January 2020 Observations & Discussion

[Hawkeye]

The euro is weaker this run, but at least it's still all snow around here.

[Tom]

I started a storm thread for the late week bowling ball...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/2163-122-125-bowling-ball-system/

[Wxmidatlantic]

Looks like it bottoms out at 12 below in Lincoln...

[Wxmidatlantic]

12 below in Lincoln

 

[Andie]

No. Texas will be in the 50's for the next week.

Dry, low humidity. Sounds great.

 

We have a humidity of 23% today and 51*. Clear. Really nice day.

[Clinton]

12z Euro also coming into range with the late month storm aswell.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Definitely not showing any kind of extreme winter weather pattern

 

Anyone worried about thr warm air showing up for this week and beyond? Looks like starting Thurs we have daytime highs above freezing (34-35) for a week plus?

[Tom]

12z Euro also coming into range with the late month storm aswell.

 

This one has a lot of potential to be a far reaching winter storm...nice way to end a rather Snowy month for those lucky enough to catch 3 winter storms in a row.  I think the Plains/MW is over due along with some of us around the lower lakes.

[Clinton]

This one has a lot of potential to be a far reaching winter storm...nice way to end a rather Snowy month for those lucky enough to catch 3 winter storms in a row.  I think the Plains/MW is over due along with some of us around the lower lakes.

No doubt and I think this storm train will continue to roll through the 20th of Feb.

[Niko]

Attm, moderate snow w temps at 21F.

[Niko]

Definitely not showing any kind of extreme winter weather pattern

 

Yep, nothing extremely frigid down the road. Just average temps to slightly below or above.

[Niko]

Issued by: Detroit - MI, US, National Weather Service,

 

 

 

...Reduced Visibilities In Narrow Line Of Heavier Snow Showers... A narrow line of heavier snow showers along the M-59 corridor is dropping south and will make for difficult travel conditions. Visibility will briefly drop to a quarter mile or less and roads will quickly become snow covered and slippery. Be sure to put your headlights on and slow down as you enter the snow band. This snow shower activity should clear Livingston, Oakland, and Macomb counties by 4 PM.

[james1976]

Cloudy and light flurries floating around all day. Definitely setting that winter mood!

[Hawkeye]

Someone on the other forum posted a Euro ensemble EPO chart.  It has a solidly positive EPO for the foreseeable future.

[St Paul Storm]

Someone on the other forum posted a Euro ensemble EPO chart. It has a solidly positive EPO for the foreseeable future.

Yep. Looks like a possible return of the Alaskan ice box and warm weather in the Midwest and East. I hope this doesn’t verify.

[CentralNebWeather]

Can’t get much more quiet than the 18z GFS. More rain than snow and lots of warm air.

[OKwx2k4]

Looking like a really "normal" to above normal finish to January is a lock in terms of temps in my area/region.

 

Possible skiff of snow or mixed precip in the modeling, but beyond that, winter stays contained just to my north.

 

My grass, clovers, and wild onions/garlic sprouting already are making things seem a bit more like spring than winter.

[Madtown]

This looks like winter is over in my opinion...couple rainers... epo in positive territory gets us to mid Feb.

[james1976]

This looks like winter is over in my opinion...couple rainers... epo in positive territory gets us to mid Feb.

That's a big call to make. Spring is a couple months away yet.

[East Dubzz]

All I see is rain on the GFS. What is this bologna!!

[hlcater]

It’s a concoction of highly uncooperative teleconnections is what it is

[Tom]

Boy, even though the pattern this week and the following week to close out January isn't necessarily conducive to support arctic cold, it is certainly going to be cold enough to support winter storms.  Could we end the month with a bang???  I think so and it will probably put the icing on the cake to what is trending to be a snowier month after a lack luster December into the first part of January for a lot of us.  I've been digging into the data and analyzing the cyclical pattern along with various other clues that are supporting my LR ideas of a "Southern Stream Dream" storm track.  I'm encouraged to see consistent run-to-run support of a substantial S Canadian blocking pattern taking hold and you can thank the 10mb pattern above which is "steering" storms farther south right at the time of year the jet stream is reaching its peak intensity.

 

Before we get into Feb, let's focus on the next Winter Storm that is showing up on the Euro Op/EPS/GEFS in the extended during the closing days of the month.  There are several reasons that lead me to believe this system will have a storm track that should become a "share the wealth" spread from the central Plains into the Lower Lakes.  Here are my reasons:

 

1) The system out near Japan tracks through S Japan with blocking over the top

 

 

2) 10mb pattern during this period is suggesting a southern tier storm track (map below)

 

3) GEFS/EPS have been trending stronger with a Blocking pattern across the Upper MW/S &SE Canada region (Notice on the 10mb Strat map where the strongest heights are located and where the Day 10 Euro Op below is showing the strongest blocking).  Interesting correlation, ay???

