May 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Minny_Weather]

SPC is unimpressed by tornado potential Friday, as well as severe wx potential in general Saturday. Capping is starting to be a concern for tomorrow as well, despite the otherwise awesome setup. I do think we will see a couple storms break through the cap, and I think SPC should have a 10% tornado risk instead of 5%.

[Tom]

JMA weeklies are in and show the nice warmth to build across the MW/S Plains/OV and the SE over the next 2 weeks.  Should bode well for those farmers who need to get crop in the ground who haven't yet in the S MW.

 

Week 1...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_1/Y201905.D1512_gl2.png

 

Week 2...Memorial Day weekend is favoring a warmer pattern across the Lakes and eastern Sub.

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201905.D1512_gl2.png

 

 

Week 3-4....

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201905.D1512_gl2.png

[Stormhunter87]

Interesting timing tomorrow. CME going to hit when the storms are a going. Might be some extra juice for the storms.

[East Dubzz]

Line of storms heading JUST east of here. Man, why has it been so difficult to even just get some thunderstorms around here this spring. So many near misses already this year. 

[Tom]

Here's one of the more impressive looking shelf cloud shots....

 

 

[St Paul Storm]

^ badass pic right there.

[St Paul Storm]

Already up to 75F here before 10:30am. Impressive.

[CentralNebWeather]

Already up to 77F here before 10:30am. Impressive.

77 here also at 10:30 AM with a 58 dew.  Had the AC running all day yesterday.  Heat might have to be turned on again early next week.  

[Iowawx]

Iowa getting screwed once again this morning. That is one impressive looking line heading towards Chicago. Would love to see some pictures from Chicago! 
 

Based on how these storms developed, I am not feeling good about this "active" pattern here. We will see how things evolve here. Cedar Rapids for whatever reason struggles to get good storms here. I'm getting tired of it.  We do get good rain here, but not so much in the way of severe weather. 

[Jaycee]

Iowa getting screwed once again this morning. That is one impressive looking line heading towards Chicago. Would love to see some pictures from Chicago!

 

Based on how these storms developed, I am not feeling good about this "active" pattern here. We will see how things evolve here. Cedar Rapids for whatever reason struggles to get good storms here. I'm getting tired of it. We do get good rain here, but not so much in the way of severe weather.

 

So far it looks nothing like that shelf over mad town, but it’s gettinng close now so we’ll see

[Iowawx]

Any posters around the Plano,IL area? 

[jaster220]

Nothing to see here people:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/05/14/it-was-degrees-near-arctic-ocean-this-weekend-carbon-dioxide-hit-its-highest-level-human-history/?utm_term=.7d67487db6a1

 

Looks perfectly logical since we entered the phase of passing through the galactic ring in '98. Not sure how long it takes to get through tho?

[OKwx2k4]

Nothing to see here people:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/05/14/it-was-degrees-near-arctic-ocean-this-weekend-carbon-dioxide-hit-its-highest-level-human-history/?utm_term=.7d67487db6a1

Almost scared me there. Whew! Then I remembered a few simple laws of physics and everything got better.

Close one. Lol.

[St Paul Storm]

Was there a tornado warning at some point in the LOT cwa? There’s a warning posted on weather.gov but no info.

 

Edit: nevermind I now see the warning that they had out by Ottawa.

[St Paul Storm]

77 here also at 10:30 AM with a 58 dew.  Had the AC running all day yesterday.  Heat might have to be turned on again early next week.

 

Yep, I had the AC on in my car at lunch. By tomorrow night I’ll have the heat and seat warmers back on. Not cool.

[james1976]

Already 82 here. A t-storm sounds good right now!

[St Paul Storm]

First time we’ve hit 80F here in the last 8 months. Wow that’s bad.

[FarmerRick]

Already over 90 here, records will be smashed today.

[Stormy]

Iowa getting screwed once again this morning. That is one impressive looking line heading towards Chicago. Would love to see some pictures from Chicago!

 

Based on how these storms developed, I am not feeling good about this "active" pattern here. We will see how things evolve here. Cedar Rapids for whatever reason struggles to get good storms here. I'm getting tired of it. We do get good rain here, but not so much in the way of severe weather.

 

I’m feeling optimistic about storms in my area in the next 24 hours especially after checking the models again. I always like when a cold front stalls nearby. And I would rather be in the warm side of the front since storms often tend to take advantage of the warm juicy atmosphere, plus I’m tired of the chilly air! Need to warm up the soil so stuff can grow.

The SPC also shifted the slight risk area a bit further south, just enough to include my area now.

Definitely feeling summer like now with current temp at 87° with the dew point in the upper 60°s. Max dew was 71° so far today on my wx station.

[Tom]

Tornado touchdown near Sandwich, IL...along with 1.5" hail

 

 

 

 

[Stormhunter87]

Tornado touchdown near Sandwich, IL...along with 1.5" hail

 

 

That is a large tornado. Was thinking it was a result of the line but looks like it formed on the edge. Might be why it was so large.

[Iowawx]

Cedar Rapids made it up to 90 today. The forecast high was 85. I am really hoping to get some good storms around here this evening. HRRR suggests we will, but waiting to see what develops on the radar. 

[Minny_Weather]

Got our first 90 of the season today and it wasn't even close. Still 94°F. Seems like it's a state law nowadays that we can't have a single May or September without a day of record or near-record heat.

[Stormy]

I also had a high of 90° today for the first time.

[Andie]

All I can say, Tom is .....Dang!!

 

Is this headed south?

[Iowawx]

Now some really nice looking storms getting going in central Iowa and moving east!

 

Look right on target to get to Cedar Rapids!

[Stormy]

[East Dubzz]

Hopefully a little northward expansion is in order!

[Stormy]

Most of those are severe warned as well though they're isolated yet.

[East Dubzz]

Pretty sure this is the severe storm down by DeWitt, IA. Picture from Dubuque.

[Iowawx]

Now it looks like they are moving southeast. If Cedar Rapids doesn’t get anything from this, we are truly screwed!

[Stormy]

The last pic is of the eastern storm and the other two from the western cells

[Iowawx]

It looks like storms could be expanding but I am still not convinced about Cedar Rapids getting anything from these storms.

[East Dubzz]

It looks like storms could be expanding but I am still not convinced about Cedar Rapids getting anything from these storms.

You look like you’re good to go!

[Hawkeye]

Much of this is going to miss south of Cedar Rapids.  There is a lot of lightning to the west, but I'm afraid it's going to be all bark and no bite for us.

 

All of the cells are currently warned.

[Iowawx]

Epic fail! Seriously, Cedar Rapids just can't get anything! 

[Iowawx]

This town is a joke, I don't know if I have ever seen a place get missed more often than Cedar Rapids.

[Iowawx]

This means now we don't get any more storms tonight because we missed out and the instability is gone. 

[East Dubzz]

Hey, at least you got a storm!

[Iowawx]

Iowa City is going to get crushed and we get absolutely nothing here in Cedar Rapids. 

 

The WPC rain forecast is seriously overdone. No way Cedar Rapids gets more than 0.25" with this pattern.