September 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Stormy]

DMX a bit humorous regarding the models for next week:

Beyond Sunday night, models are clueless ranging from a weak

ridge with shortwaves riding across Iowa with varying intensities to

another deep low dropping out of Canada. Just left the model blends

in for that period since there is no consensus whatsoever.

At least they are stating it as it is... models are pretty clueless at times. lol

[Stacsh]

At least they are stating it as it is... models are pretty clueless at times. lol

GFS is clueless in the long term.  Has been for a long time. 

[Stormy]

Oh for sure! 11-12 was going to be the Mother of all wicked winters! After (4) above avg snowy winters in a row (a Chicagoland first), we should've known how that'd work out. And honestly, just based on that fact alone (stretching our luck too far) I really felt uneasy with all the hype. Same thing way back with 82-83. After the brutal prior winter, they called for an even more severe winter. I called that the "hind-casting" era. Thinking that what happened before was some kind of trend or something. 

 

As for winters being forecast warm-n-dry, as Okwx says, I think 15-16 Super-Nino was the last one expected to be such. That was a FAIL as it went on to be a fairly snowy and at times cold season. But, not to be denied, the following winter that was supposed to be a healthy flip to Nina ended up acting like the Nino we didn't get. Gotta keep us guessing I guess..

Yep, nobody knows what next winter will be like. Just because a semi permanent hp ridge or other features such as warm or cold ocean water are forecast to be in certain regions doesn't say how the weather will be like in a month or more because those weather altering features can and do move or change. But us as humans like to know what's in the future so it's interesting to see what it might hold and what's ahead!

[Stormy]

It just became tropical depression 11. Forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm with winds of 40mph. Looks to be a big rain maker in southeast Texas.

 

The NWS said some of that moisture will or could be drawn north into the Midwest increasing heavy rain potential this weekend.

 

Today isn't as warm as the previous two days, but it's still very muggy. Last I checked it was 80°/71° here.

[OKwx2k4]

It just became tropical depression 11. Forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm with winds of 40mph. Looks to be a big rain maker in southeast Texas.

Wow. That kinda escalated a bit. Yesterday or day before it wasn't forecast to become even a tropical depression. Has a nice, tight little circulation spinning there over TX right now.

[OKwx2k4]

September in a nutshell....

Shows no signs of stopping.

After a rain delay of 2 days, summer rolls on...

I live in the wrong place.

[Minny_Weather]

This endless Summer is getting irritating to say the least. Not even one day with lows in the 40s on the GFS. We had cooler temps in July here than we have on any model in the next 10 days. Bleh. 75.2*F.

[Northland09]

Since we've had our False Fall and now we are in our Second Summer, the bees have been relentless because they know Actual Fall will be coming here soon.  It's tough doing anything outside without really having to watch your back because of them! Reached 91 degrees today at our place.  I know we've been spoiled with the cool weather lately, but because of it, my body can't take this heat anymore!  I can't wait until this streak is done and hopefully it will stay away after this until next year...

[Andie]

It's looking like TS Imelda will bring south Texas 5-10" of rain. While east of Dallas will get 3-4' or so. 

The DFW area still see's .50-1" 

Temps will be in the high 80's Thurs - Sat, the several days in the low 90's and another chance of rain in a week and high 80's.

 

So, the weather has turned and we will be on our way to Fall.  That's how it works down here. 

One good TS or Hurricane in September and we're on the downhill slide.

[Niko]

Such a beautiful evening outside. Crystal clear skies and calm winds. Temps are at 63F. Splendid!!!!

[OmahaSnowFan]

Still 80 degrees at nearly midnight here with a warm south breeze. Feels more like July than September

[Jaycee]

Im so ready for it to be 60s for highs and dipping into the 40s at night. October is probably my favorite month, so I hope things cool off soon. CPC keeps it warm for the next few weeks though, so blehh. Feel bad for you all in Nebraska though lol omg, can’t even imagine how much that sucks right now

[Tom]

This is pretty incredible to see the LRC still cycling back to a similar pattern we saw way back in mid October!  When I saw the models start forecasting a cut-off trough spinning in the 4 corners region for a few days in a row between Sept 23rd-27th, I told myself, "wait a minute, I've seen this before."  After looking back at my notes from Oct 15th-19th, wouldn't ya know it, there was a cut-off trough spinning in the 4 corners that spun around for 4 days.  I believe Gary dubbed it "the trough that never left". 

