Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Wow, Tim can turn a romantic night with the wife into doldrums on here just like that. Must not have been a good date night....

It was great!

[GHweatherChris]

It was great!

My point stands.

[TT-SEA]

Also worth noting that the EPS continues to weaken the anomaly signals later in the run like previous runs. In 2 weeks... it shows the cold more spread out and the block weakening. That is something it did not really do in February. It locked in and never changed. There is some variability already showing up this time.

 

[snow_wizard]

Jan 1969 is an interesting case study when looking at 500mb patterns and what the resultant lowland weather is.  The 10th through 19th had a pattern that brought wet snow like what the ECMWF is showing in the 8 to 10 day period, and the 20th through 30th had very cold weather and lots of dry snow.  The maps below are from those two periods and clearly show how different the 500mb pattern were.  To me the day 9 and 10 ECMWF look much more like the cold map than the milder one.

 

 

[GHweatherChris]

Consistency?

[Deweydog]

Consistency?

In terrain? Kind of an oxymoron...

[ewnichols25]

 

GFS shows freezing temperatures extending well offshore in BC and Southeast Alaska with all of that frigid air spilling out over the ocean. I can see freezing spray becoming an issue along the Inside Passage shipping routes and even in Puget Sound with the colder GFS solutions. Something to watch for especially after the sinking of the crab boat in AK last week.

[GHweatherChris]

In terrain? Kind of an oxymoron...

Huh?

[luvssnow_spokane]

gfs.PNG

 

GFS shows freezing temperatures extending well offshore in BC and Southeast Alaska with all of that frigid air spilling out over the ocean. I can see freezing spray becoming an issue along the Inside Passage shipping routes and even in Puget Sound with the colder GFS solutions. Something to watch for especially after the sinking of the crab boat in AK last week.

 

Looks like a picked a bad week to go parasailing..    

[TT-SEA]

Consistency?

 

 

Sort of... it can consistently show the pattern changing or evolving.    That still counts as consistency.

 

The coldest period on the EPS is around 1/13-17.    Now that even farther out is coming into view... it has been showing moderation after the 17th.   We will see if it holds.

[GHweatherChris]

Sort of... it can consistently show the pattern changing or evolving. That still counts as consistency.

 

The coldest period on the EPS is around 1/13-17. Now that farther out is coming into view... it has been showing moderation after the 17th.

Huh?

[TT-SEA]

EPS clearly shows an eastward shift at the 500mb level later in the run... this might not end up being like last February in terms of duration.   Although I do remember a couple false warm-ups on the EPS last February now that I think about it more.

 

[Deweydog]

Definitely a good idea to iron out the end of a pattern that’s still over a week away.

[GHweatherChris]

Definitely a good idea to iron out the end of a pattern that’s still over a week away.

Date night was not as good as said.

[TT-SEA]

Definitely a good idea to iron out the end of a pattern that’s still over a week away.

 

 

Definitely!

 

It does feel like the GFS has suddenly become the wildly inconsistent one... and the EPS is back to being a more steady guide.   But who knows at this point.   The 00Z GFS was complete insanity.    The EPS looks like its previous runs.

[AbbyJr]

EPS clearly shows an eastward shift at the 500mb level later in the run... this might not end up being like last February in terms of duration.   Although I do remember a couple false warm-ups on the EPS last February now that I think about it more.

 

That doesn't matter. Its 300+ hours away. Resolution decreases once you get to the 300+ hour window so I wouldn't buy into what its showing at 360 hours haha.

[ShawniganLake]

Jan 1969 is an interesting case study when looking at 500mb patterns and what the resultant lowland weather is. The 10th through 19th had a pattern that brought wet snow like what the ECMWF is showing in the 8 to 10 day period, and the 20th through 30th had very cold weather and lots of dry snow. The maps below are from those two periods and clearly show how different the 500mb pattern were. To me the day 9 and 10 ECMWF look much more like the cold map than the milder one.

Fun fact. Shawnigan lake had 14 consecutive day’s and 21 of the last 24 days see measurable snowfall in January 69

[AbbyJr]

My point stands.

This year its the GFS locking into the cold pattern.

[TT-SEA]

That doesn't matter. Its 300+ hours away. Resolution decreases once you get to the 300+ hour window so I wouldn't buy into what its showing at 360 hours haha.

 

 

Not always... it locked in on the cold period coming up as soon as it came into view at 15 days out and has not really wavered much in terms of strength or configuration.     It just "pulsates" as Dewey mentioned.     

[Phil]

Also worth noting that the EPS continues to weaken the anomaly signals later in the run like previous runs. In 2 weeks... it shows the cold more spread out and the block weakening. That is something it did not really do in February. It locked in and never changed. There is some variability already showing up this time.

 

You’ve been a d*ckwad lately.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Fun fact. Shawnigan lake had 14 consecutive day’s and 21 of the last 24 days see measurable snowfall in January 69

 

EUG had 3 ft in a 72 hr period from the 25-28.  Would have put this Feb's event to shame.

[Perturbed Member]

Too early to be declaring any winners but the GFS has clearly been in the lead with its excellent consistency and the prediction of the increasing heights over Alaska. The Euro is entirely on board now at least at the 500mb level. The surface level stuff isn't impressive on the euro, but I think that will eventually come around. Cold air is up there and the 500mb pattern is approaching textbook stuff for cold and snow here. That cold air doesn't have anywhere else it can really go. 