 

 

 

 

The Day 10 Euro snowfall map is eye candy for the Plains states as the system explodes and I could see this one become a Bowling Ball system that we will likely track.  This particular system has the characteristics for becoming a True "CO Low Bowling Ball".  Are we done after that???  Negative...the puck doesn't stop there as I'm expecting the next system during the opening days of Feb. 

 

 

FWIW, I can see why some may think winter is over, however, there are contradictory clues in the LR that we are definitely not entering a boring pattern as we are going to be in midst of the busiest part of the LRC.

 

I'll end this post with a bold call as it is going against what the models are currently showing.  As it stands now, the teleconnections are not supporting any substantial arctic air to infiltrate our pattern and I don't expect to see any this month.  However, if the 10mb/30mb illustrations below are any evidence of a potential Greenland Block and/or N Atlantic blocking pattern during the 1st week or so of Feb, this is the period I could see this development.  Check out how the warming all of a sudden shunts east towards Greenland/N ATL right around the 15th.  These maps have been useful at predicting where troughs/ridges end up growing (2-3 week lag period) in the LR so I'm starting to think there is some evidence that the models will trend towards more blocking late this month into early Feb across NE Canada/N ATL.  

 

 

 

 

Finally, the 00z GEFS Day 15 10mb Srat map below has a bulls-eye of warming tucked right inside NE Canada/Greenland, right where the LRC has had blocking develop over the course of this season.  I am a believer that there are going to be some notable trends in this region over the next week of model runs.

 

This 00z GEFS 10mb map is a big clue for a southern storm track as we enter Feb....it's not the only model showing this set up.

 

 

 

 

[Clinton]

Expecting a weak clipper today, not much moisture to work with but maybe it will surprise a little.

[IowaWX82]

Boy, even though the pattern this week and the following week to close out January isn't necessarily conducive to support arctic cold, it is certainly going to be cold enough to support winter storms.  Could we end the month with a bang???  I think so and it will probably put the icing on the cake to what is trending to be a snowier month after a lack luster December into the first part of January for a lot of us.  I've been digging into the data and analyzing the cyclical pattern along with various other clues that are supporting my LR ideas of a "Southern Stream Dream" storm track.  I'm encouraged to see consistent run-to-run support of a substantial S Canadian blocking pattern taking hold and you can thank the 10mb pattern above which is "steering" storms farther south right at the time of year the jet stream is reaching its peak intensity.

 

Before we get into Feb, let's focus on the next Winter Storm that is showing up on the Euro Op/EPS/GEFS in the extended during the closing days of the month.  There are several reasons that lead me to believe this system will have a storm track that should become a "share the wealth" spread from the central Plains into the Lower Lakes.  Here are my reasons:

 

1) The system out near Japan tracks through S Japan with blocking over the top

 

 

2) 10mb pattern during this period is suggesting a southern tier storm track (map below)

 

3) GEFS/EPS have been trending stronger with a Blocking pattern across the Upper MW/S &SE Canada region (Notice on the 10mb Strat map where the strongest heights are located and where the Day 10 Euro Op below is showing the strongest blocking).  Interesting correlation, ay???

 

 

 

 

The Day 10 Euro snowfall map is eye candy for the Plains states as the system explodes and I could see this one become a Bowling Ball system that we will likely track.  This particular system has the characteristics for becoming a True "CO Low Bowling Ball".  Are we done after that???  Negative...the puck doesn't stop there as I'm expecting the next system during the opening days of Feb. 

 

 

FWIW, I can see why some may think winter is over, however, there are contradictory clues in the LR that we are definitely not entering a boring pattern as we are going to be in midst of the busiest part of the LRC.

 

I'll end this post with a bold call as it is going against what the models are currently showing.  As it stands now, the teleconnections are not supporting any substantial arctic air to infiltrate our pattern and I don't expect to see any this month.  However, if the 10mb/30mb illustrations below are any evidence of a potential Greenland Block and/or N Atlantic blocking pattern during the 1st week or so of Feb, this is the period I could see this development.  Check out how the warming all of a sudden shunts east towards Greenland/N ATL right around the 15th.  These maps have been useful at predicting where troughs/ridges end up growing (2-3 week lag period) in the LR so I'm starting to think there is some evidence that the models will trend towards more blocking late this month into early Feb across NE Canada/N ATL.  

