March 2019 Observations and Discussion

[OmahaSnowFan]

GFS has 4”+ of QPF, most of it rain the next 10 days. Would be big problems here

[Tom]

After a record setting day here yesterday, some light snow has fallen overnight and left a light dusting with temps still brutal (for March standards). Are these delayed Springs a sign of the times more often than not as we progress in the years to come???

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Looking ahead, the next big ticket storm on deck is now becoming clearer 1(3th-14th) as back-to-back cutters are in the works. Like Hawkeye mentioned, if nature continues to build and add more snow on top of the Glacier to our N/NW, it's going to be tough to get any warm up in the near future once the flow turns NW. If the Euro is right, and the ensembles are pointing that way, those folks in the Dakotas/Northwoods will be measuring snow depths in yards sticks! Unfortunately, my gut tells me their snow pack will be alive and well throughout this month and prob won't melt till sometime in April.

 

After our coast-to-coast storm earlier this week, we came close to approaching the 60% snow coverage...."close, but no cigar"...

 

55.7% CONUS coverage...

 

 

 

 

EDIT: Check that, yesterday's snow coverage was a bit better (56.7%)....Still Impressive to see in early March!

 

[Tom]

This weekend, we will begin to witness signs of Spring as we turn our clocks ahead 1 hour and "Spring Forward".  While we loose an hour of sleep, we gain daylight and the sun will set much later this coming Sunday.  While speaking on the subject of Spring, my prediction when the Spring equinox arrives on the 20th of this month, it will no where near feel like Spring around these parts and likely across our Sub as the coldest part of the LRC cycle pattern will be arriving.  Fortunately, during this period normal highs will be nearing the upper 40's so temps should be bearable but nowhere Spring-like as the entire North American pattern amplifies and a Cross Polar Flow pattern evolves.  IMO, more record cold is on the table as Spring arrives.

 

Wouldn't ya know it, the models have been trending towards more high lat blocking just as we enter Spring.  Not a good thing if your looking for warmth but vise versa if you want Winter's Fury to continue to rage.  An anomalous looking 10mb flow in the extended suggests we are heading towards a MUCH below normal temp pattern post 13th-14th storm.

[CentralNebWeather]

After a record setting day here yesterday, some light snow has fallen overnight and left a light dusting with temps still in brutal (for March standards).  Are these delayed Springs a sign of the times more often than not as we progress in the years to come??? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Looking ahead, the next big ticket storm on deck is now becoming clearer 1(3th-14th) as back-to-back cutters are in the works.  Like Hawkeye mentioned, if nature continues to build and add more snow on top of the Glacier to our N/NW, it's going to be tough to get any warm up in the near future once the flow turns NW.  If the Euro is right, and the ensembles are pointing that way, those folks in the Dakotas/Northwoods will be measuring snow depths in yards sticks!  Unfortunately, my gut tells me their snow pack will be alive and well throughout this month and prob won't melt till sometime in April.

 

After our coast-to-coast storm earlier this week, we came close to approaching the 60% snow coverage...."close, but no cigar"...

 

55.7% CONUS coverage...

 

 

 

 

EDIT: Check that, yesterday's snow coverage was a bit better  (56.7%)....Still Impressive to see in early March!

 

You're right Tom, the 13-14th storm looks like a classic winter/spring storm in this area.  Depending on how much we melt before that, or add rain to the snowpack, it is going to likely cause many problems to the area.  Local cattle producers are struggling as calving season has begun.  My brother in law has lost several already due to the arctic cold and it is hard to get to others with the snow.  He said another storm or 3 is not ideal at all.

[CentralNebWeather]

Interesting tweet from BAMWX showing the CFSv2 for March, April and May, no early spring on this map

 

https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1102924718406074368

[Niko]

Dangerous snowsqualls are expected today w accumulations possible here in SEMI.

[Andie]

After a very cold 22* last night we will pull up to a High of 45*.

Low tonight 28*

But Wednesday we'll see 53* ! So ready for normal........

 

We'll venture into the low 70's on Thurs., Fri., and Sat. WOW!

50/50 chances of rain next week.

[CentralNebWeather]

My spot forecast this morning for the potential storm next week on the 11-13th, 1-3" Monday night, 8-12" Tuesday, 1-3" Wednesday.  Ok then.

