FroYoBro Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Everyone is playing their character perfectly on this forum today. Good work people! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Everyone is playing their character perfectly on this forum today. Good work people! I pointed out the beautiful weather this morning and some bad operational runs (and EPS control run) and also highlighted a very cold EPS in the 10-15 day period. I can multi-task! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 I'd ban you for this post alone, but Dewey and Einstinjr would give me the business. It means nothing of course... we can still have epic cold and snow. It happened just 11 months ago and there were many signs of spring when that hammer dropped. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 The central Cascades of Washington actually get more snow on the 12Z Euro than last nights run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 28, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 That’s kind of normal. PDX got to 54 on this day in 1949. As we all know, that winter was a dud. Nov 1949 and 1995 were record warmest Novembers locally and neither of those winters were boring. lol Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 This seems to support the CFS solution. The CFS has actually been pretty consistently great. Any model has a certain degree of credibility if there is consistency involved. The EPS control has also been good for many runs now. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 The CFS has actually been pretty consistently great. Any model has a certain degree of credibility if there is consistency involved. The EPS control has also been good for many runs now.EPS control run was good... completely changed on the 12Z run. Now it's the worst of all the models. Probably best not to look. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Up to 46F with a low of 32F. Much higher and we will have another positive departure. I give Phil kudos for his warm December call. I was never really sure about this month, but had great confidence about Jan. Even this month has had some fairly chilly weather as of late though. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 I give Phil kudos for his warm December call. I was never really sure about this month, but had great confidence about Jan. Even this month has had some fairly chilly weather as of late though. Maybe up your way, but not down here by our typical standards. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Haven't heard Justin chime in lately. I am sure he would throw cold water on us too.Have been pretty busy and been in the (toasty) Midwest. Thoughts are as follows: 1. It's going to be January.2. 3rd-4th trough has never looked like anything interesting below 1000'. 3. That leads us to 7th-8th before next downstream response with potential for any arctic air. 11-13 days out simply doesn't warrant too much discussion.4. Nothing has pointed to major blast potential, IMO. This doesn't seem to be the progression for it to happen and significant amplification is hard to come by. I sense January 2012 is perhaps the best case scenario and that was with a more solid background setup. 5. It's going to be January. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 12z GEPS ensembles look good in the long range, days 12-16. Once again if the ridge can amplify a bit more then we get the goods. Lots of potential. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 The KING has spoken. I said yesterday the warm nose would eat us alive. LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Nice day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Maybe up your way, but not down here by our typical standards. North Bend only went below freezing on two nights in December... SEA bottomed out at 30 one night. SEA is at +3.6 for December... OLM is at +3.4 and BLI is +4.0 It has not been cold up here by any means. One inversion day nothwithstanding. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 I said yesterday the warm nose would eat us alive. LOLThat’s way different than the sort of warm nose pattern you were talking about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Could get blustery on the 3rd— decently good signal for a powerful low pressure system of some sort. 2 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 28, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Could get blustery on the 3rd— decently good signal for a powerful low pressure system of some sort. Weather of some sort will happen in some kind of manner next week Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 The cold air seems to hang around in the Yukon and BC. As long as it stays relatively "close" then we have a chance somewhere down the road. That's the main piece. There's no signal that I see that dislodges it in the near future. That’s way different than the sort of warm nose pattern you were talking about.I know. My humor didn't fly very well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 The EPS based teleconnection forecasts are still fantastic. PNA drop to sustained -3 on the mean and the EPO now drops to -1. No way it doesn't get cold with that. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 The cold air seems to hang around in the Yukon and BC. As long as it stays relatively "close" then we have a chance somewhere down the road. That's the main piece. There's no signal that I see that dislodges it in the near future. I know. My humor didn't fly very well. By Jan 10 it has a good chance of being here. The EPS drives the coldest anoms down to southern BC by then. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 FWIW I am no less confident about a great Janaury than I was after last night's GFS. Nothing has really changed. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Tim! Did you just post up daffodils poking their heads out? OMG dude. You are what they say you are. ha ha ha ha love it! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Hadn't realized it had torched that badly in the Puget Sound area. Salem is only running a +1.6 departure on the month. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 FWIW I am no less confident about a great Janaury than I was after last night's GFS. Nothing has really changed. What do you think about Feb any chances even if not like last year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Tim! Did you just post up daffodils poking their heads out? OMG dude. You are what they say you are. ha ha ha ha love it!As I said... it means nothing. But I have always posted a pic when they come up... can't break the streak now. You can take it lightheartedly or think its evil. But I certainly don't think its meaningful in terms of what is coming. Just an indication of how mild our climate is overall. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 A few more for your viewing pleasure. Almost a carbon copy of the current state of the forum! 7 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Hadn't realized it had torched that badly in the Puget Sound area. Salem is only running a +1.6 departure on the month. It really hasn't. Maybe it's because he hasn't gotten any of the inversionary cold like most places have. Most highs have been well below 50 this month. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Nice trip down memory lane on those previous posts. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 My plow, snow shovel, and full gas cans are waiting patently! 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 On a positive note... I just went down to the post office in sunny North Bend in shorts and a t-shirt and was not cold at all. And could show off my golden Hawaiian tan. Feeling rejuvenated after a 2-week dose of natural vitamin D. The fact that you are wearing shorts in January proves how much you need to move dude. Hilarious Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 A few more for your viewing pleasure. Almost a carbon copy of the current state of the forum! My favorite is the prayer chain for Jim. OMG. Spit Jim Beam and Coke all over my Husky Hoodie. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 What do you think about Feb any chances even if not like last year? I would normally say don't expect much from February given the ENSO state, but cold Febs do run in bunches. On the other hand the Puget Sound Lowlands have averaged below 40 each of the last 3 Februaries so there is no real reason to expect another. I suppose I would go for some possible carry over cold weather the first week, but mild for the rest of the month. That could change of course. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 My plow, snow shovel, and full gas cans are waiting patently! Your shed is so neat and tidy! 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 New Year's Day is looking really wet. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 It really hasn't. Maybe it's because he hasn't gotten any of the inversionary cold like most places have. Most highs have been well below 50 this month. This month has been total trash. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 This month has been total trash. It has, but not really warm. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 The EPS based teleconnection forecasts are still fantastic. PNA drop to sustained -3 on the mean and the EPO now drops to -1. No way it doesn't get cold with that.Wow, it starts trending even lower out towards day 15. Usually it gravitates toward 0 the longer it goes out. This is a strong signal for deep troughing in the long range. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 The fact that you are wearing shorts in January proves how much you need to move dude. HilariousIts December. And I often wear shorts in the winter here... unless it's cold and snowy or windy and raining. It's a no-brainer on a day like today. This is shorts and sweatshirt type of weather. The fact that I am comfortable wearing shorts in the winter would actually mean the opposite about moving. But that being said.. I actually would love to live in Hawaii from November - February. Its paradise. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Your shed is so neat and tidy! The opposite of my shed. Amazing how much stuff one accumulates over the years. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 I am out of town and found some service and scanned the forum real fast and wow what surprise to see Tim go straight to posting bullshitt about trends from 1 run and going to the store in shorts lol. I have been on here long enuff to know Tim is a good man and takes care of his family and that is paramount but on the forum he is a little kid. OH TIM!!! I do like him though. 2 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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