Timmy Supercell Posted December 2, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 Lots of the snow melted.. 2" tops in the yard, from 8" just 24 hours ago. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 2, 2019 Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 We will see what the 12z shows, but the 06z wasn’t very wet or active really through day 10. We’ve gotta get a more active mountain snow pattern going to open up all the resorts and start building snowpack. Hopefully Mother Nature starts cooperating.On the bright side we didn’t hear too much about last night’s EPS so it must be pretty decent. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 2, 2019 Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 Lots of the snow melted.. 2" tops in the yard, from 8" just 24 hours ago.Spring is coming! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 2, 2019 Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 Pretty amazing how the next 10 days are pretty much bone dry now. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 2, 2019 Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 Nice to see PDX and other areas score a freeze this morning. After tomorrow we could be looking at least a 7-10 day stretch without as much of an opportunity IMO. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 2, 2019 Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 Nice to see PDX and other areas score a freeze this morning. After tomorrow we could be looking at least a 7-10 day stretch without as much of an opportunity IMO. Given how dry it looks to be over the next 7-10 days I would be surprised if most locations fail to record a freeze during that time. It is December now, it does not take much. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 2, 2019 Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 Looks like we could be 1/3 through December with most valley locations under 1/2" of rain. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted December 2, 2019 Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 Looks like we could be 1/3 through December with most valley locations under 1/2" of rain. Definitely not a very wet next 10 days for the region on the 12z. Not a lot of mountain snow either. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 2, 2019 Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 Wow. GFS has sure gone ridgy in the mid range. 6-10 day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 2, 2019 Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 Given how dry it looks to be over the next 7-10 days I would be surprised if most locations fail to record a freeze during that time. It is December now, it does not take much. Ruff 12Z CFS huh? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted December 2, 2019 Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 Cool ice patterns this morning! Even formed into my watermark on the bottom right!Tyler, your talent of catching these beautiful moments is simply amazing! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 2, 2019 Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 Really nothing to like about the 12z GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted December 2, 2019 Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 Is anything on Mt Hood open? Was there ever a year where nothing opened?One memory sticks out thinking back. My brother was part of the Franklin high school ski club in 76/77. The club had to shut down I think that year from lack of snow. found this data as well- https://www.timberlinelodge.com/mountain/historical-snow-datalooks like Spring always throws a bone during these low snow events 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 2, 2019 Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 Really nothing to like about the 12z GFS.Yeah, pretty crap run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 2, 2019 Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 Outlier Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 2, 2019 Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 Is anything on Mt Hood open? Was there ever a year where nothing opened?Timberline and Meadows are partially operating. I dont think that's ever happened before but we've gotten close a couple times this decade.Yeah, Bruno's and Pucci are open at Timberline. They currently have a 16" snow depth at the lodge. Need more snow to open the other lifts. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 2, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 Nice to see PDX and other areas score a freeze this morning. After tomorrow we could be looking at least a 7-10 day stretch without as much of an opportunity IMO. Lowest I had was 34 lol. But it's froggy though at least. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 2, 2019 Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 One memory sticks out thinking back. My brother was part of the Franklin high school ski club in 76/77. The club had to shut down I think that year from lack of snow. found this data as well- https://www.timberlinelodge.com/mountain/historical-snow-datalooks like Spring always throws a bone during these low snow eventsWow nice graph. Yeah seems like all those low snow seasons all got lots of snow in the spring, some even in May. Talk about being backloaded! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted December 2, 2019 Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 looks mehYawn. Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted December 2, 2019 Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 Okay this is getting kind of ridiculous at this point. At first the models were showing a wet zonal pattern starting around November 7. Then it was November 16. Then November 24. Now it’s December 6th and even the GFS is ripping that away now with a couple of wet days and then back to dry. The GFS has usually led the way for the past month and a half, by the way. Remember Rod Hill’s “6 weeks of rain” post? Remember the encouraging words about ski season from the forecasters at OMSI? Hmm, wonder where that all went? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 2, 2019 Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 Really nothing to like about the 12z GFS.Ensemble mean is also ridgy too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 2, 2019 Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 Okay this is getting kind of ridiculous at this point. At first the models were showing a wet zonal pattern starting around November 7. Then it was November 16. Then November 24. Now it’s December 6th and even the GFS is ripping that away now with a couple of wet days and then back to dry. The GFS has usually led the way for the past month and a half, by the way. Remember Rod Hill’s “6 weeks of rain” post? Remember the encouraging words about ski season from the forecasters at OMSI? Hmm, wonder where that all went?Gonna be a dry fall/winter. I think that was a good bet heading into the season. Gfs ensemble is very dry the next 10 days, given the time of year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted December 2, 2019 Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 Calm before the pattern shift. Dec. 15th-New Years.......epic snow and cold!