July 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Jesse]

Low of 62F at PDX

Lows in the 60s with the system have been well advertised for days now.

 

The coast range of Yamhill County was probably even warmer, though.

[TT-SEA]

No real weather to focus on currently, just a little rain, thanks for the suggestion though. Hope your sadness goes away soon!!

I think being obsessed with me is pretty sad... hope it goes away soon!!

[GHweatherChris]

I think being obsessed with me is pretty sad... hope it goes away soon!!

Well, if you would stop replying... pretty simple.

[TT-SEA]

Well, if you would stop replying... pretty simple.

 

 

Always the same.     You chime in about me personally for no reason and then keep it going until I stop responding.     Rarely offering anything else to the discussion on the actual weather.      

[GHweatherChris]

 

Always the same. You chime in about me personally for no reason and then keep it going until I stop responding. Rarely offering anything else to the discussion on the actual weather.

Oh well

[SilverFallsAndrew]

54 and cloudy this morning when I left the house. Picked up 0.32" of rain since yesterday evening. 

[Jesse]

Then, week-2 a transition to more EHEM-based forcing occurs (still not a clean wavenumber) which would typically enhance the Aleutian High/western trough to some extent, but the AAM/wavetrain cycle looks somewhat less favorable for such a pattern.

 

Interesting. Week-2 could go either way, I guess? I’m surprised the pattern isn’t warmer now, but could there be a warm interlude at some point? Delayed-and-shortened-but-not-denied warm-up? Would be the opposite of my initial prediction of the monthly pattern progression.

 

So warm/cold in the short/long term until further notice/ending today?

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Ended up with 0.18" of rain last night. The radar looks promising for some more showers today.

[TacomaWaWx]

Picked up 0.19” last night and another 0.04” so far this morning with a few showers still moving NE into the area out of the SW interior. Currently 61 degrees after a low of 60. Yesterday was the wettest day we’ve had here in Tacoma since May 25th, when we recieved 0.23”. Total rainfall so far is 0.23” as well over the last 24 hours adding up to 0.34” for the month.

[TacomaWaWx]

We recorded more rainfall in a 9 hour window last night than all of the month of June. If we get another 0.01”, this will be the rainiest 24 hour period here in Tacoma since April 13th.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Then, week-2 a transition to more EHEM-based forcing occurs (still not a clean wavenumber) which would typically enhance the Aleutian High/western trough to some extent, but the AAM/wavetrain cycle looks somewhat less favorable for such a pattern.

 

Interesting. Week-2 could go either way, I guess? I’m surprised the pattern isn’t warmer now, but could there be a warm interlude at some point? Delayed-and-shortened-but-not-denied warm-up? Would be the opposite of my initial prediction of the monthly pattern progression.

 

Yeah, I've been humbled for what's happened so far in July. I'm also surprised that we haven't been warmer. My guess is we stay cool/seasonal for the next 2 weeks before a week long warm event to end July into early August. Then we go back to more of a troughy pattern for much of August.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Pleasant 67F out there with showers. We have had 0.11" since yesterday.

[TacomaWaWx]

Yeah, I've been humbled for what's happened so far in July. I'm also surprised that we haven't been warmer. My guess is we stay cool/seasonal for the next 2 weeks before a week long warm event to end July into early August. Then we go back to more of a troughy pattern for much of August.

It’s hard to say but if I had a guess that is probably what’s going to end up happening. BLI brought it up the other day how there’s been backloaded summers like 2012 for example which didn’t see any real heat until early August and into mid September after a cooler than average July.

[TacomaWaWx]

Seems like the gfs is starting to push most of the rain for next week into next weekend up north of western WA into BC for the most part. Still a bit of rain down south but not very much which is fine with me after getting a good shot of mid-summer rain already.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Maybe focus on the weather and not other members?    

 

Tim, we are posting observations from our focus on the weather on the board here.  You have more posts than anyone else by a significant margin, complete with premium maps and useful information esp during the regular season. Do you expect people to not focus on you as a member?

[Jesse]

It’s hard to say but if I had a guess that is probably what’s going to end up happening. BLI brought it up the other day how there’s been backloaded summers like 2012 for example which didn’t see any real heat until early August and into mid September after a cooler than average July.

 

I had two days approaching 100 down here about a month ago. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1148968976636100608

 

[TacomaWaWx]

I had two days approaching 100 down here about a month ago.

well besides the mid June heat wave there’s been no real heat. That was about a month ago now. We hit 82 and 91 those days. Still overall it’s been a fairly cool summer we’re already halfway through and here in Tacoma we’ve had 2 80+ days since June 1st and 4 total for 2019 which is 5 less than any year in the last last 5 years.

[Jesse]

well besides the mid June heat wave there’s been no real heat. That was about a month ago now. We hit 82 and 91 those days. Still overall it’s been a fairly cool summer we’re already halfway through and here in Tacoma we’ve had 2 80+ days since June 1st and 4 total for 2019 which is 5 less than any year in the last last 5 years.

