September 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Andie]

Hurricane Humberto sat stationary and scoured the Bahamas. It don't know what's the cause of this, but the Bahamas will be a blank island. They'll have to start all over.

 

"Humberto had maximum sustained winds of 50 miles per hour (85 km per hour) with higher gusts, and was expected to become a hurricane by Sunday night, the Miami-based NHC said on Saturday.

 

It barely moved during Saturday morning, the NHC said, and was located about 30 miles (45 km) east-northeast of Great Abaco Island. It was forecast to resume a slow motion toward the northwest and north later in the day.

 

Forecasters said the storm could drop up to six inches (15.24 cm) of rain in some areas but that it was not expected to produce significant storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas, which were hammered earlier this month by Hurricane Dorian.

 

Humberto could, however, hamper relief efforts in the area where thousands of structures were flattened and 70,000 people were left needing shelter, food and water and medical aid."

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-storm-dorian/tropical-storm-humberto-lashes-bahamas-seen-becoming-hurricane-idUSKBN1VZ0CI

[CentralNebWeather]

I feel for you guys out west. Holy cow, I don't know how you can cope with the duration of the heat and humidity for that long. We've been lucky to get breaks from the warmth/humidity over the last few weeks. It would drive me a little crazy to have to deal with that much heat.

Local Mets have mentioned how unusual this has been and especially the duration. The high humidity is just not common this time of September. It can hit 90 but usually with red flag warnings.

[OKwx2k4]

Hurricane Humberto sat stationary and scoured the Bahamas. It don't know what's the cause of this, but the Bahamas will be a blank island. They'll have to start all over.

 

"Humberto had maximum sustained winds of 50 miles per hour (85 km per hour) with higher gusts, and was expected to become a hurricane by Sunday night, the Miami-based NHC said on Saturday.

 

It barely moved during Saturday morning, the NHC said, and was located about 30 miles (45 km) east-northeast of Great Abaco Island. It was forecast to resume a slow motion toward the northwest and north later in the day.

 

Forecasters said the storm could drop up to six inches (15.24 cm) of rain in some areas but that it was not expected to produce significant storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas, which were hammered earlier this month by Hurricane Dorian.

 

Humberto could, however, hamper relief efforts in the area where thousands of structures were flattened and 70,000 people were left needing shelter, food and water and medical aid."

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-storm-dorian/tropical-storm-humberto-lashes-bahamas-seen-becoming-hurricane-idUSKBN1VZ0CI

Many forget the 2005 hurricane season, but things could easily be worse. Or if 3 of them lined up back-to-back like in Aug-Sep 2017.

 

Andrew (1992) was nearly identical to Dorian except it missed the trough and crossed Florida. The Great Hurricane of 1806 took Dorian's path. Grazed Fla, hit NC and scoured all the way up the coast.

 

I guess my point is, it happens. Our view of the world is so much bigger than it was even in 1992 when the whole world learned Andrew's name forever.

[Hawkeye]

Humberto shouldn't be much of a problem for the Bahamas.  Even though the center is near Abaco, nearly all the rain and wind is north and east of the center.  There doesn't appear to be much going on over Abaco.

[Andie]

They received heavy rain and wind in the midsts of a major recovery.

I'd say it qualifies as a problem. The place is absolutely flattened.

[Andie]

Many forget the 2005 hurricane season, but things could easily be worse. Or if 3 of them lined up back-to-back like in Aug-Sep 2017.

Andrew (1992) was nearly identical to Dorian except it missed the trough and crossed Florida. The Great Hurricane of 1806 took Dorian's path. Grazed Fla, hit NC and scoured all the way up the coast.

I guess my point is, it happens. Our view of the world is so much bigger than it was even in 1992 when the whole world learned Andrew's name forever.

Yes, but if you're the ones hit, a world view isn't important. And hurricane season isn't over.

Hopefully, paths will change and give the Bahamas a break.

[Tom]

We are having a splendid day at Gilson Beach which is one of the north shore beaches of Chicago. Lots of families out enjoying the weather and a calm lake. It’s nearly flat with less than 1ft wave heights. Slight SE component brings in a cooler lake wind. #perfection

[Niko]

What a beautiful day outside today as temps remain in the low 70s and no dew to speak of. I am firing up a grill lata and setting up a bonfire tanite as temps cool of in the low 50s.