[westMJim]

Picked up around 2″ of snow since yesterday afternoon and there is now 6.5″ of snow on the ground here at this time. Grand Rapids is now up to 71.0″ of snow for the season so it looks like GR will end the season very close to average. And yes there is still a chance that GR could end the season above average is total snow fall as we still have the rest of March and April to go yet. Yesterday will go into the record books as the 2nd coldest maximum for any March 4th here at GR.

[Tom]

You're right Tom, the 13-14th storm looks like a classic winter/spring storm in this area. Depending on how much we melt before that, or add rain to the snowpack, it is going to likely cause many problems to the area. Local cattle producers are struggling as calving season has begun. My brother in law has lost several already due to the arctic cold and it is hard to get to others with the snow. He said another storm or 3 is not ideal at all.

Fortunately (for snow lovers) or unfortunately (for farmers/cattle producers), this is the type of pattern that can effect the ag belt and costs of food this year. We saw this happen last year across the Upper Midwest and Canada. In fact, last year Canada had significant crop losses and yield. Are we going to see back to back lackluster growing seasons to our neighbors to the north? Hope not. I think last year our corn belt did very well as precip was plentiful and temps were ideal. Could see a repeat this season after a slow start due to wet/cold soils.

[CentralNebWeather]

Fortunately (for snow lovers) or unfortunately (for farmers/cattle producers), this is the type of pattern that can effect the ag belt and costs of food this year. We saw this happen last year across the Upper Midwest and Canada. In fact, last year Canada had significant crop losses and yield. Are we going to see back to back lackluster growing seasons to our neighbors to the north? Hope not. I think last year our corn belt did very well as precip was plentiful and temps were ideal. Could see a repeat this season after a slow start due to wet/cold soils.

Growing season was tremendous.  We finished with about 40" of precipitation last year, about 15" above normal for my area.  It appears that we might be in for a late planting season.

[BrianJK]

Some pics from up north.  Quite the contrast in landscape between here and there.

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z GFS for next week, wow.

[gabel23]

12Z GFS for next week, wow.

If that comes anywhere to verifying that spells close down city! 

[gabel23]

My spot forecast this morning for the potential storm next week on the 11-13th, 1-3" Monday night, 8-12" Tuesday, 1-3" Wednesday.  Ok then.

Where did you see this? I want to check out my area. Thanks. 

[Tom]

Some pics from up north. Quite the contrast in landscape between here and there.

Epic pics bud! Now those are some deep tunnels!

[CentralNebWeather]

Where did you see this? I want to check out my area. Thanks. 

It was on weather.com and wunderground.com.  I realize those change, but my eyes about bugged out when I saw that.

[CentralNebWeather]

If that comes anywhere to verifying that spells close down city! 

I would guess that would be a much wetter snow which adds more problems to the area.  

[Niko]

Sunshine n clouds, remaining frigid w temps in the teens. Lows tanite near zero or better w squalls.

[Hawkeye]

With the exception of some 30s being pulled up here by the two big systems, the GFS shows no sign of any warming through the 21st.

[gimmesnow]

With the exception of some 30s being pulled up here by the two big systems, the GFS shows no sign of any warming through the 21st.

 

Wow, if this rain doesn't destroy my hill, they could keep it open until April if GFS temps verify. That's insane, I've been going there for almost 10 years and never seen them make it that long. Usually it's a fight to make it to St Patty's Day, and you're riding through puddles, avoiding dirt spots, and there's just slush on top of ice left. Basically, it's for the hardcore who really like to snowboard only.

 

I went yesterday, it was so cold no one was really there. At one point, I was the only one on the three black diamond runs they have. This time last year everything was melting and I every day felt like it was going to be my last until next season. Since I don't have anything to wakeboard with, that's an eternity.

[gabel23]

Looks to me, at least off tropical tidbits, next weeks storm is stronger. Anyone who can post a snow map that would be great!

[Stacsh]

Looks warm and dry enough for a time Saturday to clear the sidewalks.  Be nice to finally take the new twins for a walk!

[Stormhunter87]

Looks warm and dry enough for a time Saturday to clear the sidewalks. Be nice to finally take the new twins for a walk!

Only reason I want spring my little one is dying to get outside.

[Hawkeye]

12z Euro 10-day snow total

 

[Stormhunter87]

12z Euro 10-day snow total

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019030512_240_5660_323.png

Wow Soiux falls gets pounded, well pretty much all of eastern South Dakota.

[Hawkeye]

One nice thing I noticed on the euro.... the second big system pulls 50s up to southern and eastern Iowa.  It's brief, but it would feel nice and help melt our glacier.

