SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 4, 2023 Report Share Posted April 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: I was looking at the first half of April 1975 a lot yesterday. Man what a beastly pattern for cold nights and even cold days at the onset. Although even that month valley spots were flirting with 70 by the 10th or so. Tough to get enough of a continental BITE for the cold nights at this point without sacrificing some daytime chilliness. Yeah, if you look at the past couple of decades it is pretty tough to get continental influence anymore in the early spring, when compared to that 50s-70s period. 2019 was a throwback in that sense. First sub-20 low at Silver Falls in March since the early 70s. Even though Silver Falls has had a lot of cold early spring months since 2006 (Mostly March, and a few April's), they have largely come on the back of cold highs caused by persistent cold onshore flow. 36/30 type days like we have seen this week. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted April 4, 2023 Report Share Posted April 4, 2023 35 WC 31 at almost noon on 4/4 brrr 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted April 4, 2023 Report Share Posted April 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Phil usually owns up to his forecasts and will explain where things went wrong. I’ve never known him to delete a post to cover his tracks regarding a bust. All kind of ironic coming from you since you’re the one who likes to move on as if nothing happened and never face up to it when your thoughts are challenged here. Just when Jesse seems like he’s on the right track… 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted April 4, 2023 Report Share Posted April 4, 2023 HAIL 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted April 4, 2023 Author Report Share Posted April 4, 2023 Just now, Deweydog said: Just when Jesse seems like he’s on the right track… I calls em like I sees em. 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 4, 2023 Report Share Posted April 4, 2023 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Slushy Inch Posted April 4, 2023 Popular Post Report Share Posted April 4, 2023 Cold trough on the 12th. With the big one behind it. Alaska to PNW express. 6 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted April 4, 2023 Report Share Posted April 4, 2023 3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Up to 93.8” of snow on the season. Would be a shame to stop now… That's crazy. Wow. You have me beat by 81.8" lol. Is that a record for you? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted April 4, 2023 Report Share Posted April 4, 2023 Quite the pool of cold air dumping south… April 2008 redux? 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted April 4, 2023 Report Share Posted April 4, 2023 More of a winter looking trough. Great setup for a very strong convergence zone. 4 1 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 4, 2023 Report Share Posted April 4, 2023 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: That's crazy. Wow. You have me beat by 81.8" lol. Is that a record for you? Getting close. 98.5" in 2011-12. That winter was much different though, much warmer overall, and far fewer days with snow on the ground. More just huge storms and then immediate melting. I would imagine 2007-08 and possibly 2008-09 had quite a bit more up here. Edited April 4, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted April 4, 2023 Report Share Posted April 4, 2023 41 degrees here at Noon despite near full sunshine the last several hours. Crazy for April. 2 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted April 4, 2023 Report Share Posted April 4, 2023 11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Getting close. 98.5" in 2011-12. That winter was much different though, much warmer overall, and far fewer days with snow on the ground. More just huge storms and then immediate melting. I would imagine 2007-08 and possibly 2008-09 had quite a bit more up here. A winter, and now early Spring to remember. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 4, 2023 Report Share Posted April 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: A winter, and now early Spring to remember. The consistent cold anomalies from early November on are what I will carry forward with me. Really remarkable in our rapidly warming climate. 2 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted April 4, 2023 Author Report Share Posted April 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: The consistent cold anomalies from early November on are what I will carry forward with me. Really remarkable in our rapidly warming climate. Right there with you brother. One love. ✌ 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted April 4, 2023 Report Share Posted April 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: The consistent cold anomalies from early November on are what I will carry forward with me. Really remarkable in our rapidly warming climate. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 4, 2023 Report Share Posted April 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: Can we get a little more of this plz? 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted April 4, 2023 Report Share Posted April 4, 2023 Made it down to 32 this morning. 77th freeze of the season. Looking like the festivities may not be done yet after some of the model runs this morning. Also here is a pic of another wintery scene this morning! 5 1 Quote 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 4, 2023 Report Share Posted April 4, 2023 1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Yeah, if you look at the past couple of decades it is pretty tough to get continental influence anymore in the early spring, when compared to that 50s-70s period. 2019 was a throwback in that sense. First sub-20 low at Silver Falls in March since the early 70s. Even though Silver Falls has had a lot of cold early spring months since 2006 (Mostly March, and a few April's), they have largely come on the back of cold highs caused by persistent cold onshore flow. 36/30 type days like we have seen this week. Here's a fun stat. Since 1982, OLM has only had three years with record lows in April: 2008, 2009 and 2022. 2008 did it three times. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 4, 2023 Report Share Posted April 4, 2023 1 hour ago, bainbridgekid said: 41 degrees here at Noon despite near full sunshine the last several hours. Crazy for April. Gorgeous spring (winter) day in Seattle. