January 2020 Observations & Discussion

[Niko]

@Niko- Check out the 12z GFS...GHD III in the making?!?!

 

Then followed by 2 impressive arctic blasts. Maybe, just maybe this one sticks around...

Tbh, cant disregard the GFS even though its a long way out because it has fairly good credit w me for long range.

[Niko]

Attm, 34F w rain.

[Clinton]

Super Bowl weekend looking interesting for those across the eastern Sub (OHV/GL's) as the Euro Op/GFS/GEFS/EPS/Euro Control are all pointing towards a potential storm system...possibly significant???

Would this be the return of the Gulf/OV low?

[bud2380]

Models are pretty quite for the next 7 days after this storm moves away.  It's been a pretty active 3 weeks.  IMBY we've had 2 WSW one with an ice storm, one with about 4" of snow, followed up by this WWA event that dropped about 6" in the 3 days.  So, not a bad period of weather.  I'd really love it if we could finally get one big wrapped up storm here, it's been awhile since we've had a real big one with widespread 6-10"+. 

[bud2380]

DVN calling out the GFS, LOL.  

 

 

On the other hand, the GFS is much more
benign with not much in the way of storm systems. However, this
model has also performed poorly lately with QPF/track of systems
so use with caution.

[snowstorm83]

DVN calling out the GFS, LOL.  

 

 

On the other hand, the GFS is much more

benign with not much in the way of storm systems. However, this

model has also performed poorly lately with QPF/track of systems

so use with caution.

That’s office speak for: the GFS is absolute ****

[jaster220]

Super Bowl weekend looking interesting for those across the eastern Sub (OHV/GL's) as the Euro Op/GFS/GEFS/EPS/Euro Control are all pointing towards a potential storm system...possibly significant???

 

Oh boy Tom, don't sucker me in. Every storm coming at me here in SCMI from the deep south has ended up running right over my head, even tho early projections looked east/favorable. That includes tonight's rainer which many snow maps a few days back were showing 4-6" here. The "NW and warm" trend of this winter and last continues and can't be ignored. An even stronger system would be even less likely to stay S/E of me. That's my gut feeling at the moment anyways. Not saying there won't/can't be a good storm somewhere, but the way models from L/MR have been abysmal this winter, I'd almost feel better if this was showing an EC hit attm. 

[Niko]

Ironically, I still have plenty of snowpack out there, considering it was a rainy day. Temps remained at 34F all day long.

[Mi_Matthew]

Ironically, I still have plenty of snowpack out there, considering it was a rainy day. Temps remained at 34F all day long.

Agreed. Tips of grass are starting to poke through now, surprised that much survived though.

[jaster220]

Ironically, I still have plenty of snowpack out there, considering it was a rainy day. Temps remained at 34F all day long.

 

Yeah, I know this slab would have staying power, but there is a huge difference between say mid-30s and mid-40s. DP's weren't that high either, tho they've come up with the precip's arrival. Tomorrow morning about 9:30 will mark 48 hrs above freezing plus the rain today as you say. Snow cover will need to hang tough thru at least part of Sunday tho just to tie Nov's 9 day streak, the longest of the winter thus far. 

[Stacsh]

Looks like quite the quiet stretch coming up. Yawn

[Clinton]

Jan hasn't been cold but I have received above average rain and snow.

With this storm, the monthly total precipitation at Kansas City has risen to 2.77" moving it up to the 10th wettest January on the 132-year record. Normal precipitation for the month of January is only 1.07"

1:26 PM - 24 Jan 2020

 

• 20 Retwe

[Clinton]

Hey, hey, hey could we get favorable teleconnections going in to Feb. The trend is in that direction. PLEASE!

[BrianJK]

Good morning all and welcome to the weekend. Just got caught up on the January thread and sounds like we’re still in the “wait 2 weeks” mode. Locally here, there’s not one sub-freezing high temp in sight.

[westMJim]

We are in a very boring stable weather pattern. Since Wednesday the temperature has ranged from just 28 to 36. It has not been below 32 since 7 AM on Thursday. So a lot of mid 30's with a lot of clouds and light rain with some light snow. Not much to say for late January. And with the current mean for the month at 30.8 and no cold in the next week or more it looks like Grand Rapids will end this January in the top 10 with a 6 or 7 warmest a good bet. The current mean at Muskegon of 31.6 would be a top 10 and looks like a 6 or 7 warmest there as well.

[Tom]

Good morning all and welcome to the weekend. Just got caught up on the January thread and sounds like we’re still in the “wait 2 weeks” mode. Locally here, there’s not one sub-freezing high temp in sight.

The snow falling this morning feels like a late March snowfall. Sadly, doesn’t look like we will see much cold air till early Feb. How much snow did you get overnight? I think I barely got 1”.

[Niko]

We are in a very boring stable weather pattern. Since Wednesday the temperature has ranged from just 28 to 36. It has not been below 32 since 7 AM on Thursday. So a lot of mid 30's with a lot of clouds and light rain with some light snow. Not much to say for late January. And with the current mean for the month at 30.8 and no cold in the next week or more it looks like Grand Rapids will end this January in the top 10 with a 6 or 7 warmest a good bet. The current mean at Muskegon of 31.6 would be a top 10 and looks like a 6 or 7 warmest there as well.

Boring is the main word for this Winter! That is the best way to describe it. Pathetic....