 

The GFS is going way overboard with all the low level cold and snow but I feel pretty good for prolonged chances for significant lowland cold/snow. I'm just not expecting widespread 12-24 inches of snow from Bellingham to Redding like the 00z GFS.

[TT-SEA]

You’ve been a d*ckwad lately.

 

 

You have not even been here.   Don't start with the personal crap again.   

[TT-SEA]

Too early to be declaring any winners but the GFS has clearly been in the lead with its excellent consistency and the prediction of the increasing heights over Alaska. The Euro is entirely on board now at least at the 500mb level. The surface level stuff isn't impressive on the euro, but I think that will eventually come around. Cold air is up there and the 500mb pattern is approaching textbook stuff for cold and snow here. That cold air doesn't have anywhere else it can really go. 

 

The GFS is going way overboard with all the low level cold and snow but I feel pretty good for prolonged chances for significant lowland cold/snow. I'm just not expecting widespread 12-24 inches of snow from Bellingham to Redding like the 00z GFS.

 

Most people on here are going to see accumulating snow in the next couple weeks at some point.    Its almost guaranteed given the pattern.   

[Requiem]

Too early to be declaring any winners but the GFS has clearly been in the lead with its excellent consistency and the prediction of the increasing heights over Alaska. The Euro is entirely on board now at least at the 500mb level. The surface level stuff isn't impressive on the euro, but I think that will eventually come around. Cold air is up there and the 500mb pattern is approaching textbook stuff for cold and snow here. That cold air doesn't have anywhere else it can really go. 

 

The GFS is going way overboard with all the low level cold and snow but I feel pretty good for prolonged chances for significant lowland cold/snow. I'm just not expecting widespread 12-24 inches of snow from Bellingham to Redding like the 00z GFS.

 

And not to overstate things, but the models intensifying an offshore winds scenario is a good trend for PDX-south.

[Deweydog]

Has PDX been below 40 this decade?

[Gradient Keeper]

The 500mb pattern on the EURO improved dramatically and did so at Day 6-7. Should we continue this for two more days that moves timing up to Day 5 where the block is ready to deliver arctic air by Day 7. With 500mb heights increasing to 550dm over Anchorage that is a great indicator of an arctic pattern. Let's just keep this going.

 

6z GFS in 1 hours 2 minutes

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The 500mb pattern on the EURO improved dramatically and did so at Day 6-7. Should we continue this for two more days that moves timing up to Day 5 where the block is ready to deliver arctic air by Day 7. With 500mb heights increasing to 550dm over Anchorage that is a great indicator of an arctic pattern. Let's just keep this going.

 

6z GFS in 1 hours 2 minutes

 

Night shift?

[Requiem]

Night shift?

 

Can I join in today? I've got some AP stuff I have to finish anyways so I'll be up for a while....

[TT-SEA]

Can I join in today? I've got some AP stuff I have to finish anyways so I'll be up for a while....

 

No invitation necessary!

[Gradient Keeper]

Night shift?

Yeah. Here lately with my knee I have to take an Oxy to have any hope of sleeping and then I'm in bed knocked out most the day then it wears off and not able to get out of bed until late afternoon, so I'm up a lot now 1-3 AM. I don't want to be necessarily, but can't control that. C'MON!!!!

[ShawniganLake]

Yeah. Here lately with my knee I have to take an Oxy to have any hope of sleeping and then I'm in bed knocked out most the day then it wears off and not able to get out of bed until late afternoon, so I'm up a lot now 1-3 AM. I don't want to be necessarily, but can't control that. C'MON!!!!

Dude. What is wrong with your knee. Sounds like it’s ruining your life. Can you get a replacement?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Yeah. Here lately with my knee I have to take an Oxy to have any hope of sleeping and then I'm in bed knocked out most the day then it wears off and not able to get out of bed until late afternoon, so I'm up a lot now 1-3 AM. I don't want to be necessarily, but can't control that. C'MON!!!!

 

Hope it keeps healing well! My brain surgery went smooth but my head still hurts sometimes so I'm thinking good thoughts for you.

[seattleweatherguy]

Hope it keeps healing well! My brain surgery went smooth but my head still hurts sometimes so I'm thinking good thoughts for you.

Praying for you and dj

[GHweatherChris]

This year its the GFS locking into the cold pattern.

Very debatable.

[Cloud]

Dude. What is wrong with your knee. Sounds like it’s ruining your life. Can you get a replacement?

My mom recently had total knee replacement couple weeks ago and in the process of recovering. Even so, it seems like she is so much better than before. It’s probably worth it.

[TT-SEA]

My mom recently had total knee replacement couple weeks ago and in the process of recovering. Even so, it seems like she is so much better than before. It’s probably worth it.

My mom went through that same thing 4 years ago and she is doing great. So much better now.

[Meatyorologist]

I wish Google maps had a county lines layer.

I totally agree! At least add an option to enable it.

[runninthruda206]

Wow my mom had a partial knee replacement right before thanksgiving. Crazy coincidence

[Jesse]

We’ve lost the EPS.