Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Wow, Even stronger than what models showed for the November 2014 event? I'm just hesitant because not a single met has mentioned the possibility (except Mark-- he said "strong" east winds).Yep stronger than then. The difference then was deeper cold air sloshing over the Washington Cascades. However, 50kts at 800mb(6500') is pretty decent. I would like to see future runs of the MM5-NAM, WRF show 60kts+ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Day 9-10 EURO trying to go places The 12z EPS control showed that block working out very well for us. We'll see what tonight's run shows. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 It was a fun filled B-Day complete with an early morning walk with the dogs while everyone else was still asleep, Seahawks, working in the yard, completing Christmas Lights, and BBQ’ing this evening. Nice day! Had a shower move through a bit ago adding to my total for the day... .16” and 3.43” for the month. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 I wouldn’t live there if you paid me. Why not? The traffic, homeless population and public defecation? We seem to have plenty of that in Portland too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 00z WRF 976 Cape Blanco North Bend 978/979mb, Spokane 1011mb OTH-GEG -32 to -33mb! Good lord. North Bend 978/979mb, Yakima 1005mb OTH-YKM -26 to -27mb. 4km Sounding PDX 7 PM Tuesday. WOW! Insane winds coming for PDX metro, Foothills. The one mitigating factor could be there is so much northerly component to the surface gradient. I know that is really going to limit east winds for my area this week. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 11:35 PM Radar UpdateIt has been awhile since we saw this. There is a band of moderate to heavy rain with torrential downpours from Vancouver up to Battle Ground and another area Kelso-Longview. That looks impressive! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Why not? The traffic, homeless population and public defecation? We seem to have plenty of that in Portland too. You have to love what the liberal mayors have allowed to happen in these once great cities. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Why not? The traffic, homeless population and public defecation? We seem to have plenty of that in Portland too.I don’t live in downtown Portland. Although none of those things really seem as bad as people on here make it out to be in either area. The hype is worse than the reality. The main reason I wouldn’t live in downtown Seattle is because their climate sucks. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 6z NAM running Where does NAMMY take the bomb low on Tuesday? Does the trend continue to shift the low south, or does it edge a bit north of 00z guidance? No idea. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Band of moisture right over me and it's coming down at pretty good clip. Believe this something the HRRR was showing and not the ECMWF. Already picking up 0.05" in about 20 minutes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 I don’t live in downtown Portland. Although none of those things really seem as bad as people on here make it out to be in either area. The hype is worse than the reality. The main reason I wouldn’t live in downtown Seattle is because their climate sucks. Fair. I lived in Seattle for a few years. I do prefer Portland's climate at least in the winter, I think it is capable of some slightly more interesting events due to the gorge. The PSCZ is handy though, I do miss that now that I live in the arid Washington county wasteland. I like Seattle's cooler summer weather hands down.Really I think both their climates suck, at least their downtowns. I'm just glad Portland and Seattle are both surrounded by areas that have way better climates. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Fair. I lived in Seattle for a few years. I do prefer Portland's climate at least in the winter, I think it is capable of some slightly more interesting events due to the gorge. The PSCZ is handy though, I do miss that now that I live in the arid Washington county wasteland. I like Seattle's cooler summer weather hands down.Really I think both their climates suck, at least their downtowns. I'm just glad Portland and Seattle are both surrounded by areas that have way better climates.I would agree with all of this. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 I knew I should have cleaned my gutters out. For the first time since 2002, moderate rain is occurring. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Hmmm, low is developing a bit sooner and the jet on this run is at 185kts. 00z was 170-175kts. Prediction. Low is 967mb near North Bend. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Low is north of 00z and 2mb stronger. My prediction is looking good. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Night shift anybody?I just had some cannabis tea about an hour ago and we’re about to go for a walk. Let’s do this Tiger. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Nope! I LOSE. Landfall near Brookings. That Bob Grimes guy doesn't know s**t! 6z GFS in 1 hour 12 minutes It is a smidgen north though, interestingly enough. Gradient is a bit tighter. 