MossMan Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Volatility? 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Wonder where the February PNA number will come in. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 At hour 90 the GFS has the low about 150-200 miles south of its 12z run. May come down to how cold the gorge/basin is. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 At hour 90 the GFS has the low about 150-200 miles south of its 12z run. May come down to how cold the gorge/basin is.The basin and Gorge already have decent snowcover, and they are forecast to stay decently cold. It’s getting that offshore flow that I’m hoping for. 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 18z GFS is a bit further south, a bit colder as a result and the low might be a bit stronger too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Jim little An interesting tidbit about Jim was that he was the only Met to work at all 4 major news stations at PDX as a regular. I think he's still the only one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foggymemory Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Hey all! First post but I’m at the PDX airport right now and can report thunder, lightning, and accumulating hail within the last 15 minutes. Totally unexpected! 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Juicy. I like the cold east wind signature, should be great especially since the basin is already decently cold. 2 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 At face value you would think this is a setup that would not suck... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 At hour 90 the GFS has the low about 150-200 miles south of its 12z run. May come down to how cold the gorge/basin is.Well it’s been about as snowy and frigid as it gets over there for this late in the season recently. And that doesn’t look to change by much over the next 5-7 days. I’m sure that could/will help. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 2-19-93 redux... 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 18z. I like. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Yum 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 18z. I like. Snow. Me. Good. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 18z. I like.Yeah. Pretty sexy. Hoping it isn’t a tease this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 FV3 is way south 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 YumVery yummy. Only hope that there can be a little more coverage throughout the valley. 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 I was out in Woodinville this morning east of downtown and they are really hanging onto the snow cover really well. Sitting at 38* this morning, after a low of 30*. Too much snow shadow in those maps. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Well it’s been about as snowy and frigid as it gets over there for this late in the season recently. And that doesn’t look to change by much over the next 5-7 days. I’m sure that could/will help. 18z GFS is a great run for NW Oregon. Not even paying attention to the snow maps, which are great from about Salem-north, it just has loads of potential for NW Oregon/SW WA. Sure it could go a little north and leave EUG or SLE out, or stay south and miss PDX, but a few days out and we have the potential for a big hit, or a big whiff. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 FV3 is way south I’m liking that. Keep the ridiculous southward runs coming since we all know there will probably be a last minute northward trend in the final 2-3 days leading up to the event. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 What we've been missing is a true AR event... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 18z GFS is a great run for NW Oregon. Not even paying attention to the snow maps, which are great from about Salem-north, it just has loads of potential for NW Oregon/SW WA. Sure it could go a little north and leave EUG or SLE out, or stay south and miss PDX, but a few days out and we have the potential for a big hit, or a big whiff.huge kick in the crotch to the 12z 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 SCORE! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 What we've been missing is a true AR event... Didn’t we have one back in December? Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Yeah. Pretty sexy. Hoping it isn’t a tease this time. At least we're looking to have wiggle room this time. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Hey all! First post but I’m at the PDX airport right now and can report thunder, lightning, and accumulating hail within the last 15 minutes. Totally unexpected! Are you sure you've remembered all that correctly? 1 Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 I have a decent view to the NW along the river from my office and I can see the dark clouds slowly building towards the south. These days can be pretty fun. They should also die off and dissipate after sunset so hopefully we can have some midnight lows.Missed this earlier. Yeah, definitely looks like we could see some quick clearing around sunset with the mid levels drying out nicely. Maybe PDX could score another freeze by 12am. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 I’m liking that. Keep the ridiculous southward runs coming since we all know there will probably be a last minute northward trend in the final 2-3 days leading up to the event. ICON and FV-3 are south. 12z CFS looked a lot like the GEM. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 18z GFS is a great run for NW Oregon. Not even paying attention to the snow maps, which are great from about Salem-north, it just has loads of potential for NW Oregon/SW WA. Sure it could go a little north and leave EUG or SLE out, or stay south and miss PDX, but a few days out and we have the potential for a big hit, or a big whiff. Yep but a good step in the right direction, seems like the models are starting to get decent agreement on undercutting and agreeing that early next week we will get some juicy low that will show up somewhere between the central OR to north cal coast and produce cool enough offshore flow to possibly give some lowland snow somewhere under 120 hrs from now. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 FV3 is way south Wow FV3 looks amazing for my area from Sunday. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 CFS gets all 19th Century on is for the first week of March. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 CFS gets all 19th Century on is for the first week of March. The EPS at day 10 hinted that the GOA ridge might not be going anywhere in the long term, keeping things relatively suppressed for us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Hey all! First post but I’m at the PDX airport right now and can report thunder, lightning, and accumulating hail within the last 15 minutes. Totally unexpected!Awesome!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 I was out in Woodinville this morning east of downtown and they are really hanging onto the snow cover really well. Sitting at 38* this morning, after a low of 30*. Too much snow shadow in those maps. Yup lots of snow on the ground still in east king county. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Sunny here. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 The EPS at day 10 hinted that the GOA ridge might not be going anywhere in the long term, keeping things relatively suppressed for us. CFS is interesting in that it has been pretty consistent with a suppressed jet through the first 7-10 days of March, and then some flat ridging which pushes the jet north for a few days of zonal flow before dryng out, and then a return to typical cold spring troughing around St. Patrick's Day. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Jeez... models show Whatcom County getting left out again! Sarcasm... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Snow levels will progressively drop Sunday through Tuesday which will bring snow into the Cascades and northern Coast Range. Monday night into Tuesday may bring snow to the low elevations in the northern portion of the forecast area and possibly a rain-snow mix in the Portland-Metro area however high temperatures will stay in the mid-40s which won`t allow for any sticking to occur. && NWS Portland’s take on things. Considering last discussion they were calling for seasonal weather through next week, this is a definite improvement! Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christensen87 Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 18z GFS creeps some of that cold air back into our neck of the woods next weekend, along with a nice little snowstorm. We know really cold air will be pushing south toward the central U.S. next weekend, it's just a matter of how much will sneak into our area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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