January 2020 Observations & Discussion

[Clinton]

Euro jumping on the snow wagon with the CMC for next week.  I gotta good feeling about this one KC folks lets see how it goes.

  

[Clinton]

EC also showing a southern planes smasher (also predicted by Tom) 

[Andie]

North Tx is currently dealing with flooding and high water warnings on streets. We were saturated by yesterday evening and it has been lightly raining all day and will until about 5 am. One road around the lake near me was closed yesterday. A great deal of runoff going into that lake and I'm sure the Corps of Engineers have opened the floodgates.

 

High 40's tonight and with the wind and rain it feels a lot colder.

50's tomorrow with sun, I hope.

[Niko]

Attm, cloudy w temps at 21F.

[Niko]

EC also showing a southern planes smasher (also predicted by Tom) 

Clinton, you have a good chance w this one. Its a week away, but at least models are showing something meaningful for your area.

[GDR]

Have a feeling that slammer will be a Rainer

[Mi_Matthew]

Euro jumping on the snow wagon with the CMC for next week. I gotta good feeling about this one KC folks lets see how it goes.

Looks like GFS jumping onboard with the 00z run as well.

[Stormhunter87]

All the local Mets and oax running this next one hot. Hopefully that changes but this winter is running warm.

[OKwx2k4]

EC also showing a southern planes smasher (also predicted by Tom)

Please... all I have to say. Just please. 1 time.

[Tom]

I haven't had much time to put together a LR post, so I'd like to put together some of my thoughts asI've been going back and forth on several ideas and concerns over the past week.  Once we get passed this brief, but potent cold surge, the pattern will turn more zonal mid/late next week.  A blossoming and expansive ridge will develop over central North America creating an ideal 500mb pattern for slow moving storm systems to traverse the CONUS from west to east.  Using the idea of a 30-day harmonic, the aforementioned pattern is going to come close to what resembled back in mid/late December but not nearly as warm as last month.

 

The next storm on deck (23rd-25th) is clearly showing up on the models but there are differences in strength/precip type/phasing etc.  This storm system is going to be a tricky one to track due to multiple pieces of energy and the impressive, yet expansive, blocking that will develop over the top.  Will both pieces phase together or will it end up becoming a Miller B scenario?  We have seen this Miller B storm track once before in the Autumn and given the blocking pattern setting up across S/SE Canada, I think this could be a valid scenario.  While the pattern does warm up overall over the next week or so, given the fact that normal temps are near Freezing or below for many of us on here, it doesn't mean it cannot snow.  In fact, I have found these patterns to produce a healthy amount of snow if your on the "beneficial" side of the storm.

 

 

So, where do we go from here???  My LR clues I look for up in the Strat are paying off and the development of a "Southern Stream Dream" storm track is indeed going to evolve to close out this month.  Is there a potential "Big Dog" in the works during the final days of the month?  The LRC says so...and the models are now starting to "sniff" out the potential and like I've been suggesting, the central/southern Plains/MW are in the vicinity of the potential wintry side of this storm.  I believe we are going to be entering quite an active period overall in the extended with multiple chances for winter storm systems.  Are we going to see Back-to-Back winter storms???  Is Ol' Man Winter back on the Attack??  While not an overwhelming cold pattern, it is IMHO, setting up to be one that could produce an exciting pattern for those members across the southern tier of our Sub who have missed out on the action thus far.

 

 

Based off the 00z GEFS/EPS, you can get the idea of a SW Flow pattern conducive to producing "cutters" to close out the month.

 

 

 

 

 

Finally, this info is likely geared for February but I believe it's an important clue to how this winter may finish.  You guys remember Feb '18???  I think we are seeing the models suggest something similar up in the Strat and what could transpire in the weeks to come.  The development of the Scandinavian Ridge in the extended is leading me to believe that both the GEFS/GEPS may be right in the idea of a Strat warming event to occur over the Pole to close out January.  Does it fully disrupt the PV???  Time will tell but this certainly needs to be monitored as it may contribute to an extended period of cold & wintry weather across the eastern CONUS.  My concerns are that the models are just going to deliver another "head fake" which has been the case over the last few weeks. The models have been pretty bad at predicting what to do with the Polar Vortex this whole season as it's been quite strong.  We'll just have to see how this all transpires down the road.  There is a voice in my head telling me..."Remember what happened down in Antarctica"....last winter down in the southern hemisphere, they had a rare and record setting SSW event that occurred late in their winter season.  Could this happen for our winter season???  We'll just have to wait and see.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here's an article that provides some insight to what happened during last year's rare SSW event in the southern hemisphere and also makes note of my comments about Feb ' 18.

