October 2019 Observations and Discussion

[OKwx2k4]

I've been thinking of you and Andie about this and how its coming together. I can only imagine what it's going to look like in the next 2-4 LRC cycles, esp during the heart of Winter. I mean, this trough penetrates all the way down into the GOM in the middle of October! I bet in future cycles N MX will see snow during the Winter. Something really crazy will happen this cold season. Just got the feeling.

I do too man.

All the great cold fronts have "leader" fronts that presage them by 5-7 days. The 1st such front in my "progression" I hinted at arrives over the Ozarks region Monday. 5 days later, on Friday, we get the whole show.

 

The first clues to this actually started with (in my opinion) 2 summer cold fronts. One being the anomalous front in mid-July and the other in late August. I noted these as harbingers. Then, as I walked the remainder of the pattern back out, I noticed all of the hallmarks of a pretty radical pattern shift that I've observed before and one that is well documented 3x in history. Those 3 years are, 1911, 1978, and 2000.

A few days later, after writing that, the models flipped like a switch and here we go.

 

When we see this Aleutian vortex develop in weeks 2-3, the stage will be completely set. I'm as stoked as I've been in my life today, in terms of winter enthusiasm.

 

It's crazy to think that we are also going straight from warm "blandtember" and "warmtober" weather to literal deep mid-autumn weather over the course of 5 days. Just wow.

 

I'm really just thinking back this morning over the last 4 years. It's been probably the most frustrating four years of weather enthusiasm and also some of the most frustrating in my life. It may be a wish cast for the future, but I believe all the signs are present that the "warm era" down here and in many places in the interior US is finally closing after 15 years. So here's to the last October of the stretch, of the 2010's decade, and hopefully the last in an era of warmth. There are great things coming for me and my life, and in the weather. I believe that with all my heart.

 

The table is finally all set for something I've waited many years for.

Let the changes begin....

[Tom]

I do too man.

All the great cold fronts have "leader" fronts that presage them by 5-7 days. The 1st such front in my "progression" I hinted at arrives over the Ozarks region Monday. 5 days later, on Friday, we get the whole show.

 

The first clues to this actually started with (in my opinion) 2 summer cold fronts. One being the anomalous front in mid-July and the other in late August. I noted these as harbingers. Then, as I walked the remainder of the pattern back out, I noticed all of the hallmarks of a pretty radical pattern shift that I've observed before and one that is well documented 3x in history. Those 3 years are, 1911, 1978, and 2000.

A few days later, after writing that, the models flipped like a switch and here we go.

 

When we see this Aleutian vortex develop in weeks 2-3, the stage will be completely set. I'm as stoked as I've been in my life today, in terms of winter enthusiasm.

 

It's crazy to think that we are also going straight from warm "blandtember" and "warmtober" weather to literal deep mid-autumn weather over the course of 5 days. Just wow.

 

I'm really just thinking back this morning over the last 4 years. It's been probably the most frustrating four years of weather enthusiasm and also some of the most frustrating in my life. It may be a wish cast for the future, but I believe all the signs are present that the "warm era" down here and in many places in the interior US is finally closing after 15 years. So here's to the last October of the stretch, of the 2010's decade, and hopefully the last in an era of warmth. There are great things coming for me and my life, and in the weather. I believe that with all my heart.

 

The table is finally all set for something I've waited many years for.

Let the changes begin....

I'm thrilled to hear your excitement and for the first time in a long while, like you said, I think this will be the season that "flips the script" down in your region.  In terms of the pattern flip, it really is going to be a shock to the system for many of you guys down in the southern Plains.  Heck, even for those up in MN who may see a big October Snow later next week!  00z Euro is dumping 2-3 feet into parts of N MN and also lays down a good snowfall for MSP/N WI area.  What a beautiful blocking pattern setting up.  It'll be a matter of time till we see your area in the game later in the season.  I'm thinking November will be the month you start seeing that "love" from mother nature.

[Tom]

Yesterday's daytime high of 58F was the 1st BN reading after a stretch of 25 consecutive AN days!  It sure did feel Autumn-like all day long with Lake Effect clouds flowing in off of LM from a strong NE wind.

[OKwx2k4]

I'm thrilled to hear your excitement and for the first time in a long while, like you said, I think this will be the season that "flips the script" down in your region. In terms of the pattern flip, it really is going to be a shock to the system for many of you guys down in the southern Plains. Heck, even for those up in MN who may see a big October Snow later next week! 00z Euro is dumping 2-3 feet into parts of N MN and also lays down a good snowfall for MSP/N WI area. What a beautiful blocking pattern setting up. It'll be a matter of time till we see your area in the game later in the season. I'm thinking November will be the month you start seeing that "love" from mother nature.

Man, if I could call it for Thanksgiving Thursday, it would be an instant classic. I've said more than a few times here that I'd give anything for a white Thanksgiving. I just think it would be too cool.

[Minny_Weather]

Awesome.....Yup, Saginaw is a coldspot.

 

Its probably about 3 hour drive or so right, maybe 4.

