snow_wizard Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 00z EPS 850 mean anywhere from 2-5 degrees colder than 12z by Sunday night. The GFS outperformed the EPS on this....assuming it verifies. WTF? 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 WRF for fun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Meanwhile Alaska isn't exactly roasting while we're experience our coldest conditons. The PV seems to be in the driver's seat with this upcoming event, doesn't happen often: The PV is why the low level cold is going to be so intense. We could see this trend even colder as incredible as that sounds. 6 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 The WRF is the coldest I've ever seen, with widespread 0 to 4F lows for the Puget Sound region on Wednesday. It also shows a nice snow on Sunday. I was going to post pics, but that site doesn't allow you to easily save them. Those 925mb temperatures: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Currently pouring and 40 degrees. .43” on the day. Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 We could see some serious freezing spray issues in many areas. Powerful offshore winds combined with very cold temperatures could pose a problem... 2 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 I'm exhausted. I might be up later to check the 6z.... If not I will see you all for 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Geez though, does W7ENK from the Fox12 place post on here? In terms of pessimism he makes the most pessimistic person here look like SnowWiz.LMAO, that Ziggy guy too who is so convinced that it will only snow in the foothills and up that he would probably bet his house on it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 The GFS outperformed the EPS on this....assuming it verifies. WTF? GFS is the clear winner. The EPS painted a broad brush and showed a very strong and consistent cold signal for next week... which was correct but its finally catching up to the intensity of it. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Still 48 at PDX. Freezing spray not quite yet an issue. 2 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Last time I saw W7ENK was about 3 years ago now. He came over for my buddies birthday party and fired his guns and shot off some flares at 2am. 2 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weiner Warrior Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Better than a burning spray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 I'm exhausted. I might be up later to check the 6z.... If not I will see you all for 12z. Fuckk you! When I get up at 6 I better see where you posted updates on the 06z. Lol 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 LMAO, that Ziggy guy too who is so convinced that it will only snow in the foothills and up that he would probably bet his house on it. Ziggy is a recurring troll, to my belief. That's another reason why I barely post there anymore-- so many trolls. 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Fuckk you! When I get up at 6 I better see where you posted updates on the 06z. LolMight be a change of plans.... I cannot bend my knee or walk worth a crap.... Which means I sleep off/on on the couch next to my laptop. I dunno...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 0.61" of rain in the bucket today. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 The EPS does a little better job of holding onto the cold longer than the 12z. Nice step in the right direction on that. It keeps heights up over AK for a longer time. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Soooo. Looks like fun times coming! 3 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 The EPS does a little better job of holding onto the cold longer than the 12z. Nice step in the right direction on that. It keeps heights up over AK for a longer time.Yeah... trying to stay up for it and it's definitely slower to eradicate the cold. Still goes zonal in the 10-15 day period though. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 The AO index continues to be very positive going into this oncoming blast, proof we don't necessarily need tanking AO to get a blast in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 One more note... the control run decided it better get on board tonight as well. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 EPS low locations for mid-week storm. Besides the northern fringe, most of these would be nice for WA. Looks like most of these head somewhere on either side of the Columbia in the next few frames. The GEFS is also further north than the OP which is encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnarkyGoblin Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 For those interested in what Cliff Mass has to say: https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/ Still being pretty conservative and essentially ignoring the crazy long-range GFS models we've seen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 EPS low locations for mid-week storm. Besides the northern fringe, most of these would be nice for WA. Looks like most of these head somewhere on either side of the Columbia in the next few frames. The majority of those would work for both OR and WA, at least for producing a few inches I think. Hopefully those far north ones don't happen. That cluster that goes close to the Oregon coast would absolutely bury PDX of course. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Raining and accumulating here. 2 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Sunday’s 18z GFS in 109 hours and 31 minutes. 2 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 A few interesting tidbits. 1. The last time SEA had a high of 25 in January was 1982 and the last sub 25 was in 1969. 2. The EPS control was the first model to really pick up on the Alberta PV so that model does have some value. 3. The EPS control shows another sub 520 ULL over WA on day 9. 4 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 What did I miss? 2 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 What did I miss?ECMWF is good now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 What did I miss? A lot. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 What did I miss?Cold. 3 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 For those interested in what Cliff Mass has to say: https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/ Still being pretty conservative and essentially ignoring the crazy long-range GFS models we've seen. I can see being conservative about snowfall for now, but the cold looks pretty well set and maybe historic. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 8 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Wow things really could not have gone much better with the models tonight. 2 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 A few interesting tidbits. 1. The last time SEA had a high of 25 in January was 1982 and the last sub 25 was in 1969. 2. The EPS control was the first model to really pick up on the Alberta PV so that model does have some value. 3. The EPS control shows another sub 520 ULL over WA on day 9.That is first stat is amazing... did not realize it had been so long. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 I can see being conservative about snowfall for now, but the cold looks pretty well set and maybe historic. when would be the last year cold of this magnitude came to Western Washington? Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 What did I miss?Tim freaked out. In a good snow loving way. 3 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 I can see being conservative about snowfall for now, but the cold looks pretty well set and maybe historic.Historic would have to beat 1949/1950 and the all time record low of 0! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 That is first stat is amazing... did not realize it had been so long.Yeah, that one sticks out although off the top of my head PDX only has two since then. Both during strong lower-level outflow setups. My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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