 

 

 

A rare weather phenomenon for the southern hemisphere - Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) - is amassing in the polar stratosphere. This may lead to unusual or extreme weather in parts of the southern hemisphere (potentially New Zealand) during September and October 2019. SSWs are much more common in the northern hemisphere. You are probably familiar with a major northern hemisphere's SSW event of February 2018 - dubbed the 'Beast from the East' - and odds are you'll be seeing many international headlines with 'September to Remember' in the days and weeks ahead.

 

 

https://watchers.news/2019/08/22/southern-hemisphere-sudden-stratospheric-warming-2019/

 

[Tom]

@ Andie, I remember you posted an article about the depths of the western Pacific Ocean and the potential effects it may end up having for the PAC ocean in the near future.  Last year, we saw a brief spike in cooler sub surface temps but it faded away.  However, could the ongoing cooling of subsurface waters in the western PAC be a clue for a La Nina next year???  That is a vast amount of cooler waters that is growing.

 

 

 

[Clinton]

Clinton, you have a good chance w this one. Its a week away, but at least models are showing something meaningful for your area.

Ya buddy should have a shot at both of them.  Okwx2k4 should have a shot at this one.

[dubuque473]

Not liking being in the bullseye this far out.

[Stormhunter87]

That storm in Newfoundland is nuts. Man what experience that would be.

[Thunder98]

Weak to Moderate La Nina this coming Autumn?

 

[james1976]

GFS has a nice track for me next Friday. How are accumulations looking?

[Andie]

@ Andie, I remember you posted an article about the depths of the western Pacific Ocean and the potential effects it may end up having for the PAC ocean in the near future.  Last year, we saw a brief spike in cooler sub surface temps but it faded away.  However, could the ongoing cooling of subsurface waters in the western PAC be a clue for a La Nina next year???  That is a vast amount of cooler waters that is growing.

 

Oh I hope you're wrong. La Ninas are so hard on us in the south. I'll take Neutral over a Nina.

[Tom]

GFS has a nice track for me next Friday. How are accumulations looking?

 

12z GFS...

 

[james1976]

I have a feeling this is gonna go more south this time though

[Stacsh]

Models  differ greatly next week.  GFS phases, Euro Doesn't. 

[Hawkeye]

This morning's Euro pulls more moisture up here late next week.  It's weaker than the GFS, but the Euro is nearly all snow so I'd rather have that than all the rain the GFS is showing.

[james1976]

This morning's Euro pulls more moisture up here late next week. It's weaker than the GFS, but the Euro is nearly all snow so I'd rather have that than all the rain the GFS is showing.

That GFS map above has nice snowfall totals

[Niko]

Ok, so, on to the next snowstorm. Lets see what we have here. GFS gives me a nice 3-5inch snowfall. I am assuming w all of that snowcover on the ground, temps will be colder than what models are showing. Let the fun begin.....

[Hawkeye]

That GFS map above has nice snowfall totals

 

Except the GFS surges a bunch of rain up through the region before it changes to snow at the end.

[Niko]

That storm in Newfoundland is nuts. Man what experience that would be.

Tell me about it...now, that is a true blizzard. Dang........

[Tom]

Another Friday snowstorm in the cards???  

[Tom]

12z GEFS...starting to show more and more big hits across the Plains/MW/GL's...

 

[Niko]

Attm, cloudy w temps at 33F.

[Niko]

There is also another storm to watch a little down the road (Jan 31-Feb1) timeframe.

[CentralNebWeather]

This would be nice next week.

[snowstorm83]

0.5" of QPF at 35 degrees on the Euro. The winter that keeps on giving...

[Niko]

Winds are starting to pick up. Colder air rushing in now w possible squalls later tanite. Temp at 33F.

[Niko]

 

Clinton looks like he will get buried in the coming weeks.

[Niko]

St. Johns, Canada aftermath after a crippling blizzard rolled on thru........

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1218564148172394496

[Clinton]

 

Clinton looks like he will get buried in the coming weeks.

I think I'll get a good one before the month is over, maybe Friday.

[OmahaSnowFan]

How old is this map? Hour 384 isn’t Jan 31st. This has to be from a run from 3-4 days ago...

 

 

Clinton looks like he will get buried in the coming weeks.

[Niko]

How old is this map? Hour 384 isn’t Jan 31st. This has to be from a run from 3-4 days ago...

 

Yep...its an old one. I think its from last Wednesday, if my calculations are correctly.

 

I posted it to my friend Clinton to get him all ready and pumped for the snowstorms coming his way.

[Niko]

I think I'll get a good one before the month is over, maybe Friday.

Good luck w that storm next week amigo.

[westMJim]

Looks like there is about 3" of new snow tonight. The current temperature here is 24 with snow and some blowing snow.

[snowstorm83]

GFS looks meh for next week storm. Good track for Nebraska, but weak and unorganized.