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 2, 2019 Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 Okay this is getting kind of ridiculous at this point. At first the models were showing a wet zonal pattern starting around November 7. Then it was November 16. Then November 24. Now it’s December 6th and even the GFS is ripping that away now with a couple of wet days and then back to dry. The GFS has usually led the way for the past month and a half, by the way. Remember Rod Hill’s “6 weeks of rain” post? Remember the encouraging words about ski season from the forecasters at OMSI? Hmm, wonder where that all went? Starting to lose track of all the significant dry spells we've seen in the last several years. Seems that they just keep coming. A consistently good mountain snow pattern almost feels as rare as a top tier arctic blast anymore. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted December 2, 2019 Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 Okay this is getting kind of ridiculous at this point. At first the models were showing a wet zonal pattern starting around November 7. Then it was November 16. Then November 24. Now it’s December 6th and even the GFS is ripping that away now with a couple of wet days and then back to dry. The GFS has usually led the way for the past month and a half, by the way. Remember Rod Hill’s “6 weeks of rain” post? Remember the encouraging words about ski season from the forecasters at OMSI? Hmm, wonder where that all went?The trend has begun.....improvise, adapt and overcome! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 2, 2019 Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 Westerlies break thru around day 8 on the GEM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted December 2, 2019 Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 Calm before the pattern shift. Dec. 15th-New Years.......epic snow and cold!!!Including first two weeks of January!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 2, 2019 Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 King Phil was right...We are in an El Niño state. I still hope we can break free and have a good January for a change. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 2, 2019 Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 Retrogression Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 2, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 Okay this is getting kind of ridiculous at this point. At first the models were showing a wet zonal pattern starting around November 7. Then it was November 16. Then November 24. Now it’s December 6th and even the GFS is ripping that away now with a couple of wet days and then back to dry. The GFS has usually led the way for the past month and a half, by the way. Remember Rod Hill’s “6 weeks of rain” post? Remember the encouraging words about ski season from the forecasters at OMSI? Hmm, wonder where that all went? This pattern doesn't have to stick around all season. There's plenty of dry starts and late ski seasons. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 2, 2019 Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 The CFS weeklies look nice around Christmas and New Years. C’mon. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 2, 2019 Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 Okay this is getting kind of ridiculous at this point. At first the models were showing a wet zonal pattern starting around November 7. Then it was November 16. Then November 24. Now it’s December 6th and even the GFS is ripping that away now with a couple of wet days and then back to dry. The GFS has usually led the way for the past month and a half, by the way. Remember Rod Hill’s “6 weeks of rain” post? Remember the encouraging words about ski season from the forecasters at OMSI? Hmm, wonder where that all went?Still early in the season. Now if this was early January and nothing has changed then I'd start to get more concerned. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 2, 2019 Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 2, 2019 Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 Gonna be a dry fall/winter. I think that was a good bet heading into the season. Gfs ensemble is very dry the next 10 days, given the time of year.Yeah, that was the general idea. We had a cold October and a cold end to November where some folks saw some snow. The majority of people on here are calling for January to be the coldest/snowiest month so we just got to be patient. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 2, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 Still early in the season. Now if this was early January and nothing has changed then I'd start to get more concerned. Nice profile pic 2 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 2, 2019 Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 We will see what the 12z shows, but the 06z wasn’t very wet or active really through day 10. We’ve gotta get a more active mountain snow pattern going to open up all the resorts and start building snowpack. Hopefully Mother Nature starts cooperating.How often do you ski? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 2, 2019 Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 Westerlies break thru around day 8 on the GEMYes, it looks very much like last nights Euro and the EPS. WAY different than the GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 2, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 I had 0.10" all Dec 2011, no major amounts of snowfall until middle of Jan 2012, and still ended up with an above average snow winter. I remember us hunting for a home to buy that winter and recall how nice it was that the snow held off until we found our home in downtown. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 2, 2019 Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 Okay this is getting kind of ridiculous at this point. At first the models were showing a wet zonal pattern starting around November 7. Then it was November 16. Then November 24. Now it’s December 6th and even the GFS is ripping that away now with a couple of wet days and then back to dry. The GFS has usually led the way for the past month and a half, by the way.In what universe? Remember Rod Hill’s “6 weeks of rain” post? Remember the encouraging words about ski season from the forecasters at OMSI? Hmm, wonder where that all went?They were just words. They can’t change reality. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 2, 2019 Report Share Posted December 2, 2019 Nice profile pic Thanks for taking it and letting me use it! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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