Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[TT-SEA]

wind shift at seatac and back to 32 degrees.

 

The low will not be above freezing!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Still 24F here, EC says we warm to 39F with mix rain/snow by noon. Looks like we picked up a few more inches of snow since 1am last night, over a foot of powdery snow on the ground in places that weren't previously cleared.

 

[Art_Digbee]

I would estimate roughly 4" of new snow on average on the northwestern side of Orcas. Like Chewy I have a lot of drifts so it varies.

[seattleweatherguy]

Rain or snow today? Bothell seems to warm up at night so it may be snow all day

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I see it is currently -47 in Prince George. Looks like that is about 58 degrees below average. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

How much snow did you get in the hills last night? Bet it’s more than the 5“ I got down here in the flats.

Just talked to my boss who lives up on the Yew St. Hill and he got at least 8”

[Esquimalt]

Still 24F here, EC says we warm to 39F with mix rain/snow by noon. Looks like we picked up a few more inches of snow since 1am last night, over a foot of powdery snow on the ground in places that weren't previously cleared.

 

What is your storm total do you think? 

[SouthHillFrosty]

How much does port angles average per year for snow?

[Omegaraptor]

You don't see this often.  Bay area and Seattle temps very similar.  Sad.

 

It's not that rare with the right atmospheric pattern. In fact, it's normal to have a couple days a year where Portland is warmer than Phoenix. Remember last spring when we had that Rex Block?

[jakerepp]

How much does port angles average per year for snow?

According to Wikipedia.....4.1 inches.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Tim should move to Sequim. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

What is your storm total do you think? 

 

My best guess would be 12~13", I'll have to head out and check but we have a 1.5ft wall in the back that's completely hidden under snow now that wasn't during the big snowfall here last February.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

According to Wikipedia.....4.1 inches.

 

Seems like they get nailed every few years though. Snowfall averages at most stations are built on extremely spotty data. The station near me averages about 15" a year, and in the 9 years I have lived here I'm averaging over 35" a year, and its not like the past decade has been very snowy. 

[Esquimalt]

My best guess would be 12~13", I'll have to head out and check but we have a 1.5ft wall in the back that's completely hidden under snow now that wasn't during the big snowfall here last February.

Might go down as one of our best events in a long time.  And it essentially came out of nowhere which I found crazy.  

[Omegaraptor]

Tim should move to Sequim. 

 

I know I wouldn't. The only real thing they have going for them is Fraser Outflow like in Feb 2019. Otherwise you might as well be on the moon if you want interesting weather.

 

Pretty sure Tim would want warmer summers than Sequim anyway.

[jakerepp]

Seems like they get nailed every few years though. Snowfall averages at most stations are built on extremely spotty data. The station near me averages about 15" a year, and in the 9 years I have lived here I'm averaging over 35" a year, and its not like the past decade has been very snowy. 

Yeah, I'm a bit skeptical of that number. 

[BLI snowman]

Seems like they get nailed every few years though. Snowfall averages at most stations are built on extremely spotty data. The station near me averages about 15" a year, and in the 9 years I have lived here I'm averaging over 35" a year, and its not like the past decade has been very snowy. 

 

Yeah, Port Angeles is probably more like 10-12" long term.

 

They will get totally nailed in the right setup with upslope snow in strong Fraser River events, but they can also go a long time without a lot of action. They typically get shadowed badly during overrunning events and anything backdoor oriented or with onshore flow is a no go for them. I think they went from January 2012 to February 2019 without any >2" events, so the last two years are just making up for that.

[HighlandExperience]

Yeah, Port Angeles is probably more like 10-12" long term.

 

They will get totally nailed in the right setup with upslope snow in strong Fraser River events, but they can also go a long time without a lot of action. They typically get shadowed badly during overrunning events and anything backdoor oriented or with onshore flow is a no go for them. I think they went from January 2012 to February 2019 without any >2" events, so the last two years are just making up for that.

