Hawkeye Posted February 1, 2020 Report Share Posted February 1, 2020 12z UK... there would be more snow in that eastern band after 144 hrs. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 1, 2020 Report Share Posted February 1, 2020 Tom, that's last night's 00z run. Pivotal has an annoying tendency to default to the previous run. You have to be sure to change it to the current run. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2020 Tom, that's last night's 00z run. Pivotal has an annoying tendency to default to the previous run. You have to be sure to change it to the current run.D**n, your right...my bad... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2020 12z Ukie...still showing that developing comma head though just farther east this run... Wow, the Ukie deepens it down to the low 970's! 972mb storm near Cincinnati, OH... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2020 12z GEFS...weak and SE...a majority of the members don't develop till late in the game...there is another feature that is showing up in a lot of the members and a rotating piece of energy dropping in from the north which has happened in previous LRC cycles and could lay down a couple more inches of snow. Might consider extending that into this thread since it seems to be influencing this storm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 1, 2020 Report Share Posted February 1, 2020 12z CMC still holding on to the 3 waves blast Niko and does ok for many. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2020 12z GGEM... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 1, 2020 Report Share Posted February 1, 2020 12z CMC still holding on to the 3 waves blast Niko and does ok for many.Another double digit snowstorm for mby??!! Wow! 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2020 The subtle difference in today's 12z Ukie run and last night's is the energy that dives south out of the Upper MW. Last night's run showed more seperation which allowed the southern energy to deepen quicker and more on it's own. Today's run, same time stamp, you can see that same energy in the Plains is farther south and is influencing the southern stream energy... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted February 1, 2020 Report Share Posted February 1, 2020 Yet another thread the needle event and right now we're holding the needle in SEMI, sure hope this holds. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uticasnow Posted February 1, 2020 Report Share Posted February 1, 2020 It will change 5 times at least between now and then so don't get your hopes up! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2020 The 12z Euro is trending stronger with the HP over the GL's...prob not going to cut NW as much this run... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 1, 2020 Report Share Posted February 1, 2020 Euro is backtracking a bit this run. The northern part of the western energy gets a bit more caught up in the westerlies again, which ultimately leads to the entire mess sliding eastward in a more positively-tilted way. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 1, 2020 Report Share Posted February 1, 2020 12z Euro 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 1, 2020 Report Share Posted February 1, 2020 12z EC and EPS mean 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 1, 2020 Report Share Posted February 1, 2020 Kinda hard to segregate these waves for next week. Hopefully, it becomes one strong wave and call it at that. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted February 1, 2020 Report Share Posted February 1, 2020 Based on this winter's trends of slight-chance-of-snow events turning into 0.5 - 1.0" and 6"+ forecasts turning into 2-4", an early 1" call for Omaha shouldn't be too far off the mark when all's said and doneMight be a bit too high at this rate 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 1, 2020 Report Share Posted February 1, 2020 Looks like it begins to neg tilt a little past this timeframe. I just got this feeling this storm is going to blow up somewhere across the OHV. Define "blow up" pls? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 1, 2020 Report Share Posted February 1, 2020 The 12z Euro is trending stronger with the HP over the GL's...prob not going to cut NW as much this run... You mean I might actually get a favorable HP for once? Woo Hoo! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 1, 2020 Report Share Posted February 1, 2020 Yet another thread the needle event and right now we're holding the needle in SEMI, sure hope this holds. It will change 5 times at least between now and then so don't get your hopes up! I mentioned this one's all about timing being just right, thus why I was hesitant to trigger a thread myself. Still, things haven't gotten dire yet, and some of those GEFS members are really impressive for SEMI. D-town may just score again! Got a hot hand this winter 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 1, 2020 Report Share Posted February 1, 2020 I mentioned this one's all about timing being just right, thus why I was hesitant to trigger a thread myself. Still, things haven't gotten dire yet, and some of those GEFS members are really impressive for SEMI. D-town may just score again! Got a hot hand this winter 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 1, 2020 Report Share Posted February 1, 2020 18Z GFS Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 1, 2020 Report Share Posted February 1, 2020 2nd Wave is waving goodbye!!! Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 1, 2020 Report Share Posted February 1, 2020 2nd Wave is waving goodbye!!!Good. Our office isn’t buying that garbage model. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 1, 2020 Report Share Posted February 1, 2020 The subtle difference in today's 12z Ukie run and last night's is the energy that dives south out of the Upper MW. Last night's run showed more seperation which allowed the southern energy to deepen quicker and more on it's own. Today's run, same time stamp, you can see that same energy in the Plains is farther south and is influencing the southern stream energy... Looks like the main difference is simply that the main energy is just way further S on the 12z run, no? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 2, 2020 Report Share Posted February 2, 2020 @Jaster- What do ya think of UKIE......I mean, if this were to happen, then, wow. One heck of a low baro 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 2, 2020 Report Share Posted February 2, 2020 Good. Our office isn’t buying that garbage model. true that I always go with the one that’s good for my area! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 2, 2020 Report Share Posted February 2, 2020 18z Euro weaker and much slower with second wave. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted February 2, 2020 Report Share Posted February 2, 2020 I'm sorry people but this ISN'T a good winter weather pattern. Honestly it's garbage and only good for weak strung out waves with sloppy nuisance snows. Then it warms up again later next week. Straight trash 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 2, 2020 Report Share Posted February 2, 2020 18z Euro weaker and much slower with second wave.Your area looks like something will give next week. Very interesting bud! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted February 2, 2020 Report Share Posted February 2, 2020 NAM trending north with the first wave over last few runs. The globals that suppress the first wave are much more amped with second or third. Just taking a guess that the NAM would fall into the suppressed 2nd/3rd wave camp. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 2, 2020 Report Share Posted February 2, 2020 NAM is crap for Iowa. It has the northern stream grabbing the western energy and stretching it out into nothing. Last night's 00z models may have been just a little tease. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 2, 2020 Report Share Posted February 2, 2020 @Jaster- What do ya think of UKIE......I mean, if this were to happen, then, wow. One heck of a low baro Well, it kinda depends on where it goes from there? Verbatim, that's a bit too SE for most of SMI unless it takes a hard left and shoots due N from there. I think at this range, best to just consider it a nice eye candy map and leave it at that. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 2, 2020 Report Share Posted February 2, 2020 Nam is crap for just about everyone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 2, 2020 Report Share Posted February 2, 2020 Not the models...but this winter is crap 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 2, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2020 00z ICON looking interesting... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 2, 2020 Report Share Posted February 2, 2020 The GFS is awful. It doesn't even try to hold any energy back. It's positive/strung-out energy from the start. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 2, 2020 Report Share Posted February 2, 2020 00z ICON looking interesting...Has a real nice comma head with that second wave. