February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[ShawniganLake]

[Geos]

image.pngimage.png

Interesting for this area...

[Katzen]

43 degrees here.

My daughter made it out of North Bend this morning!

Took them two days to shovel out the cars and driveway and a snow plow made it into their neighborhood yesterday afternoon. She said there was black ice everywhere at 7:30 coming home and a few detours between Issaquah and our house as some roads are still closed with downed trees.

 

EDIT: apparently a family member was driving down in to Issauquah, so they left at the same time so they would be able to help each other if one got stuck

[umadbro]

So much cold rain on the GFS to add to this already awful winter.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Quite the trough into California next week.

[ShawniganLake]

WRF cranks up the Fraser outflow again Saturday with Gusts to 50mph. Develops a heavy band of snow for BC with 4-8"

[MossMan]

image.png image.png

Thanks for the maps!

That is showing around 3” for my area...not sure I buy that. Doesn’t sound like we will see anything but cold rain until late next week...possibly.

[Esquimalt]

WRF cranks up the Fraser outflow again Saturday with Gusts to 50mph. Develops a heavy band of snow for BC with 4-8"image.gif

Why is it showing next to nothing at my place?  

[ShawniganLake]

Why is it showing next to nothing at my place?

 

Dry. Strait effect, convergence sets up north of you.

[Bryant]

Why is it showing next to nothing at my place?

To make you ask questions

[Esquimalt]

Dry. Strait effect, convergence sets up north of you.

Lets hope the wealth gets spread around a bit  

[Esquimalt]

To make you ask questions

Sure, whatever you say man.  Just trying to learn a little more about the weather, that's all.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wow the fv3 is cold and snowy starting Wednesday. 

[ShawniganLake]

Wow the fv3 is cold and snowy starting Wednesday.

Huge snowstorm in Washington after day 10 as moisture feeds in underneath the block.

[Chewbacca Defense]

34 with a dew point of 24 at my place. Still have the wind out of the north.

 

Radar shows precip is getting close, I will curious to see what form it takes....

 

Main roads are good in town, neighborhoods (especially in the east hills) still a s***show!

 

Sounds like the Guide was a mess and had to be closed for a while, not sure if they have it back open yet.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

42.4 and feels like February out there.  Pretty normal month so far, a bit chilly but nothing memorable. At least it's better than the snooze-fest of Dec-Jan.

 

I keep looking up stats for Indianapolis weather and they are quite intriguing. Their snowiest day on record is less than a foot of snow, yet they are one of the top 25 snowiest cities in the US.  Basically their snow gets dropped a few inches at a time but almost never in extreme events.  I would venture that most of their epic blizzards happened over a couple of calendar days to keep each day's total under a foot.

 

I love the nuances of our microclimates here.  But I also have never had the pleasure of experiencing an Arctic front.  Seems like living in that type of spot would bring plenty of chances on an annual basis.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Going to be interesting tonight when the main moisture gets here. Bremerton is 39 with a dewpoint of 28. 35 here at home dewpoint 22. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

That east wind off the cascades doing it's trick over here.

[HighlandExperience]

Wow the fv3 is cold and snowy starting Wednesday.

I wish the FV3 was right

[Jesse]

So much cold rain on the GFS to add to this already awful winter.

U cold bro?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I wish the FV3 was right

It's been very good with the pattern besides precipitation totals. Was first to show the monday system warm up i believe.

[Jesse]

Statistically PDX emerged with a strong showing. Makes you wonder if some of those past events weren't as amazing as they seem on paper. The pattern might not have been as persistent in February 1990, and this month might end up colder, but I think most people in Oregon would take February 1990 over this one, to this point at least.

 

I will also point out some people on here mocked me when I compared this February to 1985 or 1990...But overall I don't think those are bad comparisons to this point from an observed weather standpoint in NW Oregon.

Regionally they are terrible analogs. For the Portland area west of 205 down through the Willamette Valley, decent.

