February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[Requiem]

I don't buy this, Corvallis and Salem should be above PDX based on the radar coverage and weenie index™ of this forum. Did PDX hire a ski resort manager to do their measuring?

 

I think 1.2 inches is pretty accurate.

[Jesse]

1993-94, 1973-74, 1963-64, 1943-44, 1933-34, and 1913-14 left a lot to be desired as well.

 

Meanwhile, 2010-11, 1990-91, 1970-71, and 1950-51 all featured massive events.

Scattered Flatironing with the backdrop of consistently stellar EPS runs? Anyone have an analog?

[Front Ranger]

Is there a rough analog for what the ECMWF showed as we head into the middle of February?

 

February 1990 is not even in the ballpark for my area.  

 

I just looked at late January and early February of 1916... we had 10 days of at or below freezing temps with copious snow.   But that was two weeks earlier than this is projected.    And it was in the low 60s and dry in my area for almost a week in the middle of February 1916.     One would assume with today's weather models... the end would have been clearly in sight by time the 1916 craziness was in progress.   There is absolutely no end in sight and its already been VERY impressive for western WA.

 

Could this re-write the climate extremes for February in terms of duration?   Sure as hell seems like it.  

 

Way too early to say.

 

But there are very few examples of SEA or PDX going more than a week in February without hitting at least 45. Also very few times that either station has managed more than two or three sub-35 days after the first week of February.

[Esquimalt]

Bryant, I'm reading that Bellingham will get minimal snow? Why would Victoria get that much more not too much more West? 

Cool fraser outflow meets the wet west southwesterly flow and causes heavy snow in this area.  In bellingham, you're sort of shadowed by the mountains on the south westerly flow, as a result, you just get dry northerlies.  I'm sure you will get some thou. 

[ShawniganLake]

Bryant, I'm reading that Bellingham will get minimal snow? Why would Victoria get that much more not too much more West?

The island is slightly removed from the driest Fraser outflow impacts. Also they are occasionally prone to sea effect snow with the NE winds.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Think he’s in Lane now.

 

Yes, moved from Polk to Lane County after my 2 brain surgeries. My caretaker/GF lives here. My twitter explains it better.

[jakeinthevalley]

Not sure how you could mix up the grass seed capital with the hemp seed capital.

Just a few minor differences in the DNA. Totally forgivable mistake.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

RELOAD RELOAD RELOAD.

[Jesse]

Yes, moved from Polk to Lane County after my 2 brain surgeries. My caretaker/GF lives here. My twitter explains it better.

Happy for you for finding that special person.

 

I don’t have twitter or else I’d add you.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Happy for you for finding that special person.

 

I don’t have twitter or else I’d add you.

 

I was decently positive when that band was able to drop a coating overnight.  Was more than I was expecting. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The 4th snowstorm 9 days from now looks kinda dry. FUCCCKKKK!!!!!!!

[Jesse]

I’ve wondered before what this place would look like leading up to a potentially historic biggie. Think we’re getting a taste now.

[Guest Sounder]

18Z shows Portland largely misses out on the Friday/Saturday system, but then gets buried during the following week. Seattle sees snow basically every single day after Friday.

 

 

[Phil]

Eh, 1920-21, 1930-31, 1940-41, 1960-61, 1980-81, and 2000-01 all leave a lot to be desired.

 

3-4s and 9-0s would probably be the next most productive.

 

1999/00 and 1969/70 stick out like sore thumbs, though.

[epiceast]

I’ve wondered before what this place would look like leading up to a potentially historic biggie. Think we’re getting a taste now.

Feels more subdued than '08, I think the forum has aged quite a bit..

[Blizzard777]

2:40 pm and back to 32*

Meltdown avoided

 

So close to a subfreezing high

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This run is totally nuts.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18Z shows Portland largely misses out on the Friday/Saturday system, but then gets buried during the following week. Seattle sees snow basically every single day after Friday.

 

Approaching 3' up here...I think I'm going to have to buy a new pair of underwear.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Approaching 3' up here...I think I'm going to have to buy a new pair of underwear.

Do u have a good snowblower?

[Jesse]

I was decently positive when that band was able to drop a coating overnight. Was more than I was expecting.

I think everyone was happy to see you get snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’ve wondered before what this place would look like leading up to a potentially historic biggie. Think we’re getting a taste now.

 

LOTS OF STRESSED OUT WEENIES! 

[Jesse]

LOTS OF STRESSED OUT WEENIES!

 

I’ve been kind of stepping back from analyzing every run. I know I will just exhaust myself by the time anything gets here.

[Requiem]

These runs are crazy. I'm a little less skeptical of this pattern than I was before.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’ve been kind of stepping back from analyzing every run. I know I will just exhaust myself by the time anything gets here.

 

Yeah, it is tiring...I actually went to bed before the EURO last night...

 

BTW this is weak sauce. 

 

[Meatyorologist]

18z is a step in the right direction for Seattle. Less warm air intrusion from the south, allows for arctic air to invade, much like yesterday except with more moisture.

[Deweydog]

These runs are crazy. I'm a little less skeptical of this pattern than I was before.

The wise ol’ weather miser is starting to shed his cloak of climo!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

These runs are crazy. I'm a little less skeptical of this pattern than I was before.

 

Heavier precip rates would really help at 500ft.

[Front Ranger]

Feels more subdued than '08, I think the forum has aged quite a bit..

 

Or it could be that now this forum has been through a December 2008. Back then, the best this forum had seen was January 2007.

[Deweydog]

Yeah, it is tiring...I actually went to bed before the EURO last night...

 

BTW this is weak sauce.