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted April 4, 2023 Report Share Posted April 4, 2023 Getting some mixed precip showers (rain/graupel) now. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ken in Wood Village Posted April 4, 2023 Report Share Posted April 4, 2023 There are a lot of pop up showers happening. Wonder if we could squeak out a thunderstorm or two with these showers 🌩 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 4, 2023 Report Share Posted April 4, 2023 Up to 37, outside shot at 40 today! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted April 4, 2023 Report Share Posted April 4, 2023 sun popped out for a minute. we hit 40!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 4, 2023 Report Share Posted April 4, 2023 2 hours ago, Omegaraptor said: Wonder how long before this post is quietly deleted. Bruh I didn’t even delete my ice age/-30C 850s posts. This one is vanilla milquetoast by comparison. FWIW, I made the call for mid/late April warm-up before models suggested it (albeit wrongly so). I didn’t see a reason to doubt a dateline MJO reflection, and neither did numerical guidance. But alas, the climate system is resisting that type of evolution, which has bigger implications for ENSO/low pass evolution this year. Seems a quick, high amplitude transition into El Niño is less likely, where-as the likelihood of a gradual, prolonged transition is increasing. Definitely a “cold phase” tendency to the NH pattern now, which is dissociated from ENSO at the moment. 4 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 4, 2023 Report Share Posted April 4, 2023 FWIW the CPC was originally projecting a warm/dry outcome in the West/Southwest this month. Even I was skeptical of the latter, particularly over the interior and Southwest. So yeah, my prediction might end up being wrong, but if that’s the case, theirs is more wrong. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted April 4, 2023 Report Share Posted April 4, 2023 Yesterday was my 3rd straight day with accumulating hail. I-5 was covered about an inch deep in South Everett as I drove home last night around midnight. 2 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted April 4, 2023 Report Share Posted April 4, 2023 Had some frozen precip one year ago today. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted April 4, 2023 Report Share Posted April 4, 2023 cells bubbling North and West of Spokane, wonder if we see some more GRAUPEL? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted April 4, 2023 Report Share Posted April 4, 2023 Hasn’t hailed here for hours. Kinda concerning. 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive1010 Posted April 4, 2023 Report Share Posted April 4, 2023 I hope we can squeeze a thunderstorm out of these widespread showers. I'm here a little west of Portland and see towering cumulus clouds building upwards. 1 Quote Weather! Atmospheric conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive1010 Posted April 4, 2023 Report Share Posted April 4, 2023 Lots of scud that look like funnels Quote Weather! Atmospheric conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 4, 2023 Report Share Posted April 4, 2023 OT but interesting. Have had a disturbing number of wildfires out here this spring. Many days filled with the pungent smell of smoke, to the point that you almost expect to smell it when going outside. Soil is so dry most trees are still dormant despite the incessant torching. Have never seen anything like it. Feels like we’re the new CA. 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted April 4, 2023 Report Share Posted April 4, 2023 21 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Hasn’t hailed here for hours. Kinda concerning. If this keeps up it will never hail again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ken in Wood Village Posted April 4, 2023 Report Share Posted April 4, 2023 The pictures are of the shower to my NE. Looks impressive 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted April 4, 2023 Report Share Posted April 4, 2023 2 hours ago, Phil said: Bruh I didn’t even delete my ice age/-30C 850s posts. This one is vanilla milquetoast by comparison. FWIW, I made the call for mid/late April warm-up before models suggested it (albeit wrongly so). I didn’t see a reason to doubt a dateline MJO reflection, and neither did numerical guidance. But alas, the climate system is resisting that type of evolution, which has bigger implications for ENSO/low pass evolution this year. Seems a quick, high amplitude transition into El Niño is less likely, where-as the likelihood of a gradual, prolonged transition is increasing. Definitely a “cold phase” tendency to the NH pattern now, which is dissociated from ENSO at the moment. The original post was mostly sarcastic but probably didn't come off as such, and to that I do apologize Phil. Very interesting seeing as to how changes in the outlook reflect changes in the way the big-picture pattern is unfolding. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted April 4, 2023 Author Report Share Posted April 4, 2023 2 hours ago, Phil said: Bruh I didn’t even delete my ice age/-30C 850s posts. This one is vanilla milquetoast by comparison. FWIW, I made the call for mid/late April warm-up before models suggested it (albeit wrongly so). I didn’t see a reason to doubt a dateline MJO reflection, and neither did numerical guidance. But alas, the climate system is resisting that type of evolution, which has bigger implications for ENSO/low pass evolution this year. Seems a quick, high amplitude transition into El Niño is less likely, where-as the likelihood of a gradual, prolonged transition is increasing. Definitely a “cold phase” tendency to the NH pattern now, which is dissociated from ENSO at the moment. Would be wonderful if we could switch out if the post 2013 regime, especially in the warm season, but that’s probably just wishful thinking. 1 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted April 5, 2023 Report Share Posted April 5, 2023 Fred Meyer has olive trees on discount. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ken in Wood Village Posted April 5, 2023 Report Share Posted April 5, 2023 Looks like a shower is about to hit me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ken in Wood Village Posted April 5, 2023 Report Share Posted April 5, 2023 Looking like a part of Illinois could be having a tornado. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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