 

 

 

 

Finally, the 00z GEFS Day 15 10mb Srat map below has a bulls-eye of warming tucked right inside NE Canada/Greenland, right where the LRC has had blocking develop over the course of this season.  I am a believer that there are going to be some notable trends in this region over the next week of model runs.

 

This 00z GEFS 10mb map is a big clue for a southern storm track as we enter Feb....it's not the only model showing this set up.

 

 

 

 

Denial just isn’t a river in Egypt, I see

 

At least you didn’t wishcast the next few months to be like 1977-78 this time. Keep up the hack forecasts, my man, you’re ruining what little credibility that you have left.

[Stacsh]

Everyone in forecasting is saying last 2 weeks in January are going to be much AN in the Great Lakes.

[james1976]

It has been snowing lightly all day yesterday, last night and still going this morning. I've picked up another 0.4" of fluff since the Fri-Sat storm.

[Tom]

Denial just isn’t a river in Egypt, I see

 

At least you didn’t wishcast the next few months to be like 1977-78 this time. Keep up the hack forecasts, my man, you’re ruining what little credibility that you have left.

Ok Bob...your back hurting yet???

[Madtown]

That's a big call to make. Spring is a couple months away yet.

1 month...Feb. This artic outbreak this week has turned to average highs and lows. Above average temps for 10-15 days out doesn't leave much. I'll take all the snow we can get, it just doesnt look great.

[IowaWX82]

Ok Bob...your back hurting yet???

It snowed ... in Michigan ... in January. Heck of a call! My parents called and said they haven’t seen snow this deep since the ‘70s ... or November.

 

Serious question about your posts: Are they what you think is going to happen or are they the ways to potentially getting what you want — the coldest and snowiest outcome possible? It’s fine if it’s the second option but I disagree in your presentation as an objective view of what’s to come. Not everyone comes here for the same reasons.

 

I know I found this forum looking for something deeper than the nightly local news. Thought it was a place where those who knew weather talked about the weather (at least that’s how the forum is presented). It didn’t take long for me to see through the lingo and cherry-picked maps to see post after post on ways to get Snowmageddon in one’s backyard.

[East Dubzz]

It snowed ... in Michigan ... in January. Heck of a call! My parents called and said they haven’t seen snow this deep since the ‘70s ... or November.

 

Serious question about your posts: Are they what you think is going to happen or are they the ways to potentially getting what you want — the coldest and snowiest outcome possible? It’s fine if it’s the second option but I disagree in your presentation as an objective view of what’s to come. Not everyone comes here for the same reasons.

 

I know I found this forum looking for something deeper than the nightly local news. Thought it was a place where those who knew weather talked about the weather (at least that’s how the forum is presented). It didn’t take long for me to see through the lingo and cherry-picked maps to see post after post on ways to get Snowmageddon in one’s backyard.

Then why are you still here? Nobody’s forcing you to read these forums anymore.

[Clinton]

Light snow falling and cold 12 degrees.

[GDR]

Way to go 49ers!!

[westMJim]

This winter season continues to be warmer than average with the mean temperature at Grand Rapids for December being 33.2° (+4.0) and January’s mean is now at 31.9° (+7.4) with the rest of the month looking warmer than average. On the snow fall side January is now at 11.3″ and that is still below average for this date. Since December 1st GR snow fall is now at 25.6″ and for the season it is at 32.4″ all below where GR is on average thru this date. BTW it looks like the official low at GRR was 11 here at my house it got down to +7 last night before the clouds moved in. At this time it is 24 here with some light snow falling.

[Niko]

Light snow falling and cold 12 degrees.

Awesome amigo. Is the ground white?

[Clinton]

Awesome amigo. Is the ground white?

Not yet just started.

[Niko]

Attm, its 16F under deep blue skies, along w a deep snowcover. Now, this is how January should be!

[james1976]

Snowing at a decent rate right now. Nice sized flakes too.

[Hawkeye]

We have some light, fluffy accumulation this morning.  I was not expecting anything.

[Snowshoe]

Always appreciate the time you put into these write ups even if the trolls don't. 

 

 

[Snowshoe]

Winds created some serious drifts and whiteouts on Saturday. Central Wisconsin snowmobile trails are starting to shape up nicely. As always hoping for a little more snow and cold.

 

Here's a pic of my son stuck in a drift. Had to snap a photo and laugh before helping him out.