September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yea. We usually burn close to 2 cords. Had to buy a lot of that this year but at 250-300 bucks a cord it’s a bit expensive. Going to get an extra cord just in case we have a cold one and my wife is home on maternity leave this winter so the fire will probably be going more steady.

 

We use a wood burning insert in our fireplace, which has a blower. Heats the whole house pretty well, especially since I have now replaced all the windows too. We went through a tremendous amount of wood last February. Back in 2016-17 our daughter hadn't been born yet, so my wife worked days as do I. Now we both work opposite schedules so we do not have to use childcare, but it means someone is always home running the stove. Last I checked Oak and maple were running about 225-250 a cord here and fir 175-225. My in laws recently retired and spend a lot of time doing home improvement projects now for their kids, they took down 4-5 trees on my sister in laws property, which is where all our wood came from. 

[ShawniganLake]

YVR is breathing some rarified air in terms over consecutive rainy days in September

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Those are gone now, took them out when I had the excavator earlier this year.

 

Good thing about living at 1600' is that it is the Himalayans do not grow well up here. There are a few patches here and there, but they are pretty easy to control. 

[MossMan]

Up to .30” on the day.

57 degrees.

[TacomaWaWx]

Jet suppression. Prince Rupert has only had 5.5” in September and they average 10.5”+

Some spots in OR and WA have higher rain totals than 5.5” as well.

[Jesse]

YVR is breathing some rarified air in terms over consecutive rainy days in September

 

E5A7FC1E-07DF-4B81-99F0-155AF403F81A.png

 

Interesting to see 1985 on the top there. The upcoming pattern has some similarities too, but about a week earlier.

 

Of course all that fall voodoo ended up meaning nothing and it torched from mid-October onward that year.

[TT-SEA]

Good thing about living at 1600' is that it is the Himalayans do not grow well up here. There are a few patches here and there, but they are pretty easy to control.

They grow insanely well here... constant battle.

[Front Ranger]

Summer has been over for 22 days.

Ironic.

[Front Ranger]

YVR is breathing some rarified air in terms over consecutive rainy days in September

 

E5A7FC1E-07DF-4B81-99F0-155AF403F81A.png

A lot of winters followed those years!

[MossMan]

Good thing about living at 1600' is that it is the Himalayans do not grow well up here. There are a few patches here and there, but they are pretty easy to control.

Even here it’s not too bad to keep them under control...what I do is take them out or mow them down with a brush hog, then start mowing the area regularly and they don’t come back. The area pictured with my daughter playing in the mud is now all grass. The previous owners just quit maintaining the property over the last 5 or so years. I have made a lot of headway but still lots to do.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

They grow insanely well here... constant battle.

 

I think our growing season is much shorter here than your area. You get more snow than me because of the c-zone and offshore flow over the pass, but overall I think our lows are much colder. 

[TT-SEA]

Ironic.

You just cannot accept that I gave Phil a 2-week cushion!

 

But not just because of the September rain. There was much more frequent rain here from mid-June through the end of August (more days with rain than normal). Grass stayed green all summer in my area for the first time in our 15 years here. My feelings about his forecast are also based on my personal experience. I give Phil credit... you don't have to if you don't want.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Of course we have Scotch Broom here...

[Front Ranger]

You just cannot accept that I gave Phil a 2-week cushion!

 

But not just because of the September rain. There was much more frequent rain here from mid-June through the end of August (more days with rain than normal). Grass stayed green all summer in my area for the first time in our 15 years here. My feelings about his forecast are also based on my personal experience. I give Phil credit... you don't have to if you don't want.

Once it was fall, it turned wetter than normal. Summer was not...just wetter than recent summers.

 

Pretty simple and backed by objective fact.

[TT-SEA]

Once it was fall, it turned wetter than normal. Summer was not...just wetter than recent summers.

 

Pretty simple and backed by objective fact.

 

Not disputing your regional analysis.   

 

But July and August were wetter than normal in the Seattle area and out here.   

 

It normally rains on 13 days total in the Snoqualmie Valley in July and August combined.   This year... it rained on 24 days in July and August. The rain was much more frequent than normal up here in July and August.   And it felt like it was raining more often than normal... because it was.     We never had to water at all the entire summer for the first time in 15 years.

 

So I am giving Phil credit based on my experience.   You don't have to... that is fine.   

 

It certainly seemed like there was a "much better moisture transport" this summer as he predicted.

[TT-SEA]

Of course we have Scotch Broom here...

 

Lots of that around here as well.   

 

I-90 from Issaquah to North Bend is a sea of bright yellow in May.  

[Timmy Supercell]

Once it was fall, it turned wetter than normal. Summer was not...just wetter than recent summers.

 

Pretty simple and backed by objective fact.

 

Even if some locations in J/J/A period had relatively normal precip, actual number of rainfall events were frequent, more so than a typical summer. The summers of 2010 or 2011 which both featured cool seasons, those didn't really have all that many rains at least not in Oregon. 

 

I do also recall the summers from when I was younger (2000-2008 period). The ones that weren't hot summers usually would only feature maybe a couple stratiform rains, and it wouldn't be distributed through a period of 2 months like it was in summer 2019.

[TT-SEA]

Even if some locations in J/J/A period had relatively normal precip, actual number of rainfall events were frequent, more so than a typical summer. The summers of 2010 or 2011 which both featured cool seasons, those didn't really have all that many rains at least not in Oregon. 

 

 

Exactly.

 

The actual experience felt much wetter than 2010 and 2011... because the rain was so much more frequent.