 

This pattern is so crazy they can’t even fit the H’s entirely on the map!!

[DRG]

Here's why I'm sure the crazy Euro maps will verify in PDX:  Our entire company of 90+ people is moving physical locations this Friday, Saturday and Monday.  We're leaving the central east side and moving farther east, right along the Columbia Gorge.  Sooooo screwed...  

[Front Ranger]

16 at Boeing Field this AM is pretty impressive.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Here's why I'm sure the crazy Euro maps will verify in PDX:  Our entire company of 90+ people is moving physical locations this Friday, Saturday and Monday.  We're leaving the central east side and moving farther east, right along the Columbia Gorge.  Sooooo screwed...  

 

I'm supposed to take my twin 3 yr old boys to a performance in downtown Portland on Sat...wish my GF luck. 

[TT-SEA]

I’ve been kind of stepping back from analyzing every run. I know I will just exhaust myself by the time anything gets here.

 

 

Yeah... it becomes sort of bewildering and impossible to keep it all straight.     I can only really focus on the trends for the next event.   But I know there will be several others to follow no matter what the models show on any given run.  

[Deweydog]

Or it could be that now this forum has been through a December 2008. Back then, the best this forum had seen was January 2007.

Would have liked to have seen a 12-14-08 style meltdown materialize last night. The actual weather didn’t help with that. Leaves me a little leery about having expectations soar too high moving forward. We’ve been pretty fat dumb and happy down here of late.

[Requiem]

Would have liked to have seen a 12-14-08 style meltdown materialize last night. The actual weather didn’t help with that. Leaves me a little leery about having expectations soar too high moving forward. We’ve been pretty fat dumb and happy down here of late.

 

What happened 12-14-08?

[joaqweri]

FV3 is starting to roll out. Thinking it's gonna be in line with this morning's euro.

[BhamMe]

2:40 pm and back to 32*

Meltdown avoided

 

So close to a subfreezing high

Is your graphic the viaduct or tunnel? Guess it works either way. 

[Jesse]

Would have liked to have seen a 12-14-08 style meltdown materialize last night. The actual weather didn’t help with that. Leaves me a little leery about having expectations soar too high moving forward. We’ve been pretty fat dumb and happy down here of late.

I think you are partially joking but I also think you are actually superstitious about this stuff.

[Gradient Keeper]

2-5-19 3:02 PM Model analysis, Snow storm thoughts
Here are some additional analysis and thoughts regarding the POTENTIAL for a Winter Storm (Poopers?) to impact WA/OR Friday evening and Saturday.

It is important to point out a few things and the major differences comparing the air mass ahead of the system Friday evening/Saturday to what we recently had Saturday night into this Tuesday morning. This is based on the 12z ECMWF, GEM, GFS NCEP, WRF, and to a bit lesser extent the FV3. The ICON was thrown out because Hasselhoff doesn't know what the Columbia Gorge is. It's also based on the current air mass, snow cover Gorge/east, and the coming east winds.

1) We already have the cold air in place. We didn't with this last Snow Dusting, Skiff-o-Matic Spectacular Event. We have cold, arctic air especially at lower levels in the Columbia Basin and it won't be going anywhere.

2) We have a snow covered Central/Eastern Gorge and Columbia Basin. It's not likely that will melt off ahead of the system Friday evening/Saturday. That will help the lower levels cool even further creating a 'refrigerator' effect if you will.

3) East winds should develop sometimes Wednesday. We didn't have that with this past cold shot. The widespread snow cover over the Columbia Basin will aid in developing high pressure, likely stronger than is modeled currently. Additionally with clearing skies the next 2 nights over there temps will plummet into the single digits and possibly below zero. This will develop a very strong and arctic cold pool. As east winds increase Wednesday night through Thursday that low level arctic air over the Columbia basin will be sucked westward through the Gorge chilling PDX metro further. A reinforcement shot of cold air. It will also thicken up the cold layer from 4000' to the surface, but ever so slightly less than in January due to higher sun angle in February.

4) As the system develops early Friday evening near Vancouver Island and drops south off the Washington coast early Saturday morning once it's about parallel with Ocean Shores/Long Beach that should begin to induce even more east winds keeping PDX very cold. It is possible immediate PDX metro is the only location that is sufficiently cold enough and areas south of Wilsonville are too warm as warmer air is pulled northward ahead of the low up the Willamette Valley. The exact track of the low is crucial for this. We want the low nearly hugging the Washington Coast as it drops south to minimize the warmer influence off the ocean and thus lessening any warm air advection. If it heads offshore further to our north than we won't see much of anything. *RIGHT NOW* no models show this, so relax. Okay.

5) Another key difference. This time the cold air source is from Northwest Territories, Alberta, Saskatchewan. The arctic trough digs towards us from the northeast with no warming influence from the Pacific ocean. The fact it's coming in sharply from the northeast and not rather down the BC Coast should drive arctic air rather easily into Eastern Washington and the Columbia Basin.

My thoughts: Based on all 12z runs I have growing consistency that PDX metro, Clark County in particular may see a Snow event/Storm late Friday night and Saturday. I'm currently at a 50-60% chance and leaving some wiggle room depending on how the upper level pattern is modeled the next 24-36 hours. If we didn't already have cold air in place going into this system and the snow cover in the Eastern Gorge, Columbia Basin I wouldn't be nearly as confident for snow. Any change in the upper level pattern Thursday through Friday to our north in the Northwest Territories, Alberta, and eastern British Columbia could "make or break" on whether or not we see snowfall. That will need to be watched carefully. The potential for a significant snow storm is there. Stay tuned!