SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 High temps on Saturday... another totally sunny day. I am pretty sure the ECMWF thinks there will still be snow cover down south. It has to be overestimating the effects of the snow cover. Even with a chilly airmass and snow cover the high would be at least in the low 40s at EUG IMO. Even after a low in the teens. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 High temps on Saturday... another totally sunny day. I am pretty sure the ECMWF thinks there will still be snow cover down south. I think it's overestimating that quite a bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Lol... people assuming bad model initialization just to fit their biasI’m trusting the surface analysis a bit more, it’s a concern when it’s so far off. But sorry Whatcom’s being left high and dry! Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 They were really accurate during the 1/5 windstorm earlier this year. Current obs have it at 1008mb which is probably a bit more accurate. Makes it about 1-3 mb deeper than modeled for 18z today. Probably doesn't mean much but it is hopefully a bit more potent than modeled. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Its going to be fun tracking the snow down there tomorrow on here with everyone. I have a really good feeling now for the Portland area. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 I am sure it will be wrong again... but I like the progression on the ECMWF in the 5-9 day period. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 I see the winter storm watch for Portland says 1 to 4 inches right now. Seems pretty reasonable. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Its going to be fun tracking the snow down there tomorrow on here with everyone. I have a really good feeling now for the Portland area.Thanks for all the maps! I’m feeling a lot better about this one. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 I have a feeling most people will ignore the forecast and go to work anyway making for a miserable commute. Fortunately I wake up at 4am for work. So I will be able to avoid it all. Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 I hope some of this snow is drier than what we've been getting or else there are going to be a lot of power outages. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Its going to be fun tracking the snow down there tomorrow on here with everyone. I have a really good feeling now for the Portland area. Usually the euro being on our side would give some confidence but it hasn't been doing so great with this setup for some reason. Feels like it has been a step behind. Hopefully it comes through this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 12Z ECMWF shows total of precipitation of .10 in my area over the next 10 days. And virtually no precip from Seattle northward to Bellingham. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 15min after it stops it will be melted. This is actually true. I saw the ground on the Puyallup WSDOT cam looking all white about an hour ago and now its all gone. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weiner Warrior Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 I have a strong feeling the low is going to shift north last minute and land over oceanside with a more NE trajectory. Southern WA gets nailed. Also the low is slower increasing precip rates but warmer temps causing 8:1 ratios. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 I have a feeling most people will ignore the forecast and go to work anyway making for a miserable commute. Fortunately I wake up at 4am for work. So I will be able to avoid it all.You're closer to the Sun in Sherwood than I am near Estacada so roads may be solidly frozen over here. LOL Wet snow is far worse driving on than packed powder. People will go out no matter what. I think it was last year people with no chains, no studs, bald tires, etc trying to get up W. Burnside. You know it's gonna happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 I hope some of this snow is drier than what we've been getting or else there are going to be a lot of power outages.It’s posts like this^... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 The 12Z ECMWF shows 5.6 inches of precip in Roseburg over the next 10 days... and basically nothing up here. Nature is making up for last year... wet in Oregon and dry up here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Snow chances in Puget sound region coming to a close it seems, have seen accumulating snow in March and April so there’s always a chance but looking less likely, I’m still happy with this winter though and the fact that Portland will cash in at the end too hopefully makes it definitely the best winter since 2008 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 I wonder how super typhoon Wutip is affecting things right now. Officially became the strongest February typhoon on record yesterday. The N. Pacific wave train doesn't normally have a 155 mph typhoon infusing energy in February, so this is a pretty unique situation. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 The 12Z ECMWF shows 5.6 inches of precip in Roseburg over the next 10 days... and basically nothing up here. Nature is making up for last year... wet in Oregon and dry up here. Good to finally have a wet month. I should end up with 12-13" of precip. About 33% above normal. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 It’s posts like this^... I meant for the whole region. 4" of wet snow at PDX would cause power outages and bring down a lot of weak limbs. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 I meant for the whole region. 4" of wet snow at PDX would cause power outages and bring down a lot of weak limbs.Maybe the east wind will dry things out? Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Because it generally is. That’s an easy call based on past history. And I didn’t post about it 28 times a day and try to cram it down everyone’s throat who disagreed, and STILL end up being wrong. Take notes.The fact that it was very weak +ENSO mattered. And the fact that it hadn't snowed yet through January did not matter. Justin was dead wrong. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Still snowing at Sweet Home. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 The fact that it was very weak +ENSO mattered. And the fact that it hadn't snowed yet through January did not matter. Justin was dead wrong. A lot of us were wrong. Gladly. Looks like Central Oregon switching over to snow now. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Still mostly solid snowcover at my house, however I stopped by the lake house and it’s pretty much gone there. Drove up to my old place and they are still holding onto a little bit of snow, slightly less than our new place. Yay I picked right! At home it’s 39.8 with a DP of 32.2. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Sun shining through the clouds here with a few random snowflakes falling. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Mark updated his blog. Calling for 1-3 inches of wet/slushy snow through on Monday for Portland. Snowstorm in the Willamette valley. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Mark updated his blog. Calling for 1-3 inches of wet/slushy snow through on Monday for Portland. Snowstorm in the Willamette valley.Sounds like he may have looked at the latest models. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Sun shining through the clouds here with a few random snowflakes falling.Looks like more precip is moving into your area. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Mark updated his blog. Calling for 1-3 inches of wet/slushy snow through on Monday for Portland. Snowstorm in the Willamette valley.Better than nothing, I suppose. Hopefully that low tracks a bit more north! Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 The fact that it was very weak +ENSO mattered. And the fact that it hadn't snowed yet through January did not matter. Justin was dead wrong.Oh no! How will I ever cope!? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 18z nam a bit north over 12z. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 It's really really rude of you, Andrew to talk about and post your snow totals on a weather forum. It's super offensive. Please stick to your sarcastic troll posts. Those serve a better purpose here. 1 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 I wonder how super typhoon Wutip is affecting things right now. Officially became the strongest February typhoon on record yesterday. The N. Pacific wave train doesn't normally have a 155 mph typhoon infusing energy in February, so this is a pretty unique situation.Could throw a wrench into things for a time. I wouldn’t mind seeing one more trough dig in with a little more of a north to south direction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Mark riding with King EURO. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Mark riding with King EURO.I’m surprised the HRRRRRRR is showing such low snow totals. It seemed quite decent when I looked on tidbits. 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 It's really really rude of you, Andrew to talk about and post your snow totals on a weather forum. It's super offensive. Please stick to your sarcastic troll posts. Those serve a better purpose here. Noted! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Nam 18z looking much better for portland. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Good thing the weather ended up being alright I’m driving to orcas island today so I-5 should be good, hopefully there’s a lot of snow on top of mt.constitution Glad that Portland still looks like they’re gonna get their snow after all Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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