[Grizzcoat]

Euro has a massive rain event March 13th and 14th that brings rain all the way to the Canadian Border in MN-- with the  good potential for more snow this wkend in MN- this would be an almost worst case event with temps pushing 50F ( near the Twin Cities) on the 14th-- NOT GOOD>

[Tom]

Is nature lining up one more last Big push of Winter-like conditions for later this month?? I'm starting to see things lining up in the Strat and an unusual late season SSW burst across Eurasia. How many times or examples we have seen this season when seemingly events/storms line up in harmony??? Check this out, we welcome the Spring Solstice on March 20th and low and behold, most of the LR models are seeing a rather strong indication that a SSW event is brewing up later this month across Eurasia which in turn creates a Cross Polar Flow into N.A. Mind you, this is when the LRC also suggests the coldest period of the 4th cycle to occur.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not to mention, you can already start to see what is happening across Russia/Eurasia at 10mb....I wonder if this behavior in the Strat has anything to do with low Solar??? The idea for a major late season cold push for the last 2 weeks of the month is certainly in the cards and may last into the 1st week of April before we can finally break out of this once and for all.

 

 

 

[Tom]

Another bitter cold morning here in Chitown as the temp made it down to +9F. The only silver lining is that winds are calm. Is the cold wearing down on you?

[East Dubzz]

We hit negatives again (-1), which is a few degrees lower than originally forecasted.

 

I am definitely ready for this cold to be over.

[Stormhunter87]

Another bitter cold morning here in Chitown as the temp made it down to +9F. The only silver lining is that winds are calm. Is the cold wearing down on you?

Only reason it is for me is the kiddo. She loves being outside so it's been hard not getting her out.

[Tom]

Only reason it is for me is the kiddo. She loves being outside so it's been hard not getting her out.

How old is she?

[Niko]

Sunny and temps at 7F after a low of 1F.

[westMJim]

With yesterdays 4.3" of snow Grand Rapids is now at 75.3" for this winter season.  Here in the NW side of Grand Rapids and the Walker area and to the north there now has been snow on the ground for 48 days in a row. And here at my house this morning there is 9” on the ground and it looks very much like mid winter instead of it being March 6^th I had some breaks in the clouds and it got down to 0 here at my house but the official low at the airport was just 11.

[MIKEKC]

Hello Tom,

 

First off, I have been reading over your thoughts and everyone else’s for a few years, love your energy!! You are pretty good at predicting pattern changes. Here in KCMO we have had a very active winter and it’s been big for the snow removal side of my company. (We’re a landscape company, snow money is pure gravy money)

 

As far as the LRC forecasting tool...I see many good things about it, but many things that are still unpredictable.

 

My question to you, if we’re truly cycling, where is the 40 day blow torch that occurred across the country from Dec. 10th through about Jan. 20th. Remember? We were all wondering where winter was and when it was going to snow. This warm part of the pattern never cycled back through.

[Stormhunter87]

How old is she?

Almost a year old. Her and the pup are getting stir crazy lol

[Minny_Weather]

Hello Tom,

 

First off, I have been reading over your thoughts and everyone else’s for a few years, love your energy!! You are pretty good at predicting pattern changes. Here in KCMO we have had a very active winter and it’s been big for the snow removal side of my company. (We’re a landscape company, snow money is pure gravy money)

 

As far as the LRC forecasting tool...I see many good things about it, but many things that are still unpredictable.

 

My question to you, if we’re truly cycling, where is the 40 day blow torch that occurred across the country from Dec. 10th through about Jan. 20th. Remember? We were all wondering where winter was and when it was going to snow. This warm part of the pattern never cycled back through.

Welcome to the board!

[MIKEKC]

Tom,

 

Also, the blizzard that hit western KS up to Omaha a couple weekend’s ago was said to be the part of the pattern that produced 9inches of snow in St. Louis in the second cycle and a wet storm in cycle one. Now, this storm tracked 500+ miles farther to the NW then the previous cycles, Lezak claimed the storm went farther NW because of the positive AO.

 

Well, just this last Saturday and Sunday the storm tracked south hitting KC and folks to the south of KC with the same positive AO. So, how can it be both. My argument was that the AO didn’t matter but Lezak used it as an excuse for a storm tracking much farther north then previous cycles. He claimed the LRC nailed the storm but how could you of predicted that from 50, 100 days out like he claims he did when in previous cycles it tracked south of St. Louis?

[MIKEKC]

Welcome to the board!