February 2020 (It's cold at the end of the run!)

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings Twitter gives a shout out to NWS Omaha on the potential pattern coming up.  Interesting.

 

https://twitter.com/NWSHastings/status/1230471924628643840?s=20

[Tom]

-2 with a wind chill of -14 with what looks like 1.5” of snow.

Glad to hear you got something outta this system. You’ll be able to enjoy it for a couple days!

[Madtown]

-8 the low at -7.1 now

[CentralNebWeather]

Glad to hear you got something outta this system. You’ll be able to enjoy it for a couple days!

Forecast of 60 Saturday and potential Rain or Snow storms Sunday night/ Monday and Tuesday/Wednesday. Life on the Central Great Plains. 

[Andie]

Our rain has moved out and is currently east of Dallas. Some local flooding in areas.

 

43* this morning. Heavy Overcast skies. Light wind.

[Niko]

Attm, its 14F under deep, blue skies. Its gorgeous outside!

[Northland09]

Woke up to -17 at the house this morning.  It really isn't all that bad since there is no wind.  However, I would be singing a different tune if I was to be out there longer than 5 min. Even though this winter hasn't been bad or extreme at all, I am so ready for this weekend and feeling the bright sunshine with 40 degree temps!  It'll be a nice preview to Spring!

[Clinton]

NWS Hastings Twitter gives a shout out to NWS Omaha on the potential pattern coming up.  Interesting.

 

https://twitter.com/NWSHastings/status/1230471924628643840?s=20

12z NAM has 997mb low in S. Kansas, that should be a good spot for you.

[St Paul Storm]

Woke up to -17 at the house this morning.  It really isn't all that bad since there is no wind.  However, I would be singing a different tune if I was to be out there longer than 5 min. Even though this winter hasn't been bad or extreme at all, I am so ready for this weekend and feeling the bright sunshine with 40 degree temps!  It'll be a nice preview to Spring!

I completely agree with this. This winter has been good, but nothing extreme in terms of cold or snowfall. The difference this winter compared to the last few is that it’s been seasonably cold (for the most part) and we’ve had snow on the ground all winter. We haven’t had a consistent winter like this in a while. I’m ready for some warmth this weekend too, even if it dents the snowpack. Warm sun in late Feb is twice as strong as in December. It’s going to be a nice break. We still have a ways to go with winter, so we gotta enjoy it!

[CentralNebWeather]

12z NAM has 997mb low in S. Kansas, that should be a good spot for you.

Probably going to be fine line between rain and snow.  Where that sets up will make all the difference.  Farther west and northwest in Kansas and Nebraska would be the place to be imo. 

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z GFS is remarkably similar to the NAM.  Less snow but that can fluctuate in the coming days.  I think it will be a razor sharp rain/snow line.

[MIKEKC]

GFS close to the EURO for the second storm in the heartland. Just not as big of a storm and as wide spread.

 

Looks like KC will see mostly rain with the first one(can’t rule out a changeover to snow late Sunday night) followed by a colder storm midweek.

 

Come on SNOW!

[james1976]

Dont we have a thread for this system(s)?

[Grizzcoat]

IN the last week- Hibbing,MN has set two record mins-- -32F on Valentines Day and -33F this AM breaking the old record of -27F in 1963. This month's  avg temp is 5.0F -  5.4 below normal through the 20th.

[Niko]

Attm, 17F under clear skies. Lows dipping into the upper single digits.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Man the 0Z run of the GFS definitely looked like early spring! Especially the latter half of the run.

Just put a fork in this winter already.

[clintbeed1993]

Grand Island has been reporting moderate to heavy snow the past couple of hours. Clint must not be too impressed because its silence from him  . The usual steady light pixie dust has commenced here with a very light dusting now. 

LOL.  I'm not impressed easily.  In all seriousness I was stuck inside so didn't get to enjoy it but it was nice to look at out the window for a few minutes. Only got a couple inches but oh well

[westMJim]

Lots of sun here today. The low overnight was +8 here at my house with the official low of 12 out at the airport. I live just NW of Grand Rapids and there is a good 3” of snow on the ground here but in the city and into the southside of the city there is a lot less snow on the ground. With the sun the temperature is now up to 24 here.

[Beltrami Island]

IN the last week- Hibbing,MN has set two record mins-- -32F on Valentines Day and -33F this AM breaking the old record of -27F in 1963. This month's  avg temp is 5.0F -  5.4 below normal through the 20th.

 

I have had 13 mornings of -20 or less so far this winter.  The notable thing is that the cold has never established itself this year.  It seems every "cold" morning is followed by southerly flow within 12-36 hours warming things up dramatically.  I guess  this goes to show how strong the polar vortex is this year.   When the cold air did find its way to northern minnesota it has been potent, but only small chunks of it have seemed to reach northern minnesota, no continuous flow of cold air you'd get from an established blocking/NW flow setup.     

 

Now Hibbing has gone from -33f to +36f in 31 hours.  

[OKwx2k4]

The beat goes on. Topping the charts today. Calling this a super AO+ is not a stretch.

 

There will no doubt be some effects from this somewhere down the line.