Pretty much feast or famine for them.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The CPC analog composite for days 8-14 is pretty awful. Some major blahhhh years in there. A lot of 1981, 1958, etc... 1960 is on the list too, we had some good stuff in late February/early March that year. 

[MossMan]

My plow attachment has already paid for itself! And my junipers are resting comfortably.

[MossMan]

My temp is dropping. Down to 31.0

[Omegaraptor]

12z GFS is boring and splitty. There's a 969mb low off the coast around 42N at hour 126 but it looks too far away to give us a wind event just some boring drizzle. Every low just goes to either BC or CA and we get table scraps.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Split flow is just the worst...

[FroYoBro]

Up to 34 now. I see some radar returns starting up to the south of here. Might be virga or we will see some light snow in a bit.

[GHweatherChris]

Any Kuchera maps for snowfall today? Not including anything from last night

[TT-SEA]

 

Regardless of the differing snow totals, I think we can all agree the GFS did horribly for temps.

 

 

Juuuuuust a bit outside....

 

GFS ended up only being off by 31° for Seattle's morning low temp today ������ Predicted 6 for today from last Thursday's run. It was 37. pic.twitter.com/6DpwGQeDb1— Scott Sistek (@ScottSKOMO) January 15, 2020

GFS temp maps and temp output should honestly never be used. Might as well draw your own fantasy maps. Its just silly.

[FroYoBro]

Remember when models showed today staying in the low to mid 20’s in Portland with a blizzard?

 

I miss that.

[BLI snowman]

Remember when models showed today staying in the low to mid 20’s in Portland with a blizzard?

 

I miss that.

 

Would have been nice to have at least salvaged something from it. It's such a battle just to get anything measurable around here.

[Blizzard777]

31* 

21* dp

south wind 1 mph 

[Requiem]

Remember when models showed today staying in the low to mid 20’s in Portland with a blizzard?

 

I miss that.

 

Maybe one day!

[GHweatherChris]

Any Kuchera maps for snowfall today? Not including anything from last night

Guess not

[weather_fan]

are we expecting any fun today?My phone says the days of freezing temps in SEA are done.

[Jesse]

12z GFS is boring and splitty. There's a 969mb low off the coast around 42N at hour 126 but it looks too far away to give us a wind event just some boring drizzle. Every low just goes to either BC or CA and we get table scraps.

Apparently the last 2-3 weeks have already been completely deleted from your memory.

[GHweatherChris]

Through tomorrow morning...

Thanks, forget I asked lol

[Prairiedog]

Warmed up from 28 to 31f in the last two hrs.  Not throwing in the towel until its 33f. Long way to go. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS and its ensembles agree that 850mb temps will rise to near +10C at PDX Sunday night. 

[Omegaraptor]

Apparently the last 2-3 weeks have already been completely deleted from your memory.

Uhh... what?

 

There is nothing hinting at cold or snow in the next two weeks. It’s +PNA and +EPO with models showing no cold air anywhere nearby. Is any of what I said incorrect?

[BLI snowman]

Apparently the last 2-3 weeks have already been completely deleted from your memory.

 

Certainly was significantly better for the mountains, but there wasn't anything remotely consequential here locally in the valley pit of despair.

 

No significant storms, snow, and until last night not even a single freeze. Hard not to feel like we just entirely wasted what was probably our only real window for fun this winter. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Already starting to get some breezy East winds.

Can you post a total snow map through Saturday. I am interested in that friday storm.

[Jesse]

Uhh... what?

 

There is nothing hinting at cold or snow in the next two weeks. It’s +PNA and +EPO with models showing no cold air anywhere nearby. Is any of what I said incorrect?

Seems we’ve been in a fairly active pattern with a ton of mountain snow since the new year. That’s a pattern you are always complaining about not seeing and now that we’ve had one it’s almost as if it didn’t even happen. It’s just back to the same drumbeat of storms ALWAYS missing us to the north or south.