Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[MossMan]

Sharing this for posterity.

And before MLK Day! That 10/-6 day would be lovely!

[Winterdog]

Operational is a bit of an outlier, in more ways than one.

 

We lost some ground in the long range. Not much indicating an arctic event. Better than jalapeño spam I guess.

[TT-SEA]

Tim is in rare form tonight.  

 

FYI - 850s have nothing to do with the sexy 500mb pattern the GFS has been showing. Which of course we know will not happen. 

 

 

Stop Andrew.   

 

Just because you think of something does not mean that is what I am thinking about.   You can say the same thing without making it personal... I would listen and be receptive.   

[Front Ranger]

Funny the operational is a warm outlier on the 10th though. 

 

Not the same model, so I'm not sure outlier is the correct term here.

 

Or do those graphs show the new GFS operationsl with the ensembles run from the old one?

[Kayla]

GEM is not on board.

 

I keep thinking about Mark's post on the GFS running too cold at the 850mb level in the mid and long range. Just seems like the GFS is always the coldest model after day 7 recently.

Are repeats some kind of new feature Fred coded in??

[jakerepp]

Sharing this for posterity.

Ya but what if this verified? How historic would a 10* high be? Once every 100 years?

[Cloud]

Sharing this for posterity.

That's cold enough to put your socks on!

[Lisa0527]

I'll only share it if you get more Canadians to post.

Ok...I’m posting.

we still have a foot of snow on the ground by the end of the run. Not 2 feet like the 18Z, but we’ll take it.

[TT-SEA]

Are repeats some kind of new feature Fred coded in??

 

 

I just can't remember a model situation like this in which one model was running so much colder than the other models so consistently.  

 

But maybe the compromise will just slowly happen over the next week.  

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM Day 5-10. Not there yet, but it's heading that way quickly at Day 10.

 

[seattleweatherguy]

Sharing this for posterity.

D**n

[Cloud]

I'm not so sure about that. When they were testing the FV3, the main bias I remember in comparison to the old GFS was it tended to overdo precip in some situations. Seems like if there was a cold bias it would have been noted and addressed.

They delayed the launch because the FV3 was a cold bias. I highly doubt they just sit on it without any fixing leading up to the delayed launch.

[Blizzard777]

Why can't people just focus on weather? All of the other stuff is annoying.

I can “like”  post again! 

 

lol, I was editing post to say Timmy Supercell has much work to do to get caught up and you already liked my post!    Your awesome !

[MossMan]

Fun fact - member 35 has been the most accurate one to day and all other members fall to it. This member shows not only no snow, but also limited precip and seasonable to mild temps. Maybe it is leading the way?

35 is nicknamed the Tim Member!

[TT-SEA]

I'm not so sure about that. When they were testing the FV3, the main bias I remember in comparison to the old GFS was it tended to overdo precip in some situations. Seems like if there was a cold bias it would have been noted and addressed.

 

 

Good to know.    

[Timmy Supercell]

Thank you Fred. Now if we could pls fix that pic posting bug on mobile.

 

I don't mind tilting my laptop to its side to see your pictures

[Kayla]

I just can't remember a model situation like this in which one model was running so much colder than the other models so consistently.

 

But maybe the compromise will just slowly happen over the next week.

The real good stuff still doesn’t arrive for 10+ days so massive model spread on surface or near surface details is still pretty pointless.

 

The upper level pattern looks great on all of the ensembles after day 9-10 so the setup is there for Arctic air. We’ll just have to wait and see how the surface details play out over the coming days.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not the same model, so I'm not sure outlier is the correct term here.

 

Or do those graphs show the new GFS operationsl with the ensembles run from the old one?

 

They do on the Wetterzentrale site. Looks like a lot of members go full arctic in the 13-15th range. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

 

[TT-SEA]

35 is nicknamed the Tim Member!

 

 

Side note... I told my wife and kids tonight that February was going to be repeated and we would be buried alive and frozen solid and there is no way that it will not happen at this point.    True story.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mean at PDX drops all the way to -6.6C at 04z on the 14th. 

[snow_wizard]

I'm pretty shocked at how consistent the GFS has been on the extreme blocking pattern.  I think the ECMWF will at least move toward it.  The 0z ensemble is the best yet with the mean bottoming out at -7.5 over SEA.

[Cloud]

Vancouver

 

Seattle

 

Portland

[snow_wizard]

Snow matix from the EPS for Vancouver

 

Do you have to pay for this graphic?

[TT-SEA]

The ECMWF almost has to start caving tonight.

[MossMan]

Side note... I told my wife and kids tonight that February was going to be repeated and we would be buried alive and frozen solid and there is no way that it will not happen at this point. True story.

Are you going to be unburying yourselves again to get to the airport?

[Omegaraptor]

C’MON! Columbia Basin Cold Pool!

[snow_wizard]

Operational is a bit of an outlier, in more ways than one. 

 

That doesn't look anything like the 850 graph I've seen.

[TT-SEA]

Vancouver

ens_image.png

 

Seattle

ens_image 1.png

 

Portland

ens_image 2.png

 

 

The chart Hawks posted only went out 10 days.   I was thinking it was 2 weeks.

[Cloud]

The chart Hawks posted only went out 10 days.   I was thinking it was 2 weeks.

No, ,the run just completed so it's up to 2 weeks now. 

[MossMan]

All the crap aside, I think maybe a forum get together is in order. I feel like we can all bond over some BBQ, beer, and refreshing the TropicalTidbits page over and over.

I still think we should all meet at Chris’s BBQ business when he gets the location!

[TT-SEA]

Are you going to be unburying yourselves again to get to the airport?

 

 

Depends on what we see coming as it gets closer... an impromptu trip might be in order.   

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Its interesting that tomorrow is equal to the coldest point in the ensemble mean 850mb temp line. So according to the ensemble mean... we are about to experience the coldest air in the next 2 weeks and it will be repeated several times.

That is assuming you live at the 850mb level. For those of us that don't, week 2 temps are a lot colder than tomorrow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am going back and reading the December 2013 thread. It seems like a lot of people were pretty disappointed around the 4th as the modified arctic air started filtering in and it became apparent the snow event on the 6th was going to go south. It seems like I was one of the only people pointing out the potential for cold lows in the S. Valley the coming weekend, and accurately predicting Sunday morning would be the coldest. Fun to walk back through a great event. 

[GHweatherChris]

All the crap aside, I think maybe a forum get together is in order. I feel like we can all bond over some BBQ, beer, and refreshing the TropicalTidbits page over and over.

I can cater the food part!! Someone else will have to do the beer part. I am not up to speed with millenial and boomer choices of beer.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interested to see what the CPC analogs are for the 00z GFS.

[snow_wizard]

The GEM appears to be in a good place at day 10 also.  At this point it looks like we may have it nailed down to somewhere in the 8 to 12 day period for the good stuff to begin.

[snow_wizard]

That is assuming you live at the 850mb level. For those of us that don't, week 2 temps are a lot colder than tomorrow.

 

He wasn't even correct about that anyway.  The mean drops to -7.5 later on.

[GHweatherChris]

8 to 12 day pattern may eventually end up in February, ****......

[Winterdog]

That doesn't look anything like the 850 graph I've seen.

It sure doesn’t. I fell into a deep depression when he posted that.