November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Kayla]

Just a really odd year.    That is not hyperbole.  

 

March was incredibly dry as well.   March and November are not months when you expect long dry streaks.    And February was obviously unprecedented in terms of persistent cold.  

 

Streaky variability. 

[TT-SEA]

So I guess in March it was mostly southern Oregon that had wet. It seemed like a normal month to me, plus the extra snowfall.

 

 

Driest March ever out here in the Snoqualmie Valley.

[jcmcgaffey]

When you compare the 1997-2007 U.S. winter climate to what we've seen the past 12 years, the difference is pretty striking. Night and day for the north central part of the country.

 

97-07.png

 

07-09.png

That is really interesting. I knew there has been a lot of cold in the central us the last decade but just assumed it has been warmer than normal in the nw. It has seemed like there has been a lot of complaining on here about how warm our winters have been lately and how we are due.

[TT-SEA]

Wondering when we will actually see rain. Longest dry streak this year was from 4/21-5/14 23 days. Were at 13 currently, could end up being our longest dry streak of 2019 here in Tacoma.

 

 

Current streak at 13 days there... and here is total precip over the next 10 days per the 00Z GFS.   Very strange.

 

[TacomaWaWx]

I don't usually wonder when we'll see rain. It'll happen. Step away from the refresh button and do other things.

 

Dont see any reason to be a ****. Making a weather related comment on a weather forum, why dont you go somewhere else?

[Jesse]

That is really interesting. I knew there has been a lot of cold in the central us the last decade but just assumed it has been warmer than normal in the nw. It has seemed like there has been a lot of complaining on here about how warm our winters have been lately and how we are due.

 

That hasn't really been the case. I think most people here acknowledge that the last ten or so years have been a lot better than the previous 10-12 in terms of winter cold. Most of the complaining is from people who happen to get left out of snow events (that happens often even in generally cold winters), or about the fact that the other three seasons have been inordinately on the torchy side, especially summer.

 

Of course, even with generally average to coolish winters since ~2007, it's been anywhere from 21 to 29 years (depending on who you ask) since we have seen a legitimate, top tier arctic blast in the dead of winter around here. So we are certainly due for one of those, whatever that entails.

[TacomaWaWx]

Current streak at 13 days there... and here is total precip over the next 10 days per the 00Z GFS.   Very strange.

 

 

Exactly its definitely unusual, another odd streak in a year full of odd streaks of weather.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Light rain in W. Oregon at hour 264!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Exactly its definitely unusual, another odd streak in a year full of odd streaks of weather.

 

It's a little unusual, but as I posted earlier. Dry November's do happen.

[Omegaraptor]

That hasn't really been the case. I think most people here acknowledge that the last ten or so years have been a lot better than the previous 10-12 in terms of winter cold. Most of the complaining is from people who happen to get left out of snow events (that happens often even in generally cold winters), or about the fact that the other three seasons have been inordinately on the torchy side, especially summer.

 

Of course, even with generally average to coolish winters since ~2007, it's been anywhere from 21 to 29 years (depending on who you ask) since we have seen a legitimate, top tier arctic blast in the dead of winter around here.

 

To be fair, spring has been just as torchy as summer in recent years. May especially. 

[Cloud]

Current streak at 13 days there... and here is total precip over the next 10 days per the 00Z GFS.   Very strange.

 

 

Willing to bet we probably won't see rain until Thanksgiving. And when I say rain, I'm talking about meaningful rainfall and none of that 0.01" to 0.05" crap. 

 

In what supposed to be rainiest month could be historically dry.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Drought busting. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Willing to bet we probably won't see rain until Thanksgiving. And when I say rain, I'm talking about meaningful rainfall and none of that 0.01" to 0.05" crap. 

 

In what supposed to be rainiest month could be historically dry.

 

Hard to say. We could get 2-3 systems towards the end of the month that drop 5" of rain. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

57/30 so that should be another negative departure.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hey folks! I got MAPz!

[Timmy Supercell]

Hard to say. We could get 2-3 systems towards the end of the month that drop 5" of rain. 

 

Dry Novembers could still translate to white Turkey Days here too. I'm sure it's happened a few times.

[umadbro]

Whoa, tacomawx and Jesse went a little overboard. I expected that from Jesse, but I thought Tacomawx would have been a bit more reasonable. No malice intended or anything like that, boys. Move along.

[Gradient Keeper]

Hey folks! I got MAPz!

 

I just marked this down on my calendar thingy as "Arctic blast LIKELY!"

 

00z ECMWF in 37 minutes

[jcmcgaffey]

That hasn't really been the case. I think most people here acknowledge that the last ten or so years have been a lot better than the previous 10-12 in terms of winter cold. Most of the complaining is from people who happen to get left out of snow events (that happens often even in generally cold winters), or about the fact that the other three seasons have been inordinately on the torchy side, especially summer.

 

Of course, even with generally average to coolish winters since ~2007, it's been anywhere from 21 to 29 years (depending on who you ask) since we have seen a legitimate, top tier arctic blast in the dead of winter around here. So we are certainly due for one of those, whatever that entails.

ya that’s true. It has been more in relation to snow. But I felt like there has been complaining of lack of cold/cool weather as well but that is also more in relation to our recent summers.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well that CFS run was fun. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Latest Newz

 

[stuffradio]

Talking about weather on a weather forum is pretty much the height of unkool.

Don't drink the coolaid

[ShawniganLake]

Well that CFS run was fun.

The CFS monthly panels have been looking very nice for DJF. Big Fat North Pacific ridge.

[BLI snowman]

Latest Newz

 

 

 

Queue Phil!

[Phil]

Latest Newz

 

That already busted.

 

FWIW:

 

[Gradient Keeper]

[Phil]

That already busted.

 

FWIW:

 

And ENSO is now warmer than the positively correlated years.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Super Nino forthcoming. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty solid negative departures in the Willamette Valley today. -4 at PDX and EUG, -5 at SLE.

[Phil]

At some point you have to call a spade a spade.

 

With the WWB coming up mid-month, this progression will only be reinforced as we move into December, when the potential for destructive interference will be lowest.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Super wish the ICON went out to 800 hours. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At some point you have to call a spade a spade.

 

With the WWB coming up mid-month, this progression will only be reinforced as we move into December, when the potential for destructive interference will be lowest.

 

Poor Jim. You really gotta feel for the guy.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Ensembles - Portland

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z GFS Ensembles - Portland

 

 

Tracks well with the CFS solution. 

[BLI snowman]

 

 

Nino is raging. Mid Atlantic is gonna score.

[Deweydog]

So 1990 is now an analog???

[Jesse]

PDX has already been as low as 40 tonight...

[Gradient Keeper]

PDX has already been as low as 40 tonight...

Fake cold is trying to develop.... It's the most exciting thing we've seen in 190 hours.

[Timmy Supercell]

So 1990 is now an analog???

 

2019 is the best analog.

[Jesse]

Fake cold is trying to develop.... It's the most exciting thing we've seen in 190 hours.

 

The fake low sun angles definitely help with that.