2 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 OTH-GEG a very boring -30mb. Oh how about that snow painted over Western Washington? YEAH! C'MON!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 970mb landfall Cape Blanco. OTH-GEG -32mb (North Bend 976mb, Spokane 1008mb) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Transitional day. Gonna be a while 'til we see highs close to 50 again and many places will have a hard time reaching 40 this week for highs.My body is ready for this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Block is much stronger Day 2-3 than previous two runs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 That's a meaty wishcast there, hopefully it pans out...Keyword "potential" 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 00z EPS Day 10 a lot of potential once that eastern trough swings out 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 00z EPS Day 10 a lot of potential once that eastern trough swings out I love the blocking placement + signal. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 6z is way different...... Day 4-6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 A little chillier at the surface and 850mb for next weekend. Highs just a touch over freezing next Saturday. Brr.Day 4-6 The arctic trough digs out a bit more, then it holds over us does not eject off to the east it splits with energy going offshore. Weird. Check out the 500mb progression! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Medford OR311 AM PST Mon Nov 25 2019...Potentially historic wind storm expected Tuesday afternoon andevening....A highly unusual, rapidly deepening Pacific storm system isexpected to make landfall on the southern Oregon coast Tuesdayevening. This surface low pressure, potentially one of thedeepest recorded in recent memory, will produce very strong windsacross the region, particularly at the coast, over the arearidgelines, and in the valleys of Josephine, Jackson, andSiskiyou counties. Everyone in the affected area should beprepared for potentially damaging winds. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 we've lost the nam!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Here we go!! ORZ506-511-252300-/O.CON.KPDT.WS.A.0008.191127T0000Z-191128T0600Z/Ochoco-John Day Highlands-Central Oregon-Including the cities of Brothers, Paulina, Prairie City, Seneca,Bend, Madras, Prineville, and Redmond556 AM PST Mon Nov 25 2019...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOONTHROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to10 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph causingblowing and drifting snow.* WHERE...Ochoco-John Day Highlands and Central Oregon.* WHEN...From Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 12z NAM 3km 971mb landfall near Brookings. Also OTH-GEG of -26mb. What a beast! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 12z NAM 3km 971mb landfall near Brookings. Also OTH-GEG of -26mb. What a beast! Hey Rob. Do you have a precip map to go with that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Gotta wonder if theres going to be some wrap around or some kind of deformation for the northern parts of the valley. 1 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 11 25 19 12z NAM Radar.gifWhat an awesome track!! That thing just stalls and pumps moisture into central OR. Hope it goes just like that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 00z GEFS Teleconnections Indices forecast. Looking promising for models to come around to another cold pattern. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Pretty cool storm down there... it will be interesting to watch. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Not sure why some are saying the EPS is board. I don't see anything promising on the 00Z run in terms of mountain snow and/or starting the ski season... which is becoming concerning now. 00Z EPS was in good agreement with the operational run at day 10: Which became this by day 15: Here is the 10-15 day mean on the 850mb temps: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 311 AM PST Mon Nov 25 2019 ...Potentially historic wind storm expected Tuesday afternoon and evening... .A highly unusual, rapidly deepening Pacific storm system is expected to make landfall on the southern Oregon coast Tuesday evening. This surface low pressure, potentially one of the deepest recorded in recent memory, will produce very strong winds across the region, particularly at the coast, over the area ridgelines, and in the valleys of Josephine, Jackson, and Siskiyou counties. Everyone in the affected area should be prepared for potentially damaging winds.Going to be fun tracking this storm! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 Nice to see this... too bad it couldn't have been another 3 feet going into this cold spell. 38 with rain pounding on the roof here now. Precip should wind down during the day... and the flow turns offshore tonight. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 25, 2019 Report Share Posted November 25, 2019 La Pine this morning!Told my brother we need to go check the bird feeders over there! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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