snow did you end up getting?

 

Just short of three inches.  Just enough to soothe me for a bit.

[snow_wizard]

Jim how high is a BLI-YWL gradient of 29? Nws mentioned that for next weekend.

 

I think that might be higher than what we just had.  That would be pretty epic.  To have two rounds like this in February is something that hasn't happened in ages.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Utterly fantastic Euro run! Looks like an amazing weekend for SEA and PDX both. I love how many days are shown with high temps around freezing. Now if the ECMWF ensemble is right about the 10 to 15 day period this month would up there easily for top 5 February since 1850.

I love the sound of that.