Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[Jesse]

Certainly was significantly better for the mountains, but there wasn't anything remotely consequential here locally in the valley pit of despair.

 

No significant storms, snow, and until last night not even a single freeze. Hard not to feel like we just entirely wasted what was probably our only real window for fun this winter.

I get it. I guess my expectations were never very high in the first place. I was honestly sort of expecting a chillyish dullsville January alá 2013. What we have seen the first half so far has been a lot more interesting than that IMO. At least regionally.

[HighlandExperience]

 

Regardless of the differing snow totals, I think we can all agree the GFS did horribly for temps.

 

 

Juuuuuust a bit outside....

 

GFS ended up only being off by 31° for Seattle's morning low temp today ������ Predicted 6 for today from last Thursday's run. It was 37. pic.twitter.com/6DpwGQeDb1— Scott Sistek (@ScottSKOMO) January 15, 2020

Wow I have no faith in that model.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It is flurrying here in Salem. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

20 miles West of Salem. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like this band of moisture could spread some snow up the valley. Warming south winds behind it though. Still 30 at SLE, but 37 at Eugene. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Definitely was hoping we would do better in Tacoma with this cold snap. However..we got 1.5" of snow which is better than many winters...maybe a bit more today. Still out here in port orchard today and tomorrow we will see if it gets interesting here.

[Omegaraptor]

Seems we’ve been in a fairly active pattern with a ton of mountain snow since the new year. That’s a pattern you are always complaining about not seeing and now that we’ve had one it’s as if it didn’t even happen.

It was really an epic storm on Mt Hood. Skiing is great right now. But Portland got screwed yet again and now the GFS is forecasting split flow which is concerning considering how long split flow tends to last.

[TacomaWaWx]

Coldest day we managed in Tacoma was a 35/28 day yesterday. Should end up being 4 sub 40 days in a row. Overall not terrible. Going to be out on the peninsula again this weekend to see if more snow falls to make me feel better about Tacoma missing out.

[BLI snowman]

I get it. I guess my expectations were never very high in the first place. I was honestly sort of expecting a chillyish dullsville January alá 2013. What we have seen the first half so far has been better than that IMO. At least regionally.

 

Locally it's been a mildish sort of dullsville. If we're just talking Portland area weather it's certainly been a stretch to forget.  We're running +4 to +5 anomalies this month and tracking just about average for precip with a much drier stretch upcoming.

 

Can't lower our standards too much, even here.

[Perturbed Member]

Should at least see some brief snow with this little band before the south wind of death surges. Enough for a dusting maybe.

[Blizzard777]

Powerful looking! 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

20 miles West of Salem. 

 

 

Ah good ol' Butcher Hill.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I cannot believe someone who says they like cold weather thinks this January has been better regionally than January 2013. 

[Esquimalt]

I cannot believe someone who says they like cold weather thinks this January has been better regionally than January 2013. 

It has been here.  Got a total of 17 inches for this whole event.  

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF snow through 9 p.m.

 

I have not been tracking this for Portland... but this definitely shows snow down there in the next 12 hours.

 

[GHweatherChris]

12Z ECMWF snow through 9 p.m.

 

I have not been tracking this for Portland... but this definitely shows snow down there in the next 12 hours.

 

I think 1 to 3 inches of snow is likely here.

[TacomaWaWx]

This winter could definitely have been a lot worse is all I've gotta say. Was significantly wetter and lots of mountain snow the last month. Overall Seattle did better than Portland in terms of snowfall and rainfall it seems. Still 1/2 of January and February to go though. If we are throwing around January 2005 and 2011 as analogs for this bust...I'd be quick to remind everyone that the following Februaries BOTH featured snowfall here after massive rug pulls those years. There's still February!

[MossMan]

12Z ECMWF snow through 9 p.m.

 

I have not been tracking this for Portland... but this definitely shows snow down there in the next 12 hours.

 

So almost another inch today it looks like.

[FroYoBro]

Models want to hang onto that cold air in Clark County. You guys might get some slop on the ground!

[MR. HEATMISER]

12Z ECMWF snow through 9 p.m.

 

I have not been tracking this for Portland... but this definitely shows snow down there in the next 12 hours.

 

 

Looks like more blue and purple lies!