 

For my location this month, 7” of snow and an average to date around 35F. Not too shabby at all. I saw your averages and they are nothing to complain about either.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Good, balanced article about the FV3

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/02/14/weather-service-prepares-launch-new-prediction-model-that-many-forecasters-dont-trust/?utm_term=.984a4d557619

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Ryan Maue‏Verified account @RyanMaue 3m3 minutes ago

More

Rough way to run a winter in the Eastern US. 
EPS 12z just finished and I'm very much enjoying the look of this ridging over the Southeast.

 

 

 

[chinook]

Good, balanced article about the FV3

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/02/14/weather-service-prepares-launch-new-prediction-model-that-many-forecasters-dont-trust/?utm_term=.984a4d557619

 

 

#trumpbad

[Bryant]

34 with a dew point of 24 at my place. Still have the wind out of the north.

 

Radar shows precip is getting close, I will curious to see what form it takes....

 

Main roads are good in town, neighborhoods (especially in the east hills) still a s***show!

 

Sounds like the Guide was a mess and had to be closed for a while, not sure if they have it back open yet.

Really feels like a situation where locations further north in whatcom county, especially Sumas, Lynden, etc, may end up with a lot more snow than forecasted

[Bryant]

Sure, whatever you say man. Just trying to learn a little more about the weather, that's all.

It would be beneficial to try and draw some of your own conclusions, then see if others agree with you.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like we are going to torch here in a few hours. Roseburg up to 57 with strong south winds. PDX is always a wildcard, but I bet EUG and SLE hit the mid 50s later this afternoon. It will be short lived of course as the magically 528 line makes an appearance later tonight.

[MossMan]

Wow the fv3 is cold and snowy starting Wednesday.

My gut is not feeling it...which means absolutely nothing. If we did end up getting a big round 2 later next week...that would about seal the deal for being one of the greatest February’s on record...for Washington State anyway.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Regionally they are terrible analogs. For the Portland area west of 205 down through the Willamette Valley, decent.

 

For my location this month, 7” of snow and an average to date around 35F. Not too shabby at all. I saw your averages and they are nothing to complain about either.

 

West of 205 and down through the valley those events were probably more significant, but yes for the region as a whole this has been a bit more top tier than that, and should continue to be. In the totality of the month it is likely this month will easily surpass those months even for the valley, and especially if we can squeeze in some kind of south valley snow event. Up here we are on track for a very cold month. My current monthly mean of 33.2 would be 2nd coldest all time for February behind 1989. I would imagine the 2nd half of the month is a bit warmer, but up here we don't have the same kind of seasonal warming into late February areas below 1000' have. Next week should put together some really solidly cold/chilly days. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

#trumpbad

Trump did not invent the FV3, and at least he is willing to put in money to make the US models as good as the European models.  In the long run the FV3 will probably be much better than the GFS (did you read the article?) but IMO they are pushing the release a bit too soon before they can make some of the obvious changes that they need to.  In reality, they are tweaking all the models (including the Euro) all the time.   And there is a place on this forum for political opinions, and this is not it.

 

[GHweatherChris]

Rain/snow mix, surprising for here today.

[chinook]

Trump did not invent the FV3, and at least he is willing to put in money to make the US models as good as the European models.  In the long run the FV3 will probably be much better than the GFS (did you read the article?) but IMO they are pushing the release a bit too soon before they can make some of the obvious changes that they need to.  In reality, they are tweaking all the models (including the Euro) all the time.   And there is a place on this forum for political opinions, and this is not it.

 

 

satirical hashtags elude you and yes I read the entire article [plus most of the 50 comments that followed at the time of my reading] btw...I don't disagree with anything you pointed out.  

 

thanks for your valued input.  

 

#triggered

[Timmy Supercell]

45 degrees. Heatwave! 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Still 42 with light rain. Let’s see how warm we get.

[GHweatherChris]

Was all snow, albeit big sloppy flakes when we left our house for daughter's dentist appointment, here in Aberdeen proper it is trying to switch to all snow as well!!

[MossMan]

Seeing heavy echos on the radar around Tacoma, anyone down there seeing anything other than liquid?

[Blizzard777]

Out running errands and to my surprise I’m getting positive splats on windshield under this heavy shower

Must be some good cold air above me.

[Blizzard777]

Forgot to add temp. On car dash read 39

[MikeInEverett]

41 degrees has never felt so warm!!