February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Environment Canada has issued a snowfall warning for yyj which really surprised me given how marginal the situation is. They’re putting their balls on the line stating the afternoon commute will be difficult

 

They have a tendency to do this in overrunning situations. I'm pretty sure we'll see a bit of wet snow today, but nothing I'd consider meeting the warning criteria. That said, it's nice to see the NE winds strengthening this morning and 850mb look to stay below freezing the entire time.

[ShawniganLake]

19F here this morning. Also dropped to at least 19F at Victoria YYJ which would be a record.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

34 and snowing here dewpoint 28.

[ShawniganLake]

Environment Canada has issued a snowfall warning for yyj which really surprised me given how marginal the situation is. They’re putting their balls on the line stating the afternoon commute will be difficult

The city might end up pretty borderline but I bet the western communities, saanich peninsula and and malahat north see at least 2-3".

[MossMan]

34 and snowing here dewpoint 28.

D**n it I forgot to check my DP before leaving!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

d**n it I forgot to check my DP before leaving!

You're dewpoint is 40.

[High Desert Mat?]

24 and has been snowing since about 3am in Redmond. Ow I’m in madras and it’s also 24 with about 2” snow as well. Great February so far.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The mid-week trough is a bit watered down on the 12z runs. The one following it looks pretty stout on the GFS and ICON.

 

Chilly airmass this weekend too.

[Jesse]

East winds have really ramped up here. Gusts in the 30-35mph range. Temp is 37.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yesterday was my 11th straight sub-40 high. 38/32. Low of 33 this morning, so probably going to be my first day in awhile with a low above freezing We'll see how warm things get later on. Very warm airmass overhead right now will cool dramatically by early tomorrow morning. Low level flow goes southerly tomorrow though which is why in the valley it should be a warmer day even with a much cooler upper level airmass. 

 

So far this month.

 

Avg Max: 38.3

Avg Min: 28.0

Precip: 5.67"

Snow: 25.0"

[Omegaraptor]

Redding got 10” of snow, Eureka got snow, subtropical desert Las Vegas got snow, even Hawaii of all places is breaking snowfall records.

 

I hate Failshington County. Northernmost subtropical climate on the west coast. Guess what? Despite the massive dumps the last couple of days we’re still probably going to finish the month with rainfall right around normal.

 

At least the pow in the mountains is absolutely amazing. Skiing was epic yesterday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wind advisory just posted for the Central and Southern Willamette Valley this afternoon. Possibility of a strong brief burst of high winds as the low ejects northward 

[Timmy Supercell]

KLMT has picked up around an inch of rain over the last 12+ hours!

 

The record for February 14 is 0.67" in 1981 at least according to wunderground.

 

http://i65.tinypic.com/ev47l5.jpg

[antipex]

The mid-week trough is a bit watered down on the 12z runs. The one following it looks pretty stout on the GFS and ICON.

 

Chilly airmass this weekend too.

 

 

We do have to confront the fact that we're going into the second half of February and eventually March. Even if troughs continue it will be moderated compared to what's possible earlier in the season.

[Esquimalt]

They have a tendency to do this in overrunning situations. I'm pretty sure we'll see a bit of wet snow today, but nothing I'd consider meeting the warning criteria. That said, it's nice to see the NE winds strengthening this morning and 850mb look to stay below freezing the entire time.

Pretty dry so we might be good for some evaporative cooling

[SilverFallsAndrew]

KLMT has picked up around an inch of rain over the last 12+ hours!

 

http://i65.tinypic.com/ev47l5.jpg

 

That is FANTASTIC news for Klamath Basin farmers. Especially since a lot of that was probably snow higher up. Looks like you guys are under a snow advisory for tonight.

[Timmy Supercell]

That is FANTASTIC news for Klamath Basin farmers. Especially since a lot of that was probably snow higher up. Looks like you guys are under a snow advisory for tonight.