[Front Ranger]

Even if some locations in J/J/A period had relatively normal precip, actual number of rainfall events were frequent, more so than a typical summer. The summers of 2010 or 2011 which both featured cool seasons, those didn't really have all that many rains at least not in Oregon.

 

Nah, not most places. In Portland, Olympia, Seattle, etc most the rain in July and August fell on a handful of days. Which is quite normal historically.

[ShawniganLake]

A lot of winters followed those years!

Not a terrible list but a couple stinkers.

[Phil]

Yeah, I was curious how they got to that size in the first place if they are in a location that constantly pools water. Trees don’t like growing in ponds.

Yeah, unless water just recently started pooling there, that probably wasn’t the cause of death.

 

Based on some of his other pictures, it looks like they might have died from the top down, which would be indicative of reduced/obstructed water transport through the vascular tissue.

[TT-SEA]

Nah, not most places. In Portland, Olympia, Seattle, etc most the rain in July and August fell on a handful of days. Which is quite normal historically.

 

SEA normally has 11 days with rain in July and August... this year they had 15.

 

And again... Snoqualmie Valley normally has 13 days and this year there was 24.  

 

So it was actually more frequently wet in this area than normal for this area.   And that is why I am giving Phil credit for a good call.     There was a "much better moisture transport".  

[TacomaWaWx]

Exactly.

 

The actual experience felt much wetter than 2010 and 2011... because the rain was so much more frequent.

We had rain events on 7/2, 7/10, 7/17, 8/2, 8/10, 8/21 and 8/29. They were very well spread out, with one 16 day dry streak from 7/17-8/2. Other than that we never went more than 8 days from July to August.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, unless water just recently started pooling there, that probably wasn’t the cause of death.

 

Based on some of his other pictures, it looks like they might have died from the top down, which would be indicative of reduced/obstructed water transport through the vascular tissue.

 

 

That's what she said.

[Deweydog]

Prayers for the Euro.

[MossMan]

Yeah, unless water just recently started pooling there, that probably wasn’t the cause of death.

 

Based on some of his other pictures, it looks like they might have died from the top down, which would be indicative of reduced/obstructed water transport through the vascular tissue.

Nope. All my trees are dead, they died since it has not rained here in 10yrs. A wasteland of death and destruction.

 

Currently moderate rain and 57. .35” on the day, 3.88” on the month.

[Timmy Supercell]

SEA normally has 11 days with rain in July and August... this year they had 15.

 

And again... Snoqualmie Valley normally has 13 days and this year there was 24.  

 

So it was actually more frequently wet in this area than normal for this area.   And that is why I am giving Phil credit for a good call.     There was a "much better moisture transport".  

 

My number of non-convective rains in Klamath are very few occurrences in the warmest times of the year. If you include the time period from May up through September I think I've had more non-convective rainfall than rain from t'storms here which is something I don't think this area has experienced in a long time. If there was a stat of some sort on this to reference, it was probably the 1980's decade that last did this in Klamath Falls.

[GHweatherChris]

Moist

[Front Ranger]

SEA normally has 11 days with rain in July and August... this year they had 15.

 

And again... Snoqualmie Valley normally has 13 days and this year there was 24.

 

Most places, most the rain fell on a handful of days. And again, that's disregarding what was a very dry June for much of the area...that's one third of the summer.

 

Overall, a very average summer in the precip department historically. That's what the stats say.

[Front Ranger]

We had rain events on 7/2, 7/10, 7/17, 8/2, 8/10, 8/21 and 8/29. They were very well spread out, with one 16 day dry streak from 7/17-8/2. Other than that we never went more than 8 days from July to August.

Yep. Then add in June and you're looking at a very normal summer on average. A little drier than average overall most places.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I think it was a little below normal precip and above normal temps here since Jun but was mostly normal.  Sure hasn't seemed overly wet until Sept. The region exists outside of the foothills to the east of, and PSCZ areas north of Seattle.

[ShawniganLake]

A little better than 1/4” of rain here this morning

[TT-SEA]

Most places, most the rain fell on a handful of days. And again, that's disregarding what was a very dry June for much of the area...that's one third of the summer.

 

Overall, a very average summer in the precip department historically. That's what the stats say.

 

 

Sometime stats don't tell the whole story.    

 

And the pattern turned wet around June 18th... and the rain was more frequent than normal for the rest of the summer after that point.     

 

Here are the stats from the Snoqualmie Valley... rain was more frequent than normal and swtich was flipped on June 18th.   That is why I am giving Phil a 2-week cushion.     You can do whatever you want.     It certainly felt like Phil made a good forecast... in the spirit of long-range forecasting.

 

[El_Nina]

0.18" so far today.

[Jesse]

Prayers for the Euro.

The rent in your brain is too high.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like we are 59F with steady rain.

[GHweatherChris]

Stats are stats. This summer was less moist than normal, even with a "better" moisture van.

[Jesse]

Euro looks good so far. Not quite as far east as the GFS.

[TT-SEA]

Stats are stats. This summer was less moist than normal, even with a "better" moisture van.

 

 

Technically true for JJA.

 

But from June 18th - August 31st... it rained more frequently than normal in many areas of the PNW.    That is the majority of the summer.    And yet it was also warmer than normal... thanks to the high humidity.   

 

In the spirit of long range forecasting and based on my experience personally... Phil did a good job and provided a good guide to this summer.   Its not the same as a forecast contest.  

[Timmy Supercell]

Stats are stats. This summer was less moist than normal, even with a "better" moisture van.

 

There was almost no monsoonal flow to speak of this summer in southern OR. Next year is probably going to overdose on wet t'storms here.