 

In any case, the old LRC is mixing in with the new pattern ever so slightly towards the end of the month and boy is it going to produce a very wet pattern across the Central CONUS to close out Sept.  Early season cold is going to creep into the northern tier of our Sub and very warm air coming up from the south will likely clash and create a very active pattern/SW Flow.  The models are even picking up on the same storm system that targeted the Baja region back on Oct 12th-14th and its due between Sept 23rd-25th near the Baja.

 

00z GFS is showing it right on schedule!  Pretty fascinating...

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

Using the EAR, we are going to see a large scale storm coming out of the Rockies between Sept 27th-29th and cutting NW.  I could see this one bringing heavy early season mountain snows and quite a storm for the northern tier to close out Sept.  All the models are locked on a Typhoon tracking from the S/N near Japan between Sept 21st-23rd.  

[Clinton]

This is pretty incredible to see the LRC still cycling back to a similar pattern we saw way back in mid October!  When I saw the models start forecasting a cut-off trough spinning in the 4 corners region for a few days in a row between Sept 23rd-27th, I told myself, "wait a minute, I've seen this before."  After looking back at my notes from Oct 15th-19th, wouldn't ya know it, there was a cut-off trough spinning in the 4 corners that spun around for 4 days.  I believe Gary dubbed it "the trough that never left". 

 

In any case, the old LRC is mixing in with the new pattern ever so slightly towards the end of the month and boy is it going to produce a very wet pattern across the Central CONUS to close out Sept.  Early season cold is going to creep into the northern tier of our Sub and very warm air coming up from the south will likely clash and create a very active pattern/SW Flow.  The models are even picking up on the same storm system that targeted the Baja region back on Oct 12th-14th and its due between Sept 23rd-25th near the Baja.

 

00z GFS is showing it right on schedule!  Pretty fascinating...

 

 

 

In every cycle this part of the pattern has produced at least 3-7 inches of rain for me.  I would expect another 5in over the next 7 days in what has been one of the wettest years on record for western MO.

[OKwx2k4]

Ridge in the south or southeastern US for the foreseeable future. This september should finish as one the 10 warmest here.

 

Flatly disappointed in this neverending summer. On the other hand, as I've called it earlier in the summer, for vegetable growers and other folks, it's been a year of plenty.

 

Seeing last years weather pattern pop up in the extended range really is just about like a slap in the face, honestly. It's been the most frustrating 4-5 weather years of my life. Talk about learning patience. Geez.

[westMJim]

The official H/L at GRR yesterday was 70/58. That high was cooler then areas near the lake shore but in line to areas to the east of GR. Ionia reported a high of just 65. Hillsdale reported a high of 69. Lansing had a high between reporting hours of 74 (just) 73 during a reporting hour. Mt Pleasant reported a high of 72. And here at my house the high was 73. But at the lake shore reports of highs in the upper 70’s and some 80’s were reported that may have been helped by down slopping. For today September 18^th the average H/L at Grand Rapids is 72/52 the record high was 94 way back in 1906 the record low was 35 set in 1973. The warmest minimum was 69 set in 1942 the record coldest maximum was 55 in 1901. Last year the H/L was 83/64

[St Paul Storm]

Since we've had our False Fall and now we are in our Second Summer, the bees have been relentless because they know Actual Fall will be coming here soon.  It's tough doing anything outside without really having to watch your back because of them! Reached 91 degrees today at our place.  I know we've been spoiled with the cool weather lately, but because of it, my body can't take this heat anymore!  I can't wait until this streak is done and hopefully it will stay away after this until next year...

I agree on the bees. They are absolutely relentless right now. This has been the worst period for bees and wasps that I can remember. I’ve encountered a few ground nests in my yard, and my neighbor stepped into a hornets nest a few weeks ago in her yard. 31 stings. She was rushed to the ER with her vitals going up and down. On the positive side, my raspberry bushes have never been fuller because of the nice pollination taking place.

