February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

For perspective, I get a lot of snow here in Leavenworth.  When we do end up with bigger snows, the progression of forecasts for our area usually follows the script of just a few inches 2-3 days in advance, and then they slowly up the totals as we get closer to the event.  Of course sometimes we have smaller events of just an inch or two, but so many times the forecast in advance will say 1-3 inches day/1-2 night, then 2-4 day/1-3 night, then 3-5 day, 2-4 night, etc.  Rarely will they call for 8-10 inches 3-4 days in advance.

 

Now for example, the AFD says 4-8 inches with maybe a foot.  Talk about a large range, so they won't put up a forecast with the top amount at this time with that much uncertainty.  

[Jesse]

Caught a nice sunset at Cape Horn earlier.

 

 

[Esquimalt]

Is the Spot Wx output reliable?

[snow maniac]

1-3 inches by 4PM Saturday down the I-5 corridor south of Snohomish County until you reach Oregon.

 

Looks like I get again, dead center snow shadow

[Fircrest]

Wow. A student at UW slipped and fell on the ice and died today.

 

https://q13fox.com/2019/02/06/university-of-washington-student-slips-on-sidewalk-dies/

 

I teach 3rd grade and we also had dozens of kids falling at school today.

This hit me pretty hard. I have an 18 year old daughter who goes to UW. She texted me about this around 1 PM today. I love snow and cold, but this kind of puts things in perspective. I can't imagine what the family is going through...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’d say his expertise lies more in the latter.

 

[Prairiedog]

Yeah, I should be better about these unverified rumors: apparently someone on the FOX12WeatherBlog heard/saw it. Steve Pierce definitely said it though. And Mark does think that the easterly influence is being underplayed for PDX.

Mark never said that.  Steve Pierce did.  Be careful what you post.  He was more aggressive in his low high temps but has backed off on that.   There's already a lot of hyperbole here.  Best to stick with what is actually stated and continue to analyze the models.  It doesn't really matter who said what today.  It matters Friday or Saturday when the action begins.  models will change.  The details will change. 

Here's what he said:  as meteorologists we typically don’t give specific snow forecasts until about 2 days out.   For example for this last snow event, at one point 4 days ahead of time some models were showing 4-6″!  Luckily I didn’t jump on that (shoot a graphic out to Twitter) and once we got within two days of the event we started giving you that general Trace to 2″ forecast.

[Jesse]

Did that rogue FV3 run ever right itself or did we just move into a warmer pattern from that point onward?

[Requiem]

Mark never said that.  Steve Pierce did.  Be careful what you post.  He was more aggressive in his low high temps but has backed off on that.   There's already a lot of hyperbole here.  Best to stick with what is actually stated and continue to analyze the models.  It doesn't really matter who said what today.  It matters Friday or Saturday when the action begins.  models will change.  The details will change. 

Here's what he said:  as meteorologists we typically don’t give specific snow forecasts until about 2 days out.   For example for this last snow event, at one point 4 days ahead of time some models were showing 4-6″!  Luckily I didn’t jump on that (shoot a graphic out to Twitter) and once we got within two days of the event we started giving you that general Trace to 2″ forecast.

 

I said I should be careful the first sentence of my post, it was a mistake (which I will try not to repeat in the future). This looks very marginal for anywhere south of Centralia but here's to hoping.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

00z 3km NAM shows rain right along Puget Sound with snow inland around 5PM Friday.

 

[MossMan]

22.8 currently.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Southerly flow is much stronger and lasts longer on the 00z 3km NAM vs. what the Euro shows.

 

That's most likely the reason for lesser snow amounts.

[jakeinthevalley]

This hit me pretty hard. I have an 18 year old daughter who goes to UW. She texted me about this around 1 PM today. I love snow and cold, but this kind of puts things in perspective. I can't imagine what the family is going through...

Yeah, my daughter is a freshman at UW as well. I happen to live 250 miles away and she is my oldest. Loving her independence and we are are thrilled about that. Shows you how little control we, as parents, actually have.

[Jesse]

Southerly flow is much stronger and lasts longer on the 00z 3km NAM vs. what the Euro shows.

 

That's most likely the reason for lesser snow amounts.

Yukko.

[Esquimalt]

Southerly flow is much stronger and lasts longer on the 00z 3km NAM vs. what the Euro shows.