 

Sure. I guess its' just semantics but I wouldn't consider this summer to fall under "backloaded" status with numbers like that, though. We wouldn't consider a winter with a December that ran 2-3 degrees below average regionally and featured a period of 25 degree below average temps mid-month to be backloaded. That sounds pretty frontloaded if anything.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think we'll see a bit of a warm up toward the end of the month. Signs appearing on the models. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sure. I guess its' just semantics but I wouldn't consider this to be "backloaded" summer status with numbers like that, though. We wouldn't call a winter with a December that ran 2-3 degrees below average with a period of 25 degree below average temps at some point in the month backloaded. That sounds pretty frontloaded if anything.

 

Maybe it will be like winter of 2013-14...So a heatwave 2 months after the first. 100 degrees for my birthday in mid-August.

[Jesse]

I think we'll see a bit of a warm up toward the end of the month. Signs appearing on the models. 

 

Member a week or so ago when we were talking about a heatwave taking shape around the 10th, and how it made sense since it would be about 4 weeks since our last bout of heat at that point. I member.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Maybe it will be like winter of 2013-14...So a heatwave 2 months after the first. 100 degrees for my birthday in mid-August.

 

Then a deluge in Sept and goodies in Dec and Feb.  Sounds good.

[TacomaWaWx]

Sure. I guess its' just semantics but I wouldn't consider this summer to fall under "backloaded" status with numbers like that, though. We wouldn't consider a winter with a December that ran 2-3 degrees below average regionally and featured a period of 25 degree below average temps mid-month to be backloaded. That sounds pretty frontloaded if anything.

Right. Like I said it’s just a guess of what might happen based off of whats happened in the first half of the summer. 2012 saw a similar start but it definitely doesn’t mean it’ll be a 2012 copy. Models seem to be starting to trend warmer and drier already but we will see.

[Jesse]

Right. Like I said it’s just a guess of what might happen based off of whats happened in the first half of the summer. 2012 saw a similar start but it definitely doesn’t mean it’ll be a 2012 copy. Models seem to be starting to trend warmer and drier already but we will see.

 

This summer hasn't really been like 2012. Very cool and wet June that year compared to a warm and dry one this year. 2012 would be a good example of an actual "backloaded" summer.

[TacomaWaWx]

Member a week or so ago when we were talking about a heatwave taking shape around the 10th, and how it made sense since it would be about 4 weeks since our last bout of heat at that point. I member.

It did look like a warm up a week ago so it’s hard to say if we’re actually going to see a warm up in another week or so.

[Jesse]

It did look like a warm up a week ago so it’s hard to say if we’re actually going to see a warm up in another week or so.

 

good point time will tell lol

[TacomaWaWx]

This summer hasn't really been like 2012. Very cool and wet June that year compared to a warm and dry one this year. 2012 would be a good example of an actual backloaded summer.

yeah that’s true we had 2.40” for June 2012 and 0.17” for June 2019. Not really sure what year out of the last 15 years is the most similar to this year. Only 2 times where we’ve ended up with more rain in July than June like this year and that was 07 and 11.

[Front Ranger]

Low of 62F at PDX

Domebust.

[ShawniganLake]

yeah that’s true we had 2.40” for June 2012 and 0.17” for June 2019. Not really sure what year out of the last 15 years is the most similar to this year. Only 2 times where we’ve ended up with more rain in July than June like this year and that was 07 and 11.

07 probably isn’t the worst analog. Coming off a nino with low solar. Though I doubt we are heading towards an actual Nina.

 

Note. It was about to get really hot around this time in 07. Not so much this year.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[TacomaWaWx]

07 probably isn’t the worst analog. Coming off a nino with low solar. Though I doubt we are heading towards an actual Nina.

 

Note. It was about to get really hot around this time in 07. Not so much this year.

looking through the years since 05, 07 seemed the most similar to this year. There was a heat wave that followed mid month we hit 93 here on the 11th. Either way analogs aren’t an exact thing since no year is a carbon copy of the either.

[ShawniganLake]

It did look like a warm up a week ago so it’s hard to say if we’re actually going to see a warm up in another week or so.

Late July and early August would be a nice time for some warm weather. I’m going up to the Cariboo for some holiday time. Then we have the long weekend in early August.

[TacomaWaWx]

Late July and early August would be a nice time for some warm weather. I’m going up to the Cariboo for some holiday time. Then we have the long weekend in early August.

Yeah im hoping for some nice weather this next weekend for when im at mt.hood. I also have a few camping trips in August and September that I’m hoping turn out good weather wise. Overall this rain we got was really needed.

[Jesse]

Late July and early August would be a nice time for some warm weather. I’m going up to the Cariboo for some holiday time. Then we have the long weekend in early August.

Aren’t you running like two degrees above average month to date?

[jcmcgaffey]

Aren’t you running like two degrees above average month to date?

People are thinking cooler weather because of the cloudier cooler highs and daytime weather. The warm nighttime temps because of the cloudier weather are what is causing the overall temp to be above average.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This summer has reminded me of 2007 actually.

[Jesse]

People are thinking cooler weather because of the cloudier cooler highs and daytime weather. The warm nighttime temps because of the cloudier weather are what is causing the overall temp to be above average.

I’m sure the extremely localized daily deluges confined to your block probably isn’t helping your perspective either.

[Jesse]

Euro looks cooler than the GFS for this weekend.

[ShawniganLake]

Aren’t you running like two degrees above average month to date?

+1. Lows have been above well average. Daytime highs a little below.