[Niko]

Attm, cloudy and some light snowshowers w temps at 34F. Still a good snowpack around, considering there was a killer fog last nite. Shocked to see that nothing has melted away.

[Niko]

Looks like quite the quiet stretch coming up. Yawn

Double that yawn for me also!

[Niko]

Agreed. Tips of grass are starting to poke through now, surprised that much survived though.

I was concerned last nite of that fog eating up my snowpack completely, but thankfully, it did not. At least there is snow on the ground, considering how jacked up this Winter has been.

[jaster220]

Attm, cloudy and some light snowshowers w temps at 34F. Still a good snowpack around, considering there was a killer fog last nite. Shocked to see that nothing has melted away.

 

I was concerned last nite of that fog eating up my snowpack completely, but thankfully, it did not. At least there is snow on the ground, considering how jacked up this Winter has been.

 

Low-ratio synoptic snow for the win! System snow>LES any day of the week wrt durability. 

[Niko]

Low-ratio synoptic snow for the win! System snow>LES any day of the week wrt durability. 

[jcwxguy]

Oma-dome

[OmahaSnowFan]

12Z GFS has 50s here next weekend. If it’s going to be that nice at least it’s on the weekend!

[BrianJK]

The snow falling this morning feels like a late March snowfall. Sadly, doesn’t look like we will see much cold air till early Feb. How much snow did you get overnight? I think I barely got 1”.

Trace of snow overnight. Few hundredths of slush this morning which have already melted. Overall, I netted -0.75” from this last system as I lost snow depth with all the melting and rain. The beat goes on...

[Clinton]

The CMC and Icon are teasing me with a mid week storm.  The LRC would suggest something further south like the GFS and Euro but this year who knows.

[Tom]

The CMC and Icon are teasing me with a mid week storm.  The LRC would suggest something further south like the GFS and Euro but this year who knows.

Boy, the 12z Euro Op/EPS not backing down on the -EPO to open up Feb and a nice storm track across the heartland up towards the GL's/OHV.  Sorta reminds me of Feb '18 how it flipped to major cold and snow around these parts.  The 12z Euro op has been flashing the Halloween part (Feb 3rd-5th) of the LRC and if you look at Week 2 its following what happened in November when the North American Vortex became established alongside a NE PAC Ridge/SER. Great pattern for cold and storm production.

 

3rd run in a row suggesting a Cross Polar Flow at 10mb....I think Feb will put an end to the warm regime.  

[Clinton]

Boy, the 12z Euro Op/EPS not backing down on the -EPO to open up Feb and a nice storm track across the heartland up towards the GL's/OHV.  Sorta reminds me of Feb '18 how it flipped to major cold and snow around these parts.  The 12z Euro op has been flashing the Halloween part (Feb 3rd-5th) of the LRC and if you look at Week 2 its following what happened in November when the North American Vortex became established alongside a NE PAC Ridge/SER. Great pattern for cold and storm production.

 

3rd run in a row suggesting a Cross Polar Flow at 10mb....I think Feb will put an end to the warm regime.  

I think so also, and the 10th-17th should really deliver with 2 big storms with in 5 days.

[St Paul Storm]

Up in Duluth for the weekend. An astounding 29” of snow OTG and 72” so far on the season. Absolutely crazy snow piles. The snow banks along the roads are at least 5 feet high. I got lost and look where I ended up....at NOAA!

[Tom]

Up in Duluth for the weekend. An astounding 29” of snow OTG and 72” so far on the season. Absolutely crazy snow piles. The snow banks along the roads are at least 5 feet high. I got lost and look where I ended up....at NOAA!

Amazing!  Now that's what Winter should look like my friend....

[hlcater]

This PV split at least doesn't look quite as significant as the one last year was, or even the one in 2018. Which is fine by me given that an SSW now would start to have lingering effects into severe weather season. However, a minor SSW in early february(as forecast) should be over and done with by mid march.

[snowstorm83]

12Z GFS has 50s here next weekend. If it’s going to be that nice at least it’s on the weekend!

 

Gonna be a real mild Super Bowl weekend. Euro has it getting up to 61 in Lincoln. 

[CentralNebWeather]

[Stacsh]

[CentralNebWeather]

18z? Next run will show 60 and sunny

Probably so. The way this winter has gone nothing would surprise me either way.

[Stacsh]

Probably so. The way this winter has gone nothing would surprise me either way.

to me this winter has been so odd. Near record warm but record precipitation. So it’s led to some snow, but way below average.

[Niko]

Attm, 34F w light flurries and patchy fog around.

[Clinton]

18z GFS shows a big storm in 2 weeks. I’ve typed that before over the years. What is an interesting part of this, we have postponed Christmas 3 times already with my brother from KC due to storms here or there or both places in December and twice in January. They are now scheduled to come here for Christmas the weekend of February 7-9 when the GFS shows this storm. What are the chances this verifies and we postpone again?

It could happen, we have a strong storm that I have marked for the 10th but it certainly could hit on the 9th.  The GFS is usually fast so maybe it will come in after your Christmas.

[jaster220]

Sorta reminds me of Feb '18 how it flipped to major cold and snow around these parts.

 

Uggh! The cold and snowy stretch was a great 11 days of winter. But I sorta want to forget the warmth and flooding rains that followed on the 20th. Just got the basement dry again from the 4" of rain in 2 weeks here. If only half of that was snow, the historic calls would be working out around here.     

[Niko]

Currently some light snow w temps at 33F.