Just a bit over 2 hours, basically exactly 2 with how I drive

[Clinton]

Alright, alright, alright...it's finally that time of year where I begin taking notes of this new LRC pattern and how all of this is unfolding.  It's an exciting time of year for me trying to study and figure out this wx pattern and share it with you all.  Who's ready for tracking storms???  I think many of you who have gardens and that have farms will be in a frenzy this week trying to harvest what crop you have remaining.  Looks like the growing season will be coming to an end by next weekend.  As short as it was due to late planting, did the warm Sept help out?

I am doing the same thing as far as the LRC is concerned.  Tom, should the GFS verify  wouldn't the pattern around the 20th be conducive for a major artic outbreak in future cycles?

[Hawkeye]

What I don't like about next Friday/Saturday is the wind will make it difficult to protect my garden.

[westMJim]

The H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 58/43. The low at Grand Rapids this morning looks to be 41, The low here at my house was 40. At this time with clear skies the temperature here is now at 42°.  For today the average H/L is 65/45. The record high is 85 set in 1946 and the record low is 29 set in 2004. The warmest minimum is 65 in 2013 and the coldest maximum is 45 set in 1935. Last year the H/L was 58/43.

[Hawkeye]

The path just west and north of Cedar Rapids sure has been the hot zone recently.  Another batch of heavy rain is about to track through that area.  It should mostly miss CR.

[CentralNebWeather]

Alright, alright, alright...it's finally that time of year where I begin taking notes of this new LRC pattern and how all of this is unfolding.  It's an exciting time of year for me trying to study and figure out this wx pattern and share it with you all.  Who's ready for tracking storms???  I think many of you who have gardens and that have farms will be in a frenzy this week trying to harvest what crop you have remaining.  Looks like the growing season will be coming to an end by next weekend.  As short as it was due to late planting, did the warm Sept help out?

Yes it did.  Harvest moving along well in this area.  Corn crop still behind averages, but headway was made lately.  Of course it has been wet around here the last couple of days so that will delay them again.

[St Paul Storm]

What I don't like about next Friday/Saturday is the wind will make it difficult to protect my garden.

At least you might be able to save yours. It doesn’t appear that I’ll be able to save the remaining plants in mine. Growing season is about to come to an early stop.

[St Paul Storm]

Gonna be fun week of tracking...in early October. Euro has accumulating snow for the entire state. Highly unlikely and not expecting anything here, but pretty cool to track snow this early.

[Tom]

Yes it did. Harvest moving along well in this area. Corn crop still behind averages, but headway was made lately. Of course it has been wet around here the last couple of days so that will delay them again.

Thanks for the update and it’s good to hear that the farmers are able to produce a decent amount of crop this year even though it wasn’t a great year.

[Tom]

I am doing the same thing as far as the LRC is concerned. Tom, should the GFS verify wouldn't the pattern around the 20th be conducive for a major artic outbreak in future cycles?

IMO, the one coming later next week/weekend looks like one that would translate the entire Vortex to drop over the MW/GL’s. I believe there will be many times during this new LRC that will translate into Arctic outbreaks. The models show a very conducive 500mb pattern.

[Clinton]

IMO, the one coming later next week/weekend looks like one that would translate the entire Vortex to drop over the MW/GL’s. I believe there will be many times during this new cycle we will see Arctic outbreaks. The models show a very conducive 500mb pattern.

Thanks for your insight.  I am ready for winter!

[CentralNebWeather]

Thanks for the update and it’s good to hear that the farmers are able to produce a decent amount of crop this year even though it wasn’t a great year.

Most soybeans have been harvested. Reports are very good. Some have said close to record bushels per acre.

[Niko]

Crisp, chilly, sunny morning here in SEMI w temps in the mid 40s. Temps hit the 30s last. Low was 39F. First 30s of the season. More 30s are likely next weekend as even a colder airmass arrives. Today highs will remain at best in the low 50s under partly sunny skies.

[Niko]

Just a bit over 2 hours, basically exactly 2 with how I drive

Impressive   

[Niko]

I know it sounds stupid, but after the last 3 months, I keep waiting for this to disappear. You know what? It just keeps getting stronger! This is going to be awesome.

gfs_T2m_us_27.png

gfs_T2m_us_28.png

gfs_T2ma_us_28.png

 

October "blue norther" of 2019 has a nice ring to it 'eh, my friends?

Happy guy here. This is pure beauty in weather modeling.

WOW

[Niko]

Alright, alright, alright...it's finally that time of year where I begin taking notes of this new LRC pattern and how all of this is unfolding.  It's an exciting time of year for me trying to study and figure out this wx pattern and share it with you all.  Who's ready for tracking storms???  I think many of you who have gardens and that have farms will be in a frenzy this week trying to harvest what crop you have remaining.  Looks like the growing season will be coming to an end by next weekend.  As short as it was due to late planting, did the warm Sept help out?

