Frontal Snowsquall Posted October 16, 2019 Report Share Posted October 16, 2019 There is something to be said about having the event occur where you are living. I want to experience 140” of snow during a 6 week period. We need another 1915-16 winter for that to happenYeah, that's true. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 16, 2019 Report Share Posted October 16, 2019 Hard to get any kind of read on the IOD's effect on North America. Here are previous +IOD years: 1961, 1963, 1972, 1982, 1983, 1994, 1997, 2006, 2012, 2015, 2018. Those winters were all over the place, in terms of prevailing patterns. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 16, 2019 Report Share Posted October 16, 2019 Red line up high means we are screwed, correct?Lol. Nah, you’re good. But this is a +ENSO regime in the tropics, from an integrated standpoint, and anyone suggesting otherwise is blowing smoke. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 16, 2019 Report Share Posted October 16, 2019 Hard to get any kind of read on the IOD's effect on North America. Here are previous +IOD years: 1961, 1963, 1972, 1982, 1983, 1994, 1997, 2006, 2012, 2015, 2018. Those winters were all over the place, in terms of prevailing patterns.Eh, some of those were very weak and had collapsed by fall/winter (since those are 12 month averages). The IOD influence is magnified when the amplitude is high, especially during/after the fall equinox. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted October 16, 2019 Report Share Posted October 16, 2019 Red line up high means we are screwed, correct?Not necessarily. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 16, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 16, 2019 We're all a bunch of hippies on the rain loving side so what we could really use is a shower. I'm probably one of the few on this forum though that has a legitimate reason to long for showery afternoons. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 26 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 16, 2019 Report Share Posted October 16, 2019 Eh, some of those were very weak and had collapsed by fall/winter (since those are 12 month averages). The IOD influence is magnified when the amplitude is high, especially during/after the fall equinox. So what is the primary IOD influence on the North American pattern, in your opinion? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 16, 2019 Report Share Posted October 16, 2019 Phil getting rain today! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 16, 2019 Report Share Posted October 16, 2019 So what is the primary IOD influence on the North American pattern, in your opinion?There isn’t one..but it does affect the state and evolution of tropical forcing/ENSO (or is a component of it..that whole chicken/egg thing). And that will inevitably affect the pattern. A potent, coupled +IOD teleconnects to subsidence over the Maritime Continent/weakened Walker Cell, which fits some of the canonical +ENSO low pass OLR/VP200 EOFs. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted October 16, 2019 Report Share Posted October 16, 2019 I'm probably one of the few on this forum though that has a legitimate reason to long for showery afternoons. Coincidentally, you also happen to be one of the few members east of the cascade crest! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 16, 2019 Report Share Posted October 16, 2019 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 16, 2019 Report Share Posted October 16, 2019 There isn’t one..but it does affect the state and evolution of tropical forcing/ENSO (or is a component of it..that whole chicken/egg thing). And that will inevitably affect the pattern. A potent, coupled +IOD teleconnects to subsidence over the Maritime Continent/weakened Walker Cell, which fits some of the canonical +ENSO low pass OLR/VP200 EOFs. Sorta weird that +ENSO years like 1965, 1968, 1986, 1991, and 2009 didn't have +IOD then. But I guess you're saying it's just an influence, not a determiner. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 16, 2019 Report Share Posted October 16, 2019 ****. Low pass OLR/VP200 EOFs Not looking good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 16, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 16, 2019 Coincidentally, you also happen to be one of the few members east of the cascade crest! It's why I enjoyed Octobers like 2016. Give me another one of those please. Thank you. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 26 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 16, 2019 Report Share Posted October 16, 2019 Sorta weird that +ENSO years like 1965, 1968, 1986, 1991, and 2009 didn't have +IOD then. But I guess you're saying it's just an influence, not a determiner.Yeah, those were neutral/dormant IODs (often happens). Depends how the ENSO/warm pool structure evolves relative to seasonal climo..and 2019’s long period progression has been screwy since that SSW last Jan/Feb. Almost as if the IOD is aiding/compensating for the Pacific right now, trying to pull it in a more +ENSO direction. But in doing so I could also envision this conduit messing with the climatological IPWP back cycle response to QBO/solar boundary conditions for 2020/21. Ugh..sometimes you have to throw your hands up. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted October 16, 2019 Report Share Posted October 16, 2019 What does the latest euro map show for wind?Salem area October 19th Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 16, 2019 Report Share Posted October 16, 2019 Euro continues to be quite a bit ridgier than GFS in mid range. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakeinthevalley Posted October 16, 2019 Report Share Posted October 16, 2019 925mb winds must be cranking pretty good. Clouds are moving pretty quickly after the passage of the first front. Nothing surfacing yet here in McMinnville. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 16, 2019 Report Share Posted October 16, 2019 Euro continues to be quite a bit ridgier than GFS in mid range.Both have moved toward the idea of delaying the REALLY strong ridging until later next week, though. As well as giving us a few brushes with cool air to the east as it tries to build in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 16, 2019 Report Share Posted October 16, 2019 Euro continues to be quite a bit ridgier than GFS in mid range.Almost inversion season! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted October 16, 2019 Report Share Posted October 16, 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 16, 2019 Report Share Posted October 16, 2019 0.27” of rainfall from this morning. First front exiting into the cascades but the next front is visible on radar and already hitting the north coast. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 16, 2019 Report Share Posted October 16, 2019 Nice day! Other than 15 min of heavy drizzle a few hours ago it had been dry during the daylight hours. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 16, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 16, 2019 Nice day! Other than 15 min of heavy drizzle a few hours ago it had been dry during the daylight hours. Waiting on my first sprinkle. Rain is much appreciated. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 26 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 16, 2019 Report Share Posted October 16, 2019 Yeah pretty wet day. Headed down to Dulles a couple hours ago. Amazing the explosive growth in N. Virginia, even in the last couple years. It's really a pretty nice area IMO. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 16, 2019 Report Share Posted October 16, 2019 Yeah pretty wet day. Headed down to Dulles a couple hours ago. Amazing the explosive growth in N. Virginia, even in the last couple years. It's really a pretty nice area IMO. And the rain is done in DC now... maybe another shot of heavy rain next Tuesday for about 12 hours but otherwise dry. They are efficient with the rain production there. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 16, 2019 Report Share Posted October 16, 2019 Breeeezy. 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 16, 2019 Report Share Posted October 16, 2019 It’s been wet out on the coast the past couple of days. Looks like 3-5” on the west coast of the island. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 16, 2019 Report Share Posted October 16, 2019 Breeeezy.Calm here but has turned extremely wet in the past 1/2hr or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 16, 2019 Report Share Posted October 16, 2019 No rain falling here... and still dead calm. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 16, 2019 Report Share Posted October 16, 2019 No wind or rain here, rain hitting the south Washington coast. probably will take 2 hours or so to make it into the Seattle area. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 16, 2019 Report Share Posted October 16, 2019 Sunny and 86 here. There is a breeze though... 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 16, 2019 Report Share Posted October 16, 2019 Sunny and 86 here. There is a breeze though... Vegas? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 16, 2019 Report Share Posted October 16, 2019 Vegas?Sounds fun. Wanna go? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 16, 2019 Report Share Posted October 16, 2019 Sounds fun. Wanna go?Yes! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 16, 2019 Report Share Posted October 16, 2019 Rainy and 56F. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 16, 2019 Report Share Posted October 16, 2019 Big dark. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 16, 2019 Report Share Posted October 16, 2019 Yes! I'll be there end of the month! 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted October 16, 2019 Report Share Posted October 16, 2019 High so far was just before 6am at 55 degrees and my low was at 9am at 49. 53 degrees currently. Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 16, 2019 Report Share Posted October 16, 2019 Sounds fun. Wanna go?Never been there...Anywhere to jetski? 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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