November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Kayla]

Bozeman had a -25.8 monthly departure with an -0.7 average in January 1937. Coldest month on record by a long shot since 1892.

 

27 days dropped below zero. Truly remarkable month.

[Kayla]

The active MJO is our ace in the hole.  It's only a matter of time.  In the meantime next week will be colder than most people think.

 

I like the 12z Euro as well at day 10. Tons of potential there. I think people keep forgetting that day 10 still only brings us to the 26th.

[ShawniganLake]

I heard Dewey is willing to lend his extrapolation easel to anyone who is without at this time.

[MossMan]

Hopefully this gooey light rain fest here in Lynden will move on soon. I’m ready for the big dryness coming in 72hrs!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

[Jesse]

Hopefully this gooey light rain fest here in Lynden will move on soon. I’m ready for the big dryness coming in 72hrs!

If one of the driest Novembers on record is too wet for you, you are probably living in the wrong climate zone.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This dry bs this time of year is gross. A few days is ok but this is ridiculous. Good news is it won't last much longer and when it changes it probably will in a big way.

.

[MossMan]

If one of the driest Novembers on record is too wet for you, you are probably living in the wrong climate zone.

Wow only a one minute response time...Not bad Jesse...Not bad at all!!

[Jesse]

Wow only a one minute response time...Not bad Jesse...Not bad at all!!

Yup! Happened to log then, and you know a negative response is what you were wanting anyway.

 

Looks like I beat your four minutes!

[MossMan]

[MossMan]

I’m going to put up my Christmas Lights in 72hrs!

[Omegaraptor]

This dry bs this time of year is gross. A few days is ok but this is ridiculous. Good news is it won't last much longer and when it changes it probably will in a big way.

.

 

All this is doing is pointlessly delaying ski season. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

A nice graphic to show just how amazing October really was. This is classic...a very cold October follwed by ridging right over us in November. Recipe for a great winter.

That temperature profile across the US is about as good as it gets for the PNW in the cold season. I'm still thinking we get one month of cold and snowy weather. With that month being January.

[Timmy Supercell]

I’m going to put up my Christmas Lights in 72hrs!

 

Got mine up already! 

 

[Deweydog]

Blasphemy!!!

[High Desert Mat?]

Soooooo, any word on the SSW?

[Jesse]

Got mine up already! 

 

That’s pretty clever.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Got mine up already! 

 

Not the usual Christmas tree.

[Jesse]

[Anti Marine Layer]

Kevin from Home Alone was afraid Miami would not have any Christmas trees.

[TacomaWaWx]

Lol so this year has been too wet for some of us still?

[ShawniganLake]

Quite an impressive plume of tropical moisture aimed at Vancouver Island right now (NW section). Should be 24hr totals of 4-7” even at lower elevations.

[Jesse]

Quite an impressive plume of tropical moisture aimed at Vancouver Island right now (NW section). Should be 24hr totals of 4-7” even at lower elevations.

The cedars cry out in joy.

[TT-SEA]

Lol so this year has been too wet for some of us still?

 

 

I think he just said he was not enjoying the gooey light rain fest up there... he did not say anything about the entire year.   A gooey light rain fest is pretty gross and pointless.   Its not like there is anything interesting coming... and there is no snow for the mountains.   

[TacomaWaWx]

I think he just said he was not enjoying the gooey light rain fest up there... he did not say anything about the entire year. A gooey light rain fest is pretty gross and pointless. Its not like there is anything interesting coming... and there is no snow for the mountains.

also to be fair to you guys, you live in the foothills so it obviously seems more gloomy and rainy there, since it is. However it didn’t rain for like 2-3 weeks beforehand, and after this rain another lengthy dry period is coming most likely so I’m sure you guys will survive .

[ShawniganLake]

The cedars cry out in joy.

We’ll be pretty well shadowed for most of today down here. Record dry November could be within reach if Monday’s storm takes that southern track.

[Timmy Supercell]

We’ll be pretty well shadowed for most of today down here. Record dry November could be within reach if Monday’s storm takes that southern track.

 

And if it takes a northern track, my area gets a record November. Who wants it more?? 

[TT-SEA]

also to be fair to you guys, you live in the foothills so it obviously seems more gloomy and rainy there, since it is. However it didn’t rain for like 2-3 weeks beforehand, and after this rain another lengthy dry period is coming most likely so I’m sure you guys will survive .

This is all a bunch of crap. He just said he was not enjoying the current gooey rain fest. You are extrapolating way beyond that for some reason.

 

And side note... it was consistently sunnier and warmer in my area than in your area during the dry spell.

[ShawniganLake]

And if it takes a northern track, my area gets a record November. Who wants it more??

The Euro has the more southern track. Still looks pretty dry down there.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

60F and pleasant with filtered sunshine. Kiddos have been able to play outside in t shirts. I remember November being warm at times in Nov 2013 I think.

[Timmy Supercell]

60F and pleasant with filtered sunshine. Kiddos have been able to play outside in t shirts. I remember November being warm at times in Nov 2013 I think.

 

Nov 2016 was a warm one, and regionally I'm sure. Though that one also rained.. this one is a lot drier.

[ShawniganLake]

18Z looks wetter next Sunday.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF ensemble mean and control have both shown a major pattern change very late month the last couple of runs.  They both show sharply rising heights over the Western GOA.  The East can have November as far as I'm concerned.  I really think we are very well positioned for this winter.

[snow_wizard]

18Z looks wetter next Sunday.

 

I would call that period highly uncertain right now.

[snow_wizard]

I think he just said he was not enjoying the gooey light rain fest up there... he did not say anything about the entire year.   A gooey light rain fest is pretty gross and pointless.   Its not like there is anything interesting coming... and there is no snow for the mountains.   

 

Exactly.

[snow_wizard]

60F and pleasant with filtered sunshine. Kiddos have been able to play outside in t shirts. I remember November being warm at times in Nov 2013 I think.

 

This kind of thing has happened in November before some of our greatest winters.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

This kind of thing has happened in November before some of our greatest winters.

Those days happen every winter. Even the greatest, coldest, snowiest winters have days like that. And so do the suckfest winters.

[Jesse]

Exactly.

Death to warm anomalies!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Gradient Keeper]

BIG changes on the EURO and EPS specifically at Day 4-6. Trending to keep the offshore ridge stronger and now at Day 5 there is a ridge merger we did not see in previous runs. Day 6 the ridge axis is further offshore. From that point on the block strengthen significantly into a real Goliath. EPS day 7-10 slowly backs the ridge to the west. This also means more chilly Canadian air will infiltrate eastern Washington resulting in a modest Columbia Basin cold pool and east wind for many days. It is very interesting after Day 5 how profoundly different the EURO/EPS is compared to the GFS/GEM. I wasn't expecting that.

 

00z GFS in 3 hours 18 minutes

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