 

That's most likely the reason for lesser snow amounts.

Spot WX showing 1 to 3 inches for much of the puget sound.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 516 line is approaching Brookings at hour 84 of the NAM though.

 

A little more sparse with the moisture than some of the other models.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

For comparison purposes, 3km NAM shows southerly flow continuing through the Sound through at least 1AM Saturday. Flow finally starts to turn semi-offshore around 3AM.

 

Euro showed a switch to offshore flow by 4PM Friday from King County northward.

[Jesse]

The 516 line is approaching Brookings at hour 84 of the NAM though.

Yummo.

[Perturbed Member]

Wow. A student at UW slipped and fell on the ice and died today.

 

https://q13fox.com/2019/02/06/university-of-washington-student-slips-on-sidewalk-dies/

 

I teach 3rd grade and we also had dozens of kids falling at school today.

 

Just awful 

 

Condolences to the family. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2-4" here by 4am Saturday on the 3K NAM. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

All ready just in case.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ICON absolutely slams the Puget Sound Friday evening.

[snow_wizard]

Southerly flow is much stronger and lasts longer on the 00z 3km NAM vs. what the Euro shows.

 

That's most likely the reason for lesser snow amounts.

 

Thankfully the easterly component to the pressure gradient will deaden the south winds in the ESPL.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Totals by 4AM Saturday...

 

Not too bad for the North Sound and VI. DT Seattle ends up getting near 4 inches which mainly falls after 10PM.

 

[bainbridgekid]

The 3km NAM is bizarre. Plenty of moisture, but shows some falling as rain even around Bellingham.

 

ICON coming in now and shows all snow North of about Centralia.

 

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

00z 3km NAM shows rain right along Puget Sound with snow inland around 5PM Friday.

 

 

Rain in the Fraser Valley? Something's not right there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Outstanding ICON for Puget Sound! That low is just hugging the coast like a MoFo!

[Front Ranger]

All ready just in case.

 

Stocked Up.JPG

Hopefully you have at least as much beer stocked.

[snow_wizard]

22.8 currently.

 

This has turned into a really impressive cold snap, and things have just gotten started.

[TT-SEA]

Outstanding ICON for Puget Sound! That low is just hugging the coast like a MoFo!

 

 

Looks just like the ECMWF and GFS.

[Front Ranger]

lol - NAM precip maps several days out.

FWIW, the 3km almost always under does snow here until it's within 24 hrs.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

lol - NAM precip maps several days out.

 

I think this is where I mimic one of your "How dare people post weather maps on a weather forum!" posts.

[snow_wizard]

The 3km NAM is bizarre. Plenty of moisture, but shows some falling as rain even around Bellingham.

 

ICON coming in now and shows all snow North of about Centralia.

 

 

 

Gorgeous!  The ECMWF has been insisting this will be all snow as well.  At this range the Euro is the way to go on precip type.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Sorry guys I may have told my Seattle and Victoria colleagues that Seattle would get a foot of snow and Victoria would only see a trace. Just couldn't take the thought of another bust like last Sunday.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Gorgeous!  The ECMWF has been insisting this will be all snow as well.  At this range the Euro is the way to go on precip type.

 

For the record, I 100% agree with this.

 

Just showing what the NAM is selling, that's all.

[Esquimalt]

Sorry guys I may have told my Seattle and Victoria colleagues that Seattle would get a foot of snow and Victoria would only see a trace. Just couldn't take the thought of another bust like last Sunday.

Lol. What do you think we'll get from this one?

[snow_wizard]

One thing to keep in mind is the models are showing the 522 thickness line crossing Seattle early Friday evening.  That in combination will all of the cold air already in place makes me doubt there will be much rain.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Lol. What do you think we'll get from this one?

 

I'm going for 2-10" at the moment. Still a ton of uncertainty, going to be another real-time tracking situation.

[Esquimalt]

I'm going for 2-10" at the moment. Still a ton of uncertainty, going to be another real-time tracking situation.

Man. 2 inches would be such a waste. I hope the Euro comes on board, because I know that theres a problem if the euro is still showing 2 or 3 inches.

[snow_wizard]

Just for the record nothing will probably ever beat February 1862 for the Portland area, but I don't really count that because it was continuation of the insane cold that began in late December that winter.  This is for Fort Vancouver.  Just in a class all its own.