MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 4, 2020 Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 I'd like to just remind people again that when the models go to complete pig shitttt it is the perfect opportunity to dwell on how bad it is to be alive and is a perfect time to be a jerk to friends and family and even a stranger. Probably a good time to go outside and kill a bird or something and start to write out your will. 3 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted January 4, 2020 Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 Pivotal weather now has ECMWF skew-ts which is gonna be really nice for snow forecasting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 4, 2020 Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 Looking forward to waking up tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 4, 2020 Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 I feel terrible for TWL. Got buried this past Feb. There will be a good Jan event here one day. Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
runninthruda206 Posted January 4, 2020 Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 Looks like the euro keeps us cold saturday? Or am I reading it wrong haha edit: nvm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 4, 2020 Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 Looks like the euro keeps us cold saturday? Or am I reading it wrong haha Not really cold on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 4, 2020 Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 EURO looks a little better. Might be primed to drop that secondary low south like the GFS does. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 4, 2020 Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 Here we go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
runninthruda206 Posted January 4, 2020 Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 Not really cold on Saturday. Yup just figured out what I was actually looking at. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 4, 2020 Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 Not really cold on Saturday. Neither is the GFS anymore, we'll have to see if the EURO drops that secondary low down, which is what pulls the cold air in on the GFS. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 4, 2020 Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 Neither is the GFS anymore, we'll have to see if the EURO drops that secondary low down, which is what pulls the cold air in on the GFS. Yeah, I know. Looks very similar so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 4, 2020 Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 GFS is colder on day 8 though. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 4, 2020 Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 GFS is colder on day 8 though. When the models finally agree on the 500mb pattern... it will likely be pretty clear that the GFS is too aggressive with cold air past day 7. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 4, 2020 Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 Getting closer! 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 4, 2020 Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 And just like that the Euro looks better than the GFS! https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2020010412/ecmwf_z500a_us_10.pnghttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020010412/gfs_z500a_us_37.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 4, 2020 Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 Euro looks nice at day 9. Better ridge position and tilt. 1 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 4, 2020 Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 Euro looking good at hour 216. Pretty excited for the potential of this upcoming pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted January 4, 2020 Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 Nice to see the Euro looking like it will go places at hour 240 moved up to 200ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 4, 2020 Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 It is in this vein I sort of respect a poster like [NAME REDACTED] who has unwavering faith that an upcoming pattern will deliver, ignoring model signs to the contrary up until the point where it does't happen and they have a meltdown but at least they made a stand regarding a prediction. It's in stark contrast to posters like [NAMES REDACTED] that hyper-focus on (usually negative) very specific model run details only for those details to often change in the next few days or sometimes even hours later without any sense of the history of the amount of times this has burned them.You really see through some of the patterns here. Stick around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 4, 2020 Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 I think Tim is going to have some lowland snowfall within 10 days on the Euro to show us! A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 4, 2020 Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
runninthruda206 Posted January 4, 2020 Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 So did the cold air get pushed back again to monday instead of sat night/sun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 4, 2020 Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 Not a bad EURO run folks. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted January 4, 2020 Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 You really see through some of the patterns here. Stick around. I mean I was here for a long time at least as early as the Feb 2014 event, before the site migration as well. Don't remember the exact time. I just didn't really post until learning how to read the models decently enough. And for all the absurdity of this forum it is a tremendous learning environment for which I am grateful to even the impossibly difficult posters. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 4, 2020 Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 12Z ECMWF shows a robust storm rolling though late Sunday into Monday morning. Its primarily rain for the lowlands... but it shows some snow around Bellingham. On Monday morning it shows strong SW winds in the Seattle area... but light winds up north. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 4, 2020 Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 I like the Tidbits color scheme better than Pivotal... Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 4, 2020 Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 12Z ECMWF shows a robust storm rolling though late Sunday into Monday morning. Its primarily rain for the lowlands... but it shows some snow around Bellingham. On Monday morning it shows strong SW winds in the Seattle area... but light winds up north. Makes sense. It is a chilly pattern though. I think a January 2002/08 blend is the most likely scenario through day 10. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 4, 2020 Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 Total snow per the 12Z ECMWF. Some of the light stuff in the lowlands comes at various times during the week and is probably just some flakes in the air at times... the stuff in Whatcom and Snohomish Counties is primarily on Sunday night into Monday morning. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 4, 2020 Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 I mean I was here for a long time at least as early as the Feb 2014 event, before the site migration as well. Don't remember the exact time. I just didn't really post until learning how to read the models decently enough. And for all the absurdity of this forum it is a tremendous learning environment for which I am grateful to even the impossibly difficult posters.It definitely is. There is a lot of collective knowledge here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 4, 2020 Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 ECMWF shows highs in the low to mid 40s for the Seattle on Monday... and its still above freezing on Tuesday morning from Seattle southward. Here are surface temps on the morning of day 10: Precip has moved south into Oregon at that time and its clearing in WA. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 4, 2020 Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 Nice steps taken by the euro. Getting closer and closer to locking this pattern in. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 4, 2020 Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 ECMWF shows highs in the low to mid 40s for the Seattle on Monday... and its still above freezing on Tuesday morning from Seattle southward. Here are surface temps on the morning of day 10: Precip has moved south into Oregon at that time and its clearing in WA. Probably snowing up here, with positive splat tests for valley locations. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 4, 2020 Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 Here is a PNW closeup of total snow for the ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
runninthruda206 Posted January 4, 2020 Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 looks like seattle may not get much if at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 4, 2020 Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 Good runs so far today. Despite Tim constantly pulling back the reins on my enthusiasm I am looking forward to a much colder pattern. Could be mediocre or could be historic but it will be interesting for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 4, 2020 Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 Right now I still think 2002, 2008 are the best primary analogs for the upcoming pattern with 2012 and 2007 secondary analogs and maybe best case type scenarios. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted January 4, 2020 Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 Lots of potential starting next weekend. If we can get one of those shortwaves dropping down to phase we’ll be in business. That’s the main difference between the earlier GFS runs and the current ones. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 4, 2020 Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 Pivotal weather now has ECMWF skew-ts which is gonna be really nice for snow forecasting. Awesome find. Really cool that Pivotal is able to offer all this euro data for free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 4, 2020 Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 EPS looking good so far. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted January 4, 2020 Report Share Posted January 4, 2020 Important to note I think that surface level stuff will probably change even if it doesn't look great right now. Even if we get busted by this onshore flow, the set-up is still there at the end of the Euro and persists basically the entirety of every GFS run.We should get a lot of bites at the apple. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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