My garden looks like it has already offered everything it can squeeze out. My tomatoes, green peppers, cucumbers and also sweet tomatoes are still providing, but are becoming lesser and lesser.. My figs are still looking good. Usually by November, they fall apart. I sure did enjoy delicious salads this Summer.

[Tom]

[james1976]

Great stuff guys. Wow I'm excited! I still cant believe how quickly the pattern has changed. Already talking the 'S' word!

[Tom]

It's been a delightful morning and early afternoon here.  Temps in the upper 50's with filtered sunshine obscured by alto cirrus clouds from the approaching line of showers/storms.  I'm seeing more tree's turning color, neighbors decorations are up for Halloween, pumpkins are placed out on the porches/front doors...it's safe to say that it's starting to look and feel like mid-Autumn.  This weekend is definitely starting to put me in the Autumnal "mood", by next weekend, most of us will be in storm tracking mode and wishing the models come in 1 hour earlier...but we'll have to wait till Nov 3rd for that to happen.  Until then, we wait patiently and count down the days...days, that will be numbered for us to see our 1st flakes of snow flying, ice forming on the lakes/rivers and eventually the Holiday Season will be upon us....ahhh, tis the season!!!!

[james1976]

I'm up in St Paul this weekend. Its cloudy, windy and damp up here. Had rain this morning. Definitely more color on the trees and more leaves are falling! They might be seeing their first flakes up here end of next week!

[Bryan1117]

Picked up another 1.25 inches of rain from some pretty loud thunderstorms this morning, the hits keep on coming around here.

 

I hope this pattern continues for the next few months, it will make for a fun and exciting Winter around here (minus the flooding concerns all over again).

[St Paul Storm]

I'm up in St Paul this weekend. Its cloudy, windy and damp up here. Had rain this morning. Definitely more color on the trees and more leaves are falling! They might be seeing their first flakes up here end of next week!

Welcome to town! Definitely a dreary day today. Tomorrow should be a lot nicer. I’m doing a 10 mile canoe ride on the St Croix river tomorrow morning. Should be a very scenic ride with all the colors.

 

We may see flakes late next week but it won’t amount to anything. W and N MN however might be on for a historic October snowstorm. Lake of the Woods area bombed on the GFS and Euro.

[Grizzcoat]

4.87" of precip for the month of OCT (5 days) and 44.19" for the year (good for 9th all time with still nearly 3 months left)--- all for DSM.  4 of the 10 top ten have occurred (since 1881) in the last 10 years.  AGW/Water Vapor ? your idea is as valid as mine.

[Hawkeye]

I picked up 0.82" of rain today.  Locations just nw and se of Cedar Rapids received over to well over an inch.  It feels like it has been raining every other day for a month.  I love heavy rain, but that's quite enough for a while.  I'm ready for a string a pleasant days.  Fortunately, it appears we'll get that.  I'll try to enjoy the garden's final week.

 

Even missing out on the bulls-eye consistently, I've managed to get about 9" of rain over the last four weeks.

[james1976]

Welcome to town! Definitely a dreary day today. Tomorrow should be a lot nicer. I’m doing a 10 mile canoe ride on the St Croix river tomorrow morning. Should be a very scenic ride with all the colors.

 

We may see flakes late next week but it won’t amount to anything. W and N MN however might be on for a historic October snowstorm. Lake of the Woods area bombed on the GFS and Euro.

Thanks! I'm in the Vadnais Heights area. We're actually heading to downtown St Paul right now.

[OKwx2k4]

The edge of the first front has made it here now. Should pass slowly by over the next 8 hours or so and then the first below average air slides and fills in rapidly behind it tomorrow night into Monday morning.

 

Today was a nice calm and partly sunny way to cap off the extended summer here.

 

By Monday morning when the first front passes, the first big cold wave of Autumn will be in the 84 hour range.

 

I'm just pretty stoked about the next 10 days of weather.

[St Paul Storm]

Thanks! I'm in the Vadnais Heights area. We're actually heading to downtown St Paul right now.

I live in Roseville, about 5 mi from there. Enjoy your stay!

[OKwx2k4]

Severe wx popping up out west. Should be interesting. Nice little cells there.

[Niko]

Sounds yummy ...nothing better than your own organic garden.

You bet amigo, you can honestly taste the freshness when eating it from your own garden. Yum Yum!   

[Niko]

Currently at 55F w mostly cloudy skies. Some rain arriving later tanite and ending by morning.

[Niko]

Sometimes Ma Nature can be cruel.......

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/texas-man-struck-lightning-rescued-172658131.html

[Bellona]

Another two inches today. Cars were actually swept off a road. It can seriously stop.

[Andie]

93* today.

 

96* tomorrow

 

78*. Monday. Man, am I ready for Monday!

[Madtown]

Peak in northern WI

[jaster220]

Peak in northern WI

 

Very nice shots!

[Stormy]

I ended up with 0.59" of rain today. Actually wasn't expecting more than about two tenths after seeing the radar this morning, but storms kept developing on the south end and I thought it was interesting watching the radar. The best cells just missed as usual with a narrow band of 1"> totals a few miles to the northwest.