 

I've had a few literal downpours out of this. I usually don't start getting this kind of rain until sometime in March/April.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Because Eugene has been relatively mild compared to PDX and even SLE I guess I didn't realize how chilly it has been in SW Oregon. Medford running a -5 departure on the month and had 2.1" of snow last week. K-Falls over a -6 temp departure. 

[Jesse]

Pretty strong rain band about to hit the Portland area.

[epiceast]

That is FANTASTIC news for Klamath Basin farmers. Especially since a lot of that was probably snow higher up. Looks like you guys are under a snow advisory for tonight.

But 1500 cattle lost in Sunnyside due to Blizzard conditions 

[Blizzard777]

39.7 already! Just got done doing some work outside and feels like a warm spring morning. Snow is still frozen though from the overnight freeze (28*).

40s, here I come....ugh

[Jesse]

That is one persistently below average ensemble mean.

 

[Jesse]

Nobody mentioned this but the 12z GFS basically shows a March 1989 redux at 384 hours.

[TT-SEA]

SEA is at 43 already.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nobody mentioned this but the 12z GFS basically shows a March 1989 redux at 384 hour

 

I was slacking this morning...2nd time in 4 GFS runs it has shown an arctic outbreak in the long range. 

[XLVIII43to8]

GFS showing some snow for the PDX area Tuesday morning. 

 

 

How does the Euro look for Tuesday?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SEA is at 43 already.

 

BLOWTORCH

[Cloud]

That is one persistently below average ensemble mean.

 

5226AD10-3A10-436D-980B-B85F05079276.png

It's a shame PDX have had very little to show for during the first stretch. Maybe this second half will produce something memorable.

[Cloud]

SEA is at 43 already.

Every great period has a brief warmup! Finally end the sub-40 days.

 

We may be heading back into the icebox again soon though.

[XLVIII43to8]

Nobody mentioned this but the 12z GFS basically shows a March 1989 redux at 384 hours.

 

You ain't lyin!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's a shame PDX have had very little to show for during the first stretch. Maybe this second half will produce something memorable.

 

Statistically PDX emerged with a strong showing. Makes you wonder if some of those past events weren't as amazing as they seem on paper. The pattern might not have been as persistent in February 1990, and this month might end up colder, but I think most people in Oregon would take February 1990 over this one, to this point at least. 

 

I will also point out some people on here mocked me when I compared this February to 1985 or 1990...But overall I don't think those are bad comparisons to this point from an observed weather standpoint in NW Oregon.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

You ain't lyin!

 

March 1989 didn't really penetrate very far south of PDX, so this map shows a bit more impressive of an airmass.

[Timmy]

Anyone have some euro snow maps ?

[XLVIII43to8]

Nobody mentioned this but the 12z GFS basically shows a March 1989 redux at 384 hours.

 

Wow, SeaTac hit 7° in early February 1989, with a low dewpoint of -12°!

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/monthly/us/wa/seattle-boeing/KSEA/date/1989-2

[FroYoBro]

Another cold and wet day in Portland. At least we are finally getting winter this month. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Someone mentioned 1985 yesterday. Overall it's not a bad comparison. January 85' was much colder in the PNW, but most of that was inversion based. Driest January on record most places. 

 

Overall 1985 is probably an underrated year. It is the coldest year on record at SLE, which is astounding considering it had a pretty hot summer. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Another cold and wet day in Portland. At least we are finally getting winter this month. 

 

About as raw and nasty a day as you will ever find. CLASSIC PNW weather. 

[ShawniganLake]

26F with snow starting to fall here

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ironically the trough during the middle of next week might be slightly to far east for PDX to get the goods...After missing out because the troughs were centered just a little too far west. Still looking for the Goldilocks solution. 

[Cloud]

NOAA issued an El Nino Advisory today through spring. 

 

Says it's weak with 55% chance. 

 

 

Pretty much a coin toss.