[Niko]

We are having a splendid day at Gilson Beach which is one of the north shore beaches of Chicago. Lots of families out enjoying the weather and a calm lake. It’s nearly flat with less than 1ft wave heights. Slight SE component brings in a cooler lake wind. #perfection

Next time I go to Chicago, I will definitely go to that beach. Looks amazing.

[jaster220]

For a switch (happens occasionally with bigger events) Marshall was included in GRR's regional event summary for the rain storm this past Thursday. Not only that, but they included a report from the city proper confirming my hunch that we here in town scored better than the airport south of town:

 

...CALHOUN COUNTY...
BATTLE CREEK 1.92 IN 0840 AM 09/12 42.32N/85.11W
MARSHALL 1.55 IN 0800 AM 09/12 42.27N/84.97W
MARSHALL BROOKS FIELD 1.13 IN 0835 AM 09/12 42.23N/84.95W

 

Combined with the 0.54 on my b-day (Fri) I've ended my drought with 2.09" of much welcomed moisture. I'm a happy camper for that fact. 

 

(btw, I checked out those coordinates, and it's an address about 4/10 mi due west of my place)

[jaster220]

Many forget the 2005 hurricane season, but things could easily be worse. Or if 3 of them lined up back-to-back like in Aug-Sep 2017.

 

Andrew (1992) was nearly identical to Dorian except it missed the trough and crossed Florida. The Great Hurricane of 1806 took Dorian's path. Grazed Fla, hit NC and scoured all the way up the coast.

 

I guess my point is, it happens. Our view of the world is so much bigger than it was even in 1992 when the whole world learned Andrew's name forever.

 

Needless to say, for those hardest hit by Dorian I don't see how it could be "much worse", although Andrew's attack with the whole embedded wind streaks wreaked some serious structural havoc without the ocean's help. Oh, and I thought the (4) strikes on FL in 2004 ranked up there in the annals of 'cane lore as well. '05 tho, yeah nothin like a herd of CAT-5 monsters, eh?

[Iowawx]

The Iowa-Iowa State football game has been delayed twice today due to storms moving into the Ames area. 

 

It looks like those storms are maintaining their strength as they move east. We should get some storms in Cedar Rapids later on. 

[Hawkeye]

These storms moving through Iowa today have been invisible to the models.  The HRRR and 3kNAM continue to show tonight's storms popping from wc-nc Iowa later this evening, but I don't know what effect the current storms will have on that.

[jaster220]

The Iowa-Iowa State football game has been delayed twice today due to storms moving into the Ames area. 

 

It looks like those storms are maintaining their strength as they move east. We should get some storms in Cedar Rapids later on. 

 

They sure seem to have their sights set on CR area. Even a TOR showing up near EIdora. Good luck

[jaster220]

Pretty impressive Non-tornadic destruction in Grand Rapids Thursday! 

 

 

 

GRR recap:

 

https://www.weather.gov/grr/20190911_severeweather

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

Under a FFW in Cook Cnty north of I-88 which includes yby correct? GRR's AFD Fri pm noted that these SW's often get more amped-up kinda last minute. Me thinks would be a great potential if winter season. Need to keep ENSO where it's at and continue with the dynamics around Lwr Lakes.

[OKwx2k4]

Needless to say, for those hardest hit by Dorian I don't see how it could be "much worse", although Andrew's attack with the whole embedded wind streaks wreaked some serious structural havoc without the ocean's help. Oh, and I thought the (4) strikes on FL in 2004 ranked up there in the annals of 'cane lore as well. '05 tho, yeah nothin like a herd of CAT-5 monsters, eh?

Yeah. You get what I was saying. I wasn't really being insensitive to the situation, I guess I just view it differently. 2005 was the hurricane express. Lol.

 

It's like when tornadoes happen here, at least to me. They happen. Nothing we can do about them. Bad is bad, but I expect to have to deal with them at least 5 days out of any given year. We now have children and young people who are literally in need of counseling because they are being taught to be afraid of weather and that it's their fault somehow. I'm just over that crap, I guess. I don't teach fear about things that aren't controllable. Tornadoes and hurricanes are a part of life.

[Tom]

@ Tom

 

Under a FFW in Cook Cnty north of I-88 which includes yby correct? GRR's AFD Fri pm noted that these SW's often get more amped-up kinda last minute. Me thinks would be a great potential if winter season. Need to keep ENSO where it's at and continue with the dynamics around Lwr Lakes.

