Skagit Weather Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Interesting, a new convergence zone/string of showers is now forming just to my north and west. I wonder if it will make it down here considering we just dropped below freezing. Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 I wish people would stop using the GFS for anything more than 72 hours out. We just use it to speculate. It clued us in to the current WA cold snap well ahead of time. What fun is it to not look ahead? 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Snowfall... 4 p.m. Friday through 4 p.m. Saturday. Looks like about 2-8 inches depending how far west out here. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 12 degrees and a star filled night here with deep snow all around. Can’t beat that. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 The ECMWF has moved up the timing of the best dynamics tonight for this area which means we're not going to get as much time to cool or possibly see some clearing to freeze things up. Not a good thing for those of us who want to see some sticking snow. If we can get some decent precip intensity it could still work. Currently 34 here.Temp will fall like a rock under a shower. Went from 36 to 31 late afternoon here under a shower. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 12 degrees and a star filled night here with deep snow all around. Can’t beat that.Love the stars at my cabin on a night like that. Glad you are having a good time man. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 I have been thinking a lot about the current pattern and the fairly disappointing snowfall from Seattle to Olympia and I clearly remember past similar cases where the Arctic front stalled mostly over the North Interior and we had similar disappointing outcomes. If the Arctic front had settled in 50 miles further south it would have suppressed the track of the Tuesday night low in particular and we would have done much better. The one time the Arctic front did sag south of Seattle we did OK Monday night. We invariably end up with the problem of the Olympics blocking the moisture when the Arctic front stalls over Snohomish County like it did this time. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 We just use it to speculate. It clued us in to the current WA cold snap well ahead of time. What fun is it to not look ahead?It did a pretty good job latching onto the pattern more than 2 weeks out. I think I'm pretty happy with that for lookin at potential. However, within 7 days, it's bad, within 3-5 days, it's absolute in term of details. This is where the ECMWF will always be the preferred model. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Ooh, NWS just highlighted the possibility of dense freezing fog in the valley. I could see the commute being icy in spots with showers possibly coming in. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Has anyone else been having problems with the Nexrad rain / snow feature not being accurate? According to that pretty much everything has been rain all week. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Temp will fall like a rock under a shower. Went from 36 to 31 late afternoon here under a showerLooks like you have another decent snow shower headed your way in the next hour or so. May even hit the North Seattle area if it holds together for a couple more hours. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 It did a pretty good job latching onto the pattern more than 2 weeks out. I think I'm pretty happy with that for lookin at potential. However, within 7 days, it's bad, within 3-5 days, it's absolute s**t in term of details. This is where the ECMWF will always be the preferred model. I came to the same conclusion this week. Sometimes the GFS is better than the ECMWF for big picture stuff in the longer range, but the ECMWF is far superior in the near term with fine details. The GFS does have it's place and it's moments for sure. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Looks like you have another decent snow shower headed your way in the next hour or so. May even hit the North Seattle area if it holds together for a couple more hours.My eyes are peeled on it. It might hit me. The showers always seem to pull off the the SE though. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 At this point it appears the East is going to have a super warm Janaury. The torch is shown to mostly continue back there. Probably good for us as far as getting another chance. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Temp up to 37 at SEA. That precip out here is not producing much so far. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 EPS ALERT Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 At this point it appears the East is going to have a super warm Janaury. The torch is shown to mostly continue back there. Probably good for us as far as getting another chance.Us too, but not as ridiculous as what the East Coast is getting. Looking like a warm Jan for most of the CONUS. If the forecast means anything Oregon is going to get those strong positive departures right back, not that they ever went away. Good chance it ends up as a big torch, and considering it’s January I’m really not surprised. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Shelton light snow and 28. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 33F and foggy. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Deweydog Posted January 17, 2020 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Us too. Looking like a warm Jan for most of the CONUS. If the forecast means anything Oregon is going to get those strong positive departures right back, not that they ever went away.I’m making T-shirts that say “I went to PDX during the -12 PNA and all I got was one sub-40 high and this t-shirt.” 11 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 WWA extended to the North Oregon Coast and Coast Range. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 A dusting seems quite possible 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 A dusting seems quite possible Definitely has the chance to be kinda bad for the commute in the hills at least, with dense freezing fog, snow showers, and black ice. 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 WWA just expanded to Central and Northern Willamette Valley, Clark County, and the Cascade Foothills. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 WWA just expanded to Central and Northern Willamette Valley, Clark County, and the Cascade Foothills.Portland NWS must need some attention. Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Radar looks pretty lackluster Quote (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 The EPS is already showing signs of going into what I like to call the stair step look by late in the month. Looks promising, but this is very preliminary of course. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 The EPS mean also shows AK getting very cold again like the operational GFS. Pretty big model changes taking place for week two in a very short time. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 I came to the same conclusion this week. Sometimes the GFS is better than the ECMWF for big picture stuff in the longer range, but the ECMWF is far superior in the near term with fine details. The GFS does have it's place and it's moments for sure.With all the upgrades and everything, it’s still a very respectable model. Outside of 10 days, many of us, myself included was touting it for its consistency and timing in the runs. In the mid-range, the Euro is still far superior. Overall, I think the GFS still needs work, especially in the mid-range. I don’t think it failed to advertised the cold (look at northern interior) despite some skepticism, it failed to get the details in place. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Down to 35, actually a pretty chilly night.Too bad all the snow that fell have all melted off. Looking forward to next cold shot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 With all the upgrades and everything, it’s still a very respectable model. Outside of 10 days, many of us, myself included was touting it for its consistency and timing in the runs. In the mid-range, the Euro is still far superior. Overall, I think the GFS still needs work, especially in the mid-range. I don’t think it failed to advertised the cold (look at northern interior) despite some skepticism, it failed to get the details in place. Yeah....there is no way to deny the basic pattern that was being advertised verified. Highs in the mid teens in Whatcom County is legit cold. As always the devil was in the details. When we look for cold spells way out in time we are just looking for big picture stuff. The GFS has been decent at that this season. Totally unrelated, but one thought I just had is this cold snap was focused a tad too far north, and the last one was too far south. Maybe the next one (if it happens) will be just right. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Some light precip moving up the valley now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Why do I torture myself? Rain here. It even failed the splat test. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 PDX NWS Rationale behind Winter Weather Advisories is based on satellite/radar trends suggesting a cluster of snow showers with tops as highas 15-20kft, plenty deep/strong enough to make it across the CoastRange. Also, fog in place will assist precip reaching the ground dueto seeder-feeder processes. Valley floor north of Albany will likelysee a dusting to a half inch, with spotty accumulations up to 1 inchin heavier showers. Temperatures have been below freezing forseveral hours now across much of this area, so snow will probablyaccumulate immediately after beginning, even on untreated roads.This event is very likely to impact the Friday morning commute withsnowy or icy roads, especially in outlying and untreated areas.~Weagle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Don’t look now, but there is a light snow band coming at Portland! 33 degrees here. I see snow flying in some of the Salem cams right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JeremyVoidMain Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 some 2AM snow in Bellingham tonight! (Meridian neighborhood) https://i.imgur.com/EQD1g48.mp4 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Almost to PDX 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Snowing on cams in McMinnville. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 It is sticking down there to the lowest elevations 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Looks like I'm going to be wrong. Still doesn't make up for 2 years of epic failures for the models. Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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