[TT-SEA]

So almost another inch today it looks like.

 

Remember... the ECMWF does not consider the 'Randy Factor' so you can probably multiply that total by 3 or 4.  

[Jesse]

I cannot believe someone who says they like cold weather thinks this January has been better regionally than January 2013.

The mountain snow has made it worth it. We were due.

[BLI snowman]

Should at least see some brief snow with this little band before the south wind of death surges. Enough for a dusting maybe.

 

 

Yeah, probably a one shot deal here for anything.

 

I'm basically looking ahead to Thursday night at this point, which seems to be our last little glimmer of opportunity for something if we can get some precip.

[Perturbed Member]

12Z ECMWF snow through 9 p.m.

 

I have not been tracking this for Portland... but this definitely shows snow down there in the next 12 hours.

 

 

Clark county has consistently looked relatively decent for this. Washington county isn't horrible either, maybe a trace in areas further west. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Powerful looking!

 

There might be places surprised with snow. That storm is pulling in some seriously cold air.

[Thurston Howell III]

Definitely was hoping we would do better in Tacoma with this cold snap. However..we got 1.5" of snow which is better than many winters...maybe a bit more today. Still out here in port orchard today and tomorrow we will see if it gets interesting here.

Depends on what part of Port Orchard.  West side usually gets a lot more snow.  

[Skagit Weather]

You were due for a good event. I remember you being just too far south for a majority of the action the past few years I've lived here in Glenhaven. This will be my last winter here because I'm forced to sell, and I'll miss it. Fücking ex wives I tell ya

 

Yeah it's been a hard couple of years for snow here. I mean last year wasn't too bad, but it was a shame to miss out on higher totals of snow during such a historic year. And then you have to go back to 2011 and then 2008 to have a respectable year out here, or even a single storm snowfall greater than 3".

 

I just hope I don't have to wait another 9 years before this happens again, but thrilled with what looked like it could be a nonevent just a few days ago.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

ECMWF looks to light on precip but it also showed me getting 1 inch of snow yesterday and I got 4. Did pretty good in the straight but still off by a bunch.

[GHweatherChris]

ECMWF looks to light on precip but it also showed me getting 1 inch of snow yesterday and I got 4. Did pretty good in the straight but still off by a bunch.

I am hoping the Chehalis Gap works its magic.

[HighlandExperience]

ECMWF looks to light on precip but it also showed me getting 1 inch of snow yesterday and I got 4. Did pretty good in the straight but still off by a bunch.

You live in an area capable of surprises.

[TT-SEA]

So the ECMWF also shows some above-freezing type snow around western WA for the next 3 mornings.    

 

Including a decent amount in what appears to be a c-zone for Randy on Friday morning...

 

[Jesse]

It was really an epic storm on Mt Hood. Skiing is great right now. But Portland got screwed yet again and now the GFS is forecasting split flow which is concerning considering how long split flow tends to last.

Seems like just a few days ago you were talking about how all long term snowpack fears had been assuaged.

[jakerepp]

So the ECMWF also shows some above-freezing type snow around western WA for the next 3 mornings.    

 

Including a decent amount in what appears to be a c-zone for Randy on Friday morning....

 

Alright, I've had about enough of Randy's shenanigans. 

Did you sell your soul to the snow devil or something?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

12z Euro shows some snow over the EPSL Thursday evening/night.

 

can you post this same map just showing precip not snow please.

[TT-SEA]

12z Euro shows some snow over the EPSL Thursday evening/night.

 

 

 

I don't think I would be using the Kuchera model when there is chilly onshore flow.   This is not going to be dry snow.  

[Jesse]

One thing to keep in mind is that if we enter a chillyish and drier pattern as some models are depicting monthly averages will continue to drop.

[MossMan]

12z Euro shows some snow over the EPSL Thursday evening/night.

 

I might not be quite done with the snow! I’m in the blue!

[TT-SEA]

can you post this same map just showing precip not snow please.

 

 

Here is Thursday night into Friday morning... good call on using the precip map.

 

[chinook]

flurry action in mcminnville.  coating on the surfaces.  31F

[TT-SEA]

We really don't warm up enough to end the lowland snow threat until Saturday morning.   

 

ECMWF is showing low 50s by Sunday though.