Yes sir, if only Winter! I’ll welcome any rain we get overnight, except for our northern burbs. There is near record flooding on some rivers from this weeks heavy rains up north. It’s going to dry out this week anyway so I don’t mind having another drink from Nature.

[Iowawx]

There are some really nice looking storms getting going just to the west of Cedar Rapids as they track to the east. They should be here soon.

[Hawkeye]

There are some really nice looking storms getting going just to the west of Cedar Rapids as they track to the east. They should be here soon.

 

The strong cells are veering south of CR, of course.  Just a bit of light rain, here.  Maybe we can get something later.  The HRRR is trying to keep the best stuff north and east.

[Iowawx]

The strong cells are veering south of CR, of course.  Just a bit of light rain, here.  Maybe we can get something later.  The HRRR is trying to keep the best stuff north and east.

Yes, massive let down. This has happened a lot this summer and I am really disappointed. I would just like to know what has caused this to happen so many times. 

 

There is nothing developing yet, when should the storms tonight get into the Cedar Rapids area? 

[Hawkeye]

It appears Bud in North Liberty is getting a nice series of cells.

 

If we get storms later, it would be in the 1-2am period.  The latest HRRR and 3k NAM continue to focus tonight's storms northeast/east of Cedar Rapids.  Dubuque to Clinton is the hot spot with potential for 2+".  The HRRR has nothing at all in CR.  The NAM has a bit in CR, but nothing as you head sw.

[Madtown]

Gorgeous day in da nort woods!

[Hawkeye]

Unfortunately, radar is looking like Cedar Rapids is done.  The HRRR also keeps shifting the rain farther east.  We sure have had a lot of these busts this summer on days in which storms/heavy rain were expected.  We are running out of these chances this year.

 

Dubuque is looking good for more heavy stuff later.

[Tom]

Been getting a steady soaking rainfall this morning.  Picked up about .50" over the last couple hours.  Nice to see the southern burbs getting in on the action and giving the northern burbs a much needed break.  Looking forward to some tranquil weather over the course of next week.  

[Tom]

As we approach the official Autumnal Equinox on Sept 23rd, when the sun sets up across the N Pole, this is the period with which the "new" LRC cyclical pattern begins to take shape.  It takes a couple more weeks for the new pattern to set up into the mid-latitudes and across the westerly belt, but a massive change typically is seen around the 23rd of the month.

 

With that being said, I've been monitoring the wx pattern in the modeling world near the Bearing Sea/Aleutian Islands around this target period.  Why??  Well, for a couple reasons #1...I've already mentioned the importance of this date, as this day is likely Day 1 of the new pattern up north in the Arctic regions while the mid-latitudes are shifting things out from the "old" into the "new".  #2) Using the Bearing Sea Rule, 17-21 days out from the 23rd is when....Oct 10th-14th...the opening week or so of the "new" LRC.  Coincidence???  The more I study cyclical patterns and LR forecasting methods I find it amazingly fascinating how using these tools line up with each other.  Every day I'm amazed and thankful of the hidden truths we can source from the Universe.

 

So, to elaborate on what I'm seeing using the 00z EPS animation below, the model is honing in on a system near the Bearing Sea/Aleutians around the 19th/20th.  If we are to use these dates, using the the BSR, it can provide us an idea of the possibility of Day #1 of the new LRC (Oct 6th-7th).  The interesting feature I am noticing and paying attn to with this storm is the track of the storm taking a more west/east approach, suggesting to me there will be blocking up north that will influence the storm track.  Not only that, but could there be Back-to-Back systems???  By Day 10, we are fully past the all important Autumnal Equinox and the EPS is suggesting a major Hudson Bay storm/trough.  This, my friends, will be our main event of the new LRC...the "North American Vortex"....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Hawkeye]

I picked up a surprisingly-solid 0.40" of rain last night.  Much of that fell in about five minutes when a very thin band of red crept northeast and moved over my house.  I thought it would just be a one-minute downpour that would drop a tenth, but it was very heavy and lasted a few minutes longer.

 

Bud, in North Liberty, was one of the big winners.  Radar estimate shows one of the heaviest bands right through that area (2+").

[Niko]

Currently cloudy w temps at 64F. Weak, LP area will be passing my area today w scattered showers.  Gorgeous week shaping up w temps in the 70s and some 80s.

