Gradient Keeper Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 00z GFS Ensembles - Well, I've seen worse. Still gets a bit chilly. Portland http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png Seattlehttp://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 Gfs gets wet in the clown range, but not very wet at all for November through day 10. Could make a run at being the driest November’s I’ve recorded in the last 15 years. 3.21” in 2007 is the driest at the moment we need 2.44” to avoid that. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 I'll rejoice in the coming cold(cool) pool.... Before we either head into a pattern change or retrogression commences. 00z EPS in 2 hours 50 minutes 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 .34” on the day. Currently 45 degrees. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 Euro brings Monday’s system further south than the GFS. The majority of the rain falls south of Seattle 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 About 100 feet of visibility right now. Thickest fog I've seen in a few years. 2 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 Canadian ensembles big retrogression with a modest southeast US ridge. Just need a bit more amplification/tilt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 00z ECMWF 7 Day Rainfall Totals 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 I’ve got my extrapolation easel all set up, standing by for hour 240! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 Rain is basically over by Monday evening... then dry for the rest of the run. That crazy consistent EPS was sure wrong about a blocky and generally dry November. Split flow mania even in the long range on the 00Z ECMWF: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 I’ve got my extrapolation easel all set up, standing by for hour 240! 5 days ago and 4 days ago and 3 days ago and 2 days ago... the ECMWF was going some place special at day 10. Today is no exception... we have a repeat of Monday's trough coming in again. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 Very ugly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 We all might as well take a break for 4-5 days and then see how models look..... Right. Like we'd ever do that. 6z GFS in 2 hours 25 minutes Good night 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 Could be nice leaf blower shopping weather next weekend. 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 Really getting the feeling we are going to pay big time for all this boring weather we’re having now at some point. Went through a period of active weather 9/7-10/31, boring period the last 2 weeks...will probably last a couple more weeks then BOOM. 4 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 Could be nice leaf blower shopping weather next weekend.You’re welcome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakeinthevalley Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 Could be nice leaf blower shopping weather next weekend.Almost time for the year end close out sales. Kind of like shopping for snow blowers in May Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 The polar Vortex looks to take a beating 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChilliwackBCwx Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 What's wrong with the 00Z Euro? low placement isn't very good for mountain snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChilliwackBCwx Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 Seems like we went through this last year rinse and repeat c**p. I think that's when we start bailing take a break for awhile enjoy some family time and your Seahawks my oh my! bye week I believe. Finish up chores around the house your Thanksgiving holiday's are right around the corner. Love this time of year it even feels like the official kick off to Christmas season up here as well. The models will still be there when you look again maybe they will look better then. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChilliwackBCwx Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 The polar Vortex looks to take a beating C5C0AE09-2158-47D7-8F06-039B79CFA8EF.png4452953A-111C-4602-90A2-2FD885CE6B76.png Geez! it looks like it's shrinking kinda like when you stand outside too long in the cold (guy's would understand) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 Dense fog this morning. Low of 42. Picked up only .15” precip yesterday, with a high of 56. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 Got down to 44 this morning and cloudy here. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 Seems like we went through this last year rinse and repeat c**p. I think that's when we start bailing take a break for awhile enjoy some family time and your Seahawks my oh my! bye week I believe. Finish up chores around the house your Thanksgiving holiday's are right around the corner. Love this time of year it even feels like the official kick off to Christmas season up here as well. The models will still be there when you look again maybe they will look better then.Will you be with your pals Pokey, Prickle and Goo? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 Gfs isn’t very wet over the next 5 days, even less so south of the WA/OR border. Vancouver island is the bullseye of the precip with 2-3” there but only 0.5”-1.0” predicted over the next few days in western WA, 0.10”-0.50” in western OR. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 16, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 47F and cloudy. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 Really getting the feeling we are going to pay big time for all this boring weather we’re having now at some point. Went through a period of active weather 9/7-10/31, boring period the last 2 weeks...will probably last a couple more weeks then BOOM.Exactly , it will happen too! I have no doubt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 16, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 Really getting the feeling we are going to pay big time for all this boring weather we’re having now at some point. Went through a period of active weather 9/7-10/31, boring period the last 2 weeks...will probably last a couple more weeks then BOOM.Would be nice but I’m just not feeling it anymore. I thought that cold October was going to lead us into a stretch where we saw more regular periods of cold but instead we have had 02-03 redux to this point. That was a year where the 534 thickness line never even made it to the Willamette Valley. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 34 and fog, was upper 20's just before sunrise. Nice to see the fog making more of a comeback. I live in a pretty foggy place on average in the Fall and Winter seasons, and I've had countless clear mornings here in 2019. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 26 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 Would be nice but I’m just not feeling it anymore. I thought that cold October was going to lead us into a stretch where we saw more regular periods of cold but instead we have had 02-03 redux to this point. That was a year where the 534 thickness line never even made it to the Willamette Valley.October 2002 wasn’t even cold like this October, it just had some cold at the end. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 Would be nice but I’m just not feeling it anymore. I thought that cold October was going to lead us into a stretch where we saw more regular periods of cold but instead we have had 02-03 redux to this point. That was a year where the 534 thickness line never even made it to the Willamette Valley. We will see, you honestly never know. Most people considered last winter a lost cause. It’s never over until it’s over. Things can change so quickly, we were very active in terms of weather in September and October, pattern couldn’t stay like that forever so it flipped. This pattern won’t stick with us the entirety of the winter, although I do think split flow will be with us for most of the winter. I wouldn’t be surprised if this pattern we were in stayed with us for a few more weeks before a shift into something else. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 October 2002 wasn’t even cold like this October, it just had some cold at the end. Oct 2019 might have even had a lower mean temperature than 2002 in some locations, including here. It was a more consistent cold last month. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 26 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 Destructive storms even in the Banana belt!!! lol, those were awesome ice storms back then should read Hanwood Lane Oak Grove areaWow, that's the type of picture I'd expect near the Gorge not in the Milwaukie dome! I read good things about the January 7-10, 1980 snow/ice storms. Must of been one heck of a messy transition event getting out of all the cold air. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 Oct 2019 might have even had a lower mean temperature than 2002 in some locations, including here. It was a more consistent cold last month.Might have? 2019 was colder than 2002 across the board. There’s really no contest. PDX’s mean temperature was three degrees colder in 2019 than 2002. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 We’re still on the lift hill prior to this winter getting crazy if this is indeed a neutral ENSO! patiently waiting in line for 6 weeks of craziness currently 43* and dull looking outside Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 12z GFS When looking at the 850s just enough intrusion of Canadian air and definite cold pool signature is showing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 12z GFS When looking at the 850s just enough intrusion of Canadian air and definite cold pool signature is showing.Better than nothing I suppose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 Some dribbles here in Lynden currently. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 It’s November 16. Winter hasn’t even started. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 16, 2019 Report Share Posted November 16, 2019 Wow, that's the type of picture I'd expect near the Gorge not in the Milwaukie dome! I read good things about the January 7-10, 1980 snow/ice storms. Must of been one heck of a messy transition event getting out of all the cold air.Not sure how PGE felt about those storms!Dad loved them though. He would stoke the wood stove getting are house to 100* and open doors to let cool air in. He was a proud man reliving those days on the farm in North Dakota! Us kids would play that hand held football game endlessly as we weren’t allowed outside due to falling tree branches and getting hit by ice bombs! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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