[St Paul Storm]

Picked up about 0.3” of rain this morning. Nothing severe but there were some nice cloud to cloud bolts flashing during the drive into work.

[Niko]

Sunny skies (not a cloud to be seen) n temps are at 65F. Absolutely gorgeous day outside. This whole week will be spectacular.

[Andie]

[james1976]

Ridge in the south or southeastern US for the foreseeable future. This september should finish as one the 10 warmest here.

 

Flatly disappointed in this neverending summer. On the other hand, as I've called it earlier in the summer, for vegetable growers and other folks, it's been a year of plenty.

 

Seeing last years weather pattern pop up in the extended range really is just about like a slap in the face, honestly. It's been the most frustrating 4-5 weather years of my life. Talk about learning patience. Geez.

You should move north (if life allows you to that is)

[Niko]

Hurricane Humberto now a CAT3 (120mph). As for Bermuda, Hurricane Warning has been posted.

 

TS Jerry is expected to become a Hurricane in the coming days. Jerry is likely to move near or north of the northern Leeward Islands. The Bahamians are probably not happy w Jerry.

[Niko]

The cooldown that was expected early next week is gone. The 60s have been replaced by 70s all of next week. There are also chances of storms as well. I could use some severe weather, even in early October, b4 the cold air really locks in and ends the severe weather season until next Spring.

[OKwx2k4]

You should move north (if life allows you to that is)

If I move anywhere, it'll be N. Michigan or eastern Tennessee/Western N.C.

 

If the Good Lord allows, I will one day.

[Iowawx]

I wonder if there is any chance that the line of storms in Central Iowa could move into Eastern Iowa later today. HRRR doesn't show it moving here, but HRRR did not see the storm complex that moved across Iowa back on Saturday that caused the delays of the cy-hawk game in Ames. 

[james1976]

I wonder if there is any chance that the line of storms in Central Iowa could move into Eastern Iowa later today. HRRR doesn't show it moving here, but HRRR did not see the storm complex that moved across Iowa back on Saturday that caused the delays of the cy-hawk game in Ames.

Raining good here with quite a bit of thunder and occasional lightning. Southern part of the line fell apart but it's back building a bit west of here. Maybe it will last a bit.

[Iowawx]

The line is still holding together. I sure hope it makes it to Cedar Rapids. 

[East Dubzz]

That's got some southern movement to it, right? Kind of hoping it doesn't make it over here, because I have some grass to cut.

[james1976]

DMX said storm motion may only be 5mph tonight. They are concerned about heavy rain potential and the Saturday setup is looking more interesting. I'm glad to finally have some active weather. No cooldown in sight though. Looks like 70s and 80s through next week.

[Stormy]

For some reason that storm is severe warned. Outflow was down to I-80 in central Iowa.

[Hawkeye]

DVN had been down today, but it just started back up... just in time for the storms.

[Stormy]

If I move anywhere, it'll be N. Michigan or eastern Tennessee/Western N.C.

If the Good Lord allows, I will one day.

The winters will probably be still milder if you move east where you mentioned, unless it's up in the hills of the Smoky Mts. Or maybe those mountains aren't in that area? Kind of thought they were.

[East Dubzz]

It's definitely going to rain just enough to where I can't cut the grass, isn't it? 

[Stormy]

Other small cells popping up further southwest too. Wasn't expecting any storms this soon. I like this warm weather if it causes storms.

[Iowawx]

Total bust by the HRRR. It had no thunderstorms in Eastern Iowa today. Line is getting really close to the Cedar Rapids area. 

[Stormy]

Urbana spotter report of nearly 1" of rainfall.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Flood watch issued for tonight into early tomorrow afternoon here. Could be a noisy night!

[Hawkeye]

That little cell dropped 0.33" here.  Up to 0.90" fell in Marion.

[Stormy]

Outflow got here around 5:00pm. Feels good. Two severe warned cells to my west and southwest.

Edit: Actually those storms really weakened already.

 

WPC 7 day QPF has a lollipop over or near Kansas City. Rainfall looks to be almost as heavy in Mo. as in east Tx!