[westMJim]

Not much rain here the morning as just a trace fell. So far, this month is almost average. The mean so far this month is 66.2 the 30 year average as of September 14^th is 66.0 so that is a departure of +0.2. At the airport they have reported 2.22” of rain fall and here at my house I have reported 3.83” as the storms last week dropped much more rain here then at the airport. Yesterdays H/L at GRR was 72/59 the average is 74/53 the record high was a very hot 97 set in 1939 and the record low as 36 set in 1953. The warmest minimum was just 74 is 1939 and the coldest maximum was 56 in 1916. Last year the H/L was 82/58.

[Hawkeye]

And the heat and humidity begins.  Our dew is up to near 70 and the temp should reach the mid 80s all week.

[Hawkeye]

From DVN...

 

Rainfall since September 1st:

Freeport IL: 10.45"

Stockton IL: 12.03"

[Niko]

Looks like just in time when "Autumnal Equinox" arrives, that's when it starts getting much cooler.

[Andie]

While North Texas will see temps at or near 98* through Wednesday, fear not, a front will begin to break the heat.

Temps Thursday will see a high of 90* and chances of rain Wed. And Thurs.

it's possible our high 90's days are over or near over. That's pretty normal for us.

 

With rain on the horizon Thursday and Friday, I feel a lot better about Fall being near.

Having experience high 90's into Oct. in the past and very warm Christmases....I'll take this change.

[Niko]

 

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI

405 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019
 

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-160815-

Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-

St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-

405 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019
 

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast

Michigan.
 

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
 

A slight chance of thunderstorms exists today across all of southeast

Michigan. Any thunderstorms that develop will move to the east at 40

mph. No severe weather is anticipated.
 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday
 

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 

[james1976]

TWC has AN temps for all of us through the end of Sept

[Tom]

I just saw THE most incredible footage I've ever seen a storm chaser provide inside a CAT 5 Hurricane, "Dorian".  This video not only shows the immense power of one of the earth's strongest known cyclones, but also shows the sadness of the devastating destruction that is incomprehensible.  My mind is blown after watching this storm chaser inside the eye wall.  At the 12 min mark, the eye wall is approaching as the highest winds and whiteout conditions inundate their storm shelter.  My goodness, that was one wicked storm.  Holy smokes.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DV-PLJq4HD4&feature=youtu.be

[Stormy]

I've had to much going lately to be on here much. Work, a wedding, church, etc.

 

Had a few good storms move overhead last night. Loud cracks of thunder and brief heavy downpours. Got 0.76" of rain, while others in the neighborhood are reporting 1" or more. Maybe they forgot to empty their gauges from the previous event. Some people who aren't weather enthusiasts forget things like that on occasion.

 

It's hot and humid now and feeling more like mid summer!

[OKwx2k4]

I just saw THE most incredible footage I've ever seen a storm chaser provide inside a CAT 5 Hurricane, "Dorian". This video not only shows the immense power of one of the earth's strongest known cyclones, but also shows the sadness of the devastating destruction that is incomprehensible. My mind is blown after watching this storm chaser inside the eye wall. At the 12 min mark, the eye wall is approaching as the highest winds and whiteout conditions inundate their storm shelter. My goodness, that was one wicked storm. Holy smokes.

 

Wow. What can you even really say? Terrible. There's not really any words to describe it. F-4 tornado maybe. Saddening and yet so mighty.

[CentralNebWeather]

Just hit 90 again. Dew at 66 so rather humid again. The beat goes on around here. Maybe changes next week to more normal conditions

[Andie]

I just saw THE most incredible footage I've ever seen a storm chaser provide inside a CAT 5 Hurricane, "Dorian". This video not only shows the immense power of one of the earth's strongest known cyclones, but also shows the sadness of the devastating destruction that is incomprehensible. My mind is blown after watching this storm chaser inside the eye wall. At the 12 min mark, the eye wall is approaching as the highest winds and whiteout conditions inundate their storm shelter. My goodness, that was one wicked storm. Holy smokes.

 

That's exactly why I was so worried about that second one that threatened the Bahamas.

Not only have the islands been scoured, but land mass was lost. When it is rebuilt, it won't be the same.

 

My former business partner spent a lot of time there sailing. I'm sure he's devastated.

Paradise was lost

 

Edit: TS Humberto gave the Bahamas 60 mph winds and lashed them with rain.

This slowed rescue work.