December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Jesse]

I guess the EPS is always right when it’s consistent but when it stops being consistent for the same timeframe it can be wrong unless it becomes consistent again.. then it’s right. Is that correct?

I gave up on trying to figure out the EPS philosophy around here a long time ago.

[OysterPrintout]

I guess the EPS is always right when it’s consistent but when it stops being consistent for the same timeframe it can be wrong unless it becomes consistent again.. then it’s right. Is that correct?

Also the EPS is always a trend for every single individual run.

[TT-SEA]

I guess the EPS is always right when it’s consistent but when it stops being consistent for the same timeframe it can be wrong unless it becomes consistent again.. then it’s right. Is that correct?

 

 

If the EPS stays consistent... everything else is model noise. 

 

But when its not consistent then its total crap.   Like all of this past summer.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

12Z EPS... at hour 294:

 

 

 

00Z EPS at the same time:

 

 

A shift east and weaker on the 12Z run but still cold.

 

Gonna all slide east as usual once we get to the 7-day period the rug will be pulled.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like a step back on the 12Z EPS in the 10-15 day period overall.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If the EPS stays consistent... everything else is model noise. 

 

But when its not consistent then its total crap.   Like all of this past summer.  

 

Seems like it has stayed fairly consistent...

[El_Nina]

If the EPS stays consistent... everything else is model noise. 

 

But when its not consistent then its total crap.   Like all of this past summer.

 

Isn't it the last one to flip though? Or are we thinking it could still be right?

[Perturbed Member]

12Z EPS... at hour 294:

 

 

 

00Z EPS at the same time:

 

 

A shift east and weaker on the 12Z run but still cold.

 

 

Blocking signal on the 12z looks good though, pretty good consistency overall.

 

In the EPS we trust (except when it shows persistent ridging or splitflow hell)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like a step back on the 12Z EPS in the 10-15 day period overall.    

 

Except not really. Last night was the coldest it had been in that period. You are trolling, and you are great at it, so subtle. This EPS is pretty much the same as the last many...

[MossMan]

Nearing 50 degrees!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like some potential for hefty mountain snows on the 1-2nd. That is a trend that is very positive and in the realistic range. 

[TT-SEA]

Except not really. Last night was the coldest it had been in that period. You are trolling, and you are great at it, so subtle. This EPS is pretty much the same as the last many...

 

 

Not trolling at all.    You seem to be doing nothing but that lately.  

 

There is a step back in the 10-15 day period.   It is what it is.  

[Jesse]

Looks like some potential for hefty mountain snows on the 1-2nd. That is a trend that is very positive and in the realistic range.

 

I’m liking this new Andrew.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS for the 10-15 day period:

 

 

 

00Z EPS for the 10-15 day period:

 

 

 

That is a step back.   

[Timmy Supercell]

[Omegaraptor]

At the very least the jet is pointed into the PNW and not California.

[Winterdog]

Nearing 50 degrees!

Thats fine since December is already a hairless, shriveled up road kill.

[TT-SEA]

My focus is on which way the EPS is trending... its been generally consistent but looking a little less impressive. 

 

Still a cold pattern overall.   But maybe not arctic... as has been implied recently by some people on here.

[van city]

12Z EPS for the 10-15 day period:

 

 

 

00Z EPS for the 10-15 day period:

 

 

 

That is a step back.

 

10-15 day. Come on Tim, looks pretty the same other than the tepm. anomalous.

[Deweydog]

[FroYoBro]

Lol, those maps look very similar. 

[MossMan]

Jim is not posting...Not a good sign.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

My focus is on which way the EPS is trending... its been generally consistent but looking a little less impressive. 

 

Still a cold pattern overall.   But maybe not arctic... as has been implied recently by some people on here.

 

I feel like it's been implied that it might trend Arctic but I don't think anyone on here is expecting it to.

[van city]

Lol, those maps look very similar.

 

Yeah, 10-15 is a sure thing.

[snow_wizard]

The screaming message is that all of the models still show MAJOR GOA blocking developing.  In the end we are still going to get cold.  I'm still skeptical about the brief period of Eastern troughing that is being shown on the models, but there is a growing consensus for it.  Everything is showing that any Eastern troughing will be short lived and then the door will be open for the NW.  The strong -PNA has to win out in the end.

 

On another interesting note there is a growing difference in strength GFS vs ECMWF on the big Maritime Continent MJO wave that will be developing.  The ECMWF suite of models is much stronger, which explains why the ECMWF operational gets us into a good pattern so much faster.  The GEM MJO forecast is very much like the ECMWF.  My money is still on a major cold event for us.

[GHweatherChris]

It is a step forward, to the east.

[Jesse]

Tough line to walk!

[TT-SEA]

Lol, those maps look very similar. 

 

 

Generally consistent for sure.  

 

But the cold signal is a little weaker out here... and stronger across eastern Canada.    

[Deweydog]

Said it before, I’ll say it again...

 

F*ck you, Tim.

[TT-SEA]

Tough line to walk!

 

 

Just reporting what I see.

 

I also said the consistently cold EPS means the GFS is probably wrong.   

 

You want to ignore every pro-cold thing I say... and join in the attack over any comment that is even slightly less positive.   It is an impossible line to walk actually.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12Z EPS for the 10-15 day period:

 

 

 

00Z EPS for the 10-15 day period:

 

 

 

That is a step back.   

 

Haha it is nearly identical. And if we looked at previous runs and not just the 00z which was I believe one of the colder ones in that period, there would be little if any change. 

[Jesse]

[snow_wizard]

It is a step forward, to the east.

 

It's not if you look at the teleconnection forecasts.  Any Eastern trough would have to be very short lived.

[TT-SEA]

Haha it is nearly identical. And if we looked at previous runs and not just the 00z which was I believe one of the colder ones in that period, there would be little if any change. 

 

Glad my detailed analysis has pushed you out of your mopey, depressing, intentionally trolling crap.

 

You are genuinely excited about the inversion pattern coming right??     

[Deweydog]

Of course if those EPS’s by happenstance were reversed there would be no fewer than six different posts to the effect of “the EPS is the coldest yet!!!”

 

Upset tummies...

[Gradient Keeper]

00z runs brings the madness back! (In a good way)

[El_Nina]

00z runs brings the madness back! (In a good way)

It's already back

[TT-SEA]

So sensitive.   

 

The EPS did take a step back in the long range.   Its not trolling.   Its what I see.  The cold is still coming... as I said with this very well liked post this morning.   

 

 

 

 

EPS is starting to look like last February in the long range.    Very strong signal for the 10-15 day period.

 

This IS coming... lest any of you doubt.

 

[Jesse]

Found this at a used book store yesterday.

 

Some pretty awesome pics, many of which I have never seen before.

 

[snow_wizard]

00z runs brings the madness back! (In a good way)

 

I'm not worried at all as long as that big fat GOA block is there.  I've never seen one of those in the position being shown not deliver in the end.  It wouldn't shock me to see the Eastern trough diminish on future runs.  Even if it remains it only spells a few days delay for us.