ShawniganLake Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Crazy considering the stellar mountain snow pattern we have been in the last 2-3 weeks.I was up here 2 weeks ago and the passes were bare so that has fallen in the past 2 weeks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Just drove up to the Okanagan. Pretty sad looking snow in the mountain passes. Barely even a trace around the 4000ft level. Looked like maybe 4” or so around the 5000-5500ft level. Looked like the smaller lakes were starting to freeze up above the 4000ft level.With this upcoming "cold snap", do you think highs of 3 lows of -2 are a good bet here in town? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Nice brown haze over Seattle... that has to make the polluted inversion enthusiasts happy. As long as it's not wildfire smoke... it's awesome! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 I was up here 2 weeks ago and the passes were bare so that has fallen in the past 2 weeks.I went to Kelowna for a week in the last week of October and they were bare. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 Nice brown haze over Seattle... that has to make the polluted inversion enthusiasts happy. As long as it's not wildfire smoke... it's awesome! Too warm. Needs fog. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 With this upcoming "cold snap", do you think highs of 3 lows of -2 are a good bet here in town?Could end up there after mid week. Tough to say how cold the lower level outflow will end up by the end of the week. Highs upper 30s to around 40 seem like a good bet. Wind sheltered areas will be much colder than -2C at night though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 Too warm. Needs fog.There's still plenty south of OLM, Chehalis has been socked in all day. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 Nice brown haze over Seattle... that has to make the polluted inversion enthusiasts happy. As long as it's not wildfire smoke... it's awesome! Don't worry, the fog will reform and envelop the cam thus rendering your gripe moot. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 56/29 at SLE today. So +3 total on the forecast. They will need to make some of that up in the next 10 days if they wish to finish the month below average. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 Don't worry, the fog will reform and envelop the cam thus rendering your gripe moot.No... its still brown and smoggy now. That is nice to see. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 22, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 54F for now. If we don't get any warmer, the 54/27 spread will get us our first negative departure since Nov 7. A roughly -2F departure. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 -2 departure at SLE today. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 Nice to see the 18z op was a warm outlier too. Cold 00z runs tonight. If not, I’m shaving my head. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 I went to Kelowna for a week in the last week of October and they were bare.It is chilly here in Penticton, though. Below freezing already at 4pm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 Block is also slightly further east on the 18z ECMWF compared to the 12z at the same time. 4 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 Nice to see the 18z op was a warm outlier too. Cold 00z runs tonight. If not, I’m shaving my head.OH MAN, I want pics of that show dude! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 Excerpt from NWS Seattle AFD this afternoon: Given this cold...but drier...trend in themodels...any earlier prognostications of the white stuff may havebeen made in earnest. Guess it's time to stick a fork in it, folks! Nothing to see here.We need JAYA to come out of retirement for this upcoming event! 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 Yes, Esquimalt gave the right URL http://forums.bcstorms.ca. There's a long story about that weatherpage forum being shutdown and I won't get into it publicly.Nice forum, you got a lot of members. Does anybody from Washington or Oregon post there? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 18z EURO! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 We need JAYA to come out of retirement for this upcoming event!Better chance of Jesse and Dewey signing a peace treaty 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 18z GEFS PDX Mean temp -8c. Yakima -12c with large cluster -10c to -15c. Not bad.Hopefully it will trend colder as we get closer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 00z runs will be colder! MBG Money Back Guarantee! 00z GFS in 3 hours 49 minutes00z GEFS in 5 hous 21 minutes00z GEM in 4 hours 11 minutes00z ECMWF in 6 hours 6 minutes00z EPS in 8 hours 50 minutesI like the sound of that! Let's go cold and snow! ❄ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 I just noticed that the NWS, at least the pdx office, is now posting what they believe to be the snow level on the local forecast. Pretty cool. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 I’m afraid the radio news folks (PDX) said it will snow next Wednesday here so your just gonna have to deal with it. heard it with my own ears 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 22, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 I just noticed that the NWS, at least the pdx office, is now posting what they believe to be the snow level on the local forecast. Pretty cool. Yes indeed From NWS PDX: Sunday night through Thanksgiving Day...Theunseasonable doldrums which have dominated much of November acrossSW Washington and NW Oregon appear to give way to a significantlymore active pattern as we head into early next week. Beyond thefirst front expected to move through the forecast area Sunday,additional shortwave energy will move through for more precipitationthrough Monday. Meanwhile, snow levels will be lowering as flowaloft turns more northwesterly, likely lowering below the passesSunday night then remaining there through much, if not all, ofThanksgiving week. Therefore by Monday one can expect to encounterwintry travel across the Cascades, with snow levels lowering intothe foothills Monday and Monday night as a large upper level troughcarves out over the Pac NW. Attention then turns to the low pressure system shown by manymodels/ensembles rounding the base of said upper trough and movinginto the West Coast, mainly Tuesday. There are still enormousdifferences between members regarding the evolution of this system,with the range of landfall solutions extending from Vancouver Islandto south of San Francisco and solutions for the low's intensityranging from sub-960 mb to around 1000 mb as it moves onshore. Giventhe cold air pushing down with the upper trough, and the potentialfor the low to come onshore to the south of all or part of theforecast area, this system will need to be watched for the potentialfor low elevation snow north of the low. That said, no singlesolution can be trusted (nor discounted) at this point, especiallygiven the variance between guidance. For now, we continued to trendour forecast colder, with snow levels generally around 2000 feetTuesday then down to 1000-1500 feet by Wednesday. Longer rangeguidance appears to be in decent agreement that the upper troughwill park over the Pac NW through Thanksgiving, with scatteredshowers and possibly even a few flurries reaching down to the lowestelevations. Weagle 4 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 Nice forum, you got a lot of members. Does anybody from Washington or Oregon post there?Two people joined just today from south of the border. No one else otherwise. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 TWL, I was referring to the forecast itself, but it's nice to see it on the AFD as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 Yeah, once we do finally "score" it will feel much better knowing all the suffering we went through. It will make it more special. What I hate is the final few hours prior to the snow event and then it’s snatched away or goes around you!!! That’s when I suffer a very sad snow meltdown 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 Block is also slightly further east on the 18z ECMWF compared to the 12z at the same time. Screen Shot 2019-11-21 at 5.31.01 PM.pngI believe I'm seeing the tilt just ever slightly more favorable similar to 18z GEFS with the offshore ridge as it merges evolving into the block. 00z NAM in 15 minutes. Yes, we can look for trends around Day 3. C'MON!!!! Show the Nammy some love! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 Two people joined just today from south of the border. No one else otherwise.Nice, looks like some really high quality weather discussion over there. I might join later down the road. Always been intrigued about your climate up there and the Fraser River outflow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 What I hate is the final few hours prior to the snow event and then it’s snatched away or goes around you!!! That’s when I sufer a very sad snow meltdownI think I get more sad when we get a fresh snowfall and then it immediately starts raining on it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 OH MAN, I want pics of that s**t show dude!LMAO .... Me too. I'll go one further. If 00z runs aren't colder I will run around my backyard naked and take a video of it. 00z GFS in 1 hour 58 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 What I hate is the final few hours prior to the snow event and then it’s snatched away or goes around you!!! That’s when I suffer a very sad snow meltdownYeah, that's happened a few times or when you expect snow but get sleet or freezing rain instead lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 At this point I would say I have about a 25% of 1"+ of snow next week. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 I believe I'm seeing the tilt just ever slightly more favorable similar to 18z GEFS with the offshore ridge as it merges evolving into the block. 00z NAM in 15 minutes. Yes, we can look for trends around Day 3. C'MON!!!! Show the Nammy some love!So if the blocking is a it further East. Dows it cause the Tuesday system to come in further North? Mountains need snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 I think I get more sad when we get a fresh snowfall and then it immediately starts raining on it. And it always seems to be easiest to get snow as a cold pattern is ending, guaranteeing that this is a common fate for most snowfalls here. The snow events that are followed by several days of freezing weather are a rare treat. 2 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 22, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 And it always seems to be easiest to get snow as a cold pattern is ending, guaranteeing that this is a common fate for most snowfalls here. The snow events that are followed by several days of freezing weather are a rare treat. Dec 2013 3 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 Yes indeed From NWS PDX: Sunday night through Thanksgiving Day...Theunseasonable doldrums which have dominated much of November acrossSW Washington and NW Oregon appear to give way to a significantlymore active pattern as we head into early next week. Beyond thefirst front expected to move through the forecast area Sunday,additional shortwave energy will move through for more precipitationthrough Monday. Meanwhile, snow levels will be lowering as flowaloft turns more northwesterly, likely lowering below the passesSunday night then remaining there through much, if not all, ofThanksgiving week. Therefore by Monday one can expect to encounterwintry travel across the Cascades, with snow levels lowering intothe foothills Monday and Monday night as a large upper level troughcarves out over the Pac NW. Attention then turns to the low pressure system shown by manymodels/ensembles rounding the base of said upper trough and movinginto the West Coast, mainly Tuesday. There are still enormousdifferences between members regarding the evolution of this system,with the range of landfall solutions extending from Vancouver Islandto south of San Francisco and solutions for the low's intensityranging from sub-960 mb to around 1000 mb as it moves onshore. Giventhe cold air pushing down with the upper trough, and the potentialfor the low to come onshore to the south of all or part of theforecast area, this system will need to be watched for the potentialfor low elevation snow north of the low. That said, no singlesolution can be trusted (nor discounted) at this point, especiallygiven the variance between guidance. For now, we continued to trendour forecast colder, with snow levels generally around 2000 feetTuesday then down to 1000-1500 feet by Wednesday. Longer rangeguidance appears to be in decent agreement that the upper troughwill park over the Pac NW through Thanksgiving, with scatteredshowers and possibly even a few flurries reaching down to the lowestelevations. WeagleWay to hedge your bets..... Oh we're giving ourselves a 850 mile wide berth on landfall. Seems the modelling is just a touch discombobulated with this pattern change. That's all I have to say 'bout that 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 18z looks disgustingly dry. Hopefully wetter runs to come. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 I think I get more sad when we get a fresh snowfall and then it immediately starts raining on it.The southerly wind ######! lol, southerly should be censored as well 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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