September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TacomaWaWx]

[TT-SEA]

Mix of clouds at different levels today... but lots of sun as well.

 

[Phil]

From the historically cold Dec 2012 to the historically long summer 2019, he just hasn't missed.

Blah Blah Blah. For every Phil bust, there are at least three Flatiron busts. Just face it, you’ll always be living in my shadow.

 

Sucks to suck, but get over it already.

[Timmy Supercell]

Blah Blah Blah. For every Phil bust, there are at least three Flatiron busts. Just face it, you’ll always be living in my shadow.

 

Sucks to suck, but get over it already.

 

       

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I usually refer to this page when looking at past snowfall events. Dec 2008 is simply "M" or missing.

 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/eugclimate/pg83.pdf

The number for 16-17 is wrong too. There was a 5-7” snowstorm on Jan 7.

[Dave]

The number for 16-17 is wrong too. There was a 5-7” snowstorm on Jan 7.

Someone needs to be kicked in the balls.

[Requiem]

18Z looks wonderful for some chilly weather later on. Good sign for winter? Maybe! I hope so!

[Blizzard777]

Hi:70@4:14

Lo:49@5:22

Currently 67*

 

Looks like the green echos are coming down from the NW

Could be a little light rain later on

[Front Ranger]

Blah Blah Blah. For every Phil bust, there are at least three Flatiron busts. Just face it, you’ll always be living in my shadow.

 

Sucks to suck, but get over it already.

Phubris.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

CD762959-658A-49E3-9D3C-C2D78B95A0EC.jpeg

That was the best winter month ever! 41.4" of snow along with all the ice and a -14.4 departure is just insane. I would just be happy with half that.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Mix of clouds at different levels today... but lots of sun as well.

 

 

Light rain here this afternoon, want your weather back yet?

[Deweydog]

POLAR VORTEX.

[Anti Marine Layer]

POLAR VORTEX.

Seems a bit early for that.

[Deweydog]

Seems a bit early for that.

Hey, it’s 5 o’clock somewhere...

[MossMan]

Looks like it’s raining at home again...glad to be in Chelan.

[Omegaraptor]

 

18z snow map to D10. Pretty impressive for south-central OR and NE CA for this time of year.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

F94CD1EF-075C-4B61-824E-8547780F5191.png

 

18z snow map to D10. Pretty impressive for south-central OR and NE CA for this time of year.

Aren’t early fall snows in central and southern Oregon and early cold snaps typically a bad omen? Like 02-03 and 14-15?

[TacomaWaWx]

Aren’t early fall snows in central and southern Oregon and early cold snaps typically a bad omen? Like 02-03 and 14-15?

Earliest Measurable Snowfall I have ever recorded Was November 3rd 2017. 1/2” fell and another 1/2” on the 5th. That was proceeded by a white Christmas with 2” of snow and another 3” of snow in late February. Early snow happened in November 2014 but it’s not always a bad sign.

[TacomaWaWx]

Have had some sprinkles in Tacoma but no accumulating rainfall. Today was a 68/48 day and it’s currently 61.

[Jesse]

Aren’t early fall snows in central and southern Oregon and early cold snaps typically a bad omen? Like 02-03 and 14-15?

I wouldn't say that. Neither of those years had cold anywhere near this time frame. It was more toward the end of October or the first half of November for both, which can indeed be a kiss of death during El Nino years like those were (but this isn't anyway, so kind of a moot point either way).

[Anti Marine Layer]

Climate change is a bad omen, especially if you believe AOC.

[stuffradio]

That was a pretty chilly run

[Timmy Supercell]

Aren’t early fall snows in central and southern Oregon and early cold snaps typically a bad omen? Like 02-03 and 14-15?

 

2014 wasn't all that early for me. 11/12/2014 was my first that season and I think it was only 1/10" to 1/4". November still ended below normal snowfall that year for me.

 

I don't believe early snows are a bad thing, an overall Fall pattern likely has more of a correlation to this than a location's first snow. 

[Jesse]

64 degree with light rain starting now.

 

Hit a high of 70 today after a low of 52.

[Requiem]

00Z GFS is real chilly around the 25th-30th range. Moderates a bit at hour 300, but the synoptic details that far out are as clear as muddy water.

[Jesse]

00Z GFS is real chilly around the 25th-30th range. Moderates a bit at hour 300, but the synoptic details that far out are as clear as muddy water.

 

Would produce some widespread lows in the 30s for the west side at face value. Good stuff for this early.

[Requiem]

Would produce some widespread lows in the 30s for the west side at face value. Good stuff for this early.

 

I'm not gonna say it bears any value for later (that I have no clue), but I'm liking the fact that we're seeing some significant cold anomalies possible this early.

[Jesse]

I'm not gonna say it bears any value for later (that I have no clue), but I'm liking the fact that we're seeing some significant cold anomalies possible this early.

 

Maybe our cold season pattern is going to pick up right where February and March left off!

 

Not likely, but it's fun to dream. The overall pattern definitely looks similar to what we saw those months.

[Kayla]

[MossMan]

Let’s do some ice skating on Chelan this winter!

[Jesse]

24-36” out here by Oct 2nd. Likely model noise but still...

 

I still remember the historic looking mid-August cold snap that had this place buzzing for a few days there. Unlike heatwaves, which almost always verify once they make it into the short to mid range, I would still view this one with skepticism for now.

[Omegaraptor]

So I guess we're just skipping 40s and going straight to 30s. The cold anomalies also look much more focused towards the north on this run (away from NorCal and up into Eastern WA).

 

Wonder if this is just a temporary blip, or if this will continue and we'll see the first regionally cold fall in 12 years... only time will tell!

[Jesse]

So I guess we're just skipping 40s and going straight to 30s. The cold anomalies also look much more focused towards the north on this run (away from the Lake/Modoc/Lassen hinterlands and up into Eastern WA where the population is much higher).

 

Wonder if this is just a temporary blip, or if this will continue and we'll see the first regionally cold fall in 12 years... only time will tell!

Very unlikely the two major regional westside stations (PDX and SEA) fall below 40.

 

A good bet for HIO though, assuming the models don’t change much. But of course, they’ve already seen a few lows in the 40s this season so far.

[Kayla]

I still remember the historic looking mid-August cold snap that had this place buzzing for a few days there. Unlike heatwaves, which almost always verify once they make it into the short to mid range, I would still view this one with skepticism for now.

Agreed. Though it does look eerily similar to February. Would be quite the year if that pattern continued to verify into December.

[MikeInEverett]

Sun isn't out at the moment.

[TacomaWaWx]

Light rain currently and 59 degrees. Only 0.01” of rain, pretty light stuff.

[BLI snowman]

I wouldn't say that. Neither of those years had cold anywhere near this time frame. It was more toward the end of October or the first half of November for both, which can indeed be a kiss of death during El Nino years like those were (but this isn't anyway, so kind of a moot point either way).

 

Many good years (with some top tier cold airmasses) have had impressive cold in that timeframe. 1898, 1908, 1919, 1926, 1934, 1948, 1950, 1971, 1972, and 1985 among others.

 

Not always good though, years like 1933, 1957, and 2000 had some historic cold in the late September-early October range as well.

 

Certainly would rather see cold now than persistent warmth, IMO. Much better sign to see a significant cold spell, since early fall blocking patterns quite often tend to repeat to some extent later in the season and into early winter.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Raining

[GHweatherChris]

My call for a 2019-2020 type winter is looking better and better now.

[Deweydog]

Euro is running$