[OKwx2k4]

^^^^^^^^^^

A.K.A.: "How to Destroy Any Chance of a Winter Anywhere South of K.C. Post-New Year's Day"

[Madtown]

unreal AO

[Niko]

Attm, clear skies w temps at 31F. I don't think I have seen a cloud now for 2 days. Wow!

[Niko]

This weekend could feature near 50F. Looking real good. All outside activities are approved weatherwise.

[gimmesnow]

Is the GFS on more drugs than usual? It's calling for sub zero temps the first week of March.

[Grizzcoat]

I have had 13 mornings of -20 or less so far this winter.  The notable thing is that the cold has never established itself this year.  It seems every "cold" morning is followed by southerly flow within 12-36 hours warming things up dramatically.  I guess  this goes to show how strong the polar vortex is this year.   When the cold air did find its way to northern minnesota it has been potent, but only small chunks of it have seemed to reach northern minnesota, no continuous flow of cold air you'd get from an established blocking/NW flow setup.     

 

Now Hibbing has gone from -33f to +36f in 31 hours.  

If you follow N.MN obs closely you will see (and this is just a snapshot) that Hibbing has been running consistently below  ( temps at night) other reporting stations in N.MN. It's not air mass induced- rather snow cover and calm winds. This is producing it's own cold air - rather than CAA from Canada. 

[Hawkeye]

Three years ago, today, the temperature hit 76º in Cedar Rapids.  That's pretty ridiculous for February.  In fact, it's the record.  It was also 71º five days earlier.

[OmahaSnowFan]

[CentralNebWeather]

12z GFS has a storm 10 days out again. Of course this storm in the next couple of days, that looks to miss much of Nebraska again, was going to drop feet of snow here. This winter I would always bet the under imo.

[mlgamer]

My gut feeling is the Tuesday system is the last chance for anything significant here and that chance looks pretty weak. The crazy strong AO+ killed winter early in my neck of the woods. Recent winters here have overall been pretty meh. Maybe this will change next year or maybe it will continue as is for another 20+ years. Who knows...

[OKwx2k4]

My gut feeling is the Tuesday system is the last chance for anything significant here and that chance looks pretty weak. The crazy strong AO+ killed winter early in my neck of the woods. Recent winters here have overall been pretty meh. Maybe this will change next year or maybe it will continue as is for another 20+ years. Who knows...

4-8 years is really the max for these types of cycles, imo. Long-term, I'm probably nearer 5.5 years on this overall type of pattern that started in summer of 2014. It's sad but seeing drought risks return to the south and west will be a good indicator of this longer term cycle passing. (At least the portions driven by the equatorial tropics).

 

The problem we face here is entering or fading back into a type of pattern that persisted from 2008-2012 where the ridges don't migrate. Lots of things to look at going forward.

[westMJim]

With the sun we had yesterday and mild temperatures took a big bite out of the snow cover here. There now is a lot of bare ground showing. Of course the snow piles are still there and there is still snow on the north side of building and in the woods yet. It is not unusual to have no snow on the ground in late February. In the 30 leap years of records here at Grand Rapids 15 had either no snow on the ground or just a reported trace. At this time it is sunny here with a temperature of 36. 

[jaster220]

Yesterday hit 45F w/sun and today add another 5+ deg's? Going to enjoy this early spring feel today. The temps aren't that much of a torch, but the longer daylight and noticeable higher sun angle are making the difference vs the same conditions a month ago. 

[Tom]

Yesterday hit 45F w/sun and today add another 5+ deg's? Going to enjoy this early spring feel today. The temps aren't that much of a torch, but the longer daylight and noticeable higher sun angle are making the difference vs the same conditions a month ago.

We may be heading into the upper 50’s today...a little spring fever action no doubt...

[Niko]

Yesterday hit 45F w/sun and today add another 5+ deg's? Going to enjoy this early spring feel today. The temps aren't that much of a torch, but the longer daylight and noticeable higher sun angle are making the difference vs the same conditions a month ago. 

I agree amigo! Yesterday felt so great being outside. Right after the gym, I went and played basketball w buddies of mine who are here from NYC (Harlem upper west side) and I could not believe how mild it was. My high was 47F, but w full sunshine, it felt much better. Also, like you mentioned above, higher sun angle makes it feel warmer this time of the year. Tbh, after this beautiful stretch of sunny days we have been having and warmer temps, I think I am done w snow once Feb exits, if not now.

[CentralNebWeather]

The 12z GFS has another storm that hits Nebraska in, 10 days. You can’t make this stuff up.

[St Paul Storm]

42 glorious degrees. And I can finally see the asphalt on the driveway. First time since early Dec. Birds are chirping, full sun. Wearing a long sleeve shirt as I do some outdoor cleanup. Come on Spring!

[OmahaSnowFan]

Over performing today. Up to 64 degrees already!

[james1976]

42 glorious degrees. And I can finally see the asphalt on the driveway. First time since early Dec. Birds are chirping, full sun. Wearing a long sleeve shirt as I do some outdoor cleanup. Come on Spring!

It's nice here in Vadnais Heights. 45 on my phone!

[St Paul Storm]

It's nice here in Vadnais Heights. 45 on my phone!

Yep, 45 now on the backyard thermometer. Probably will go up another 1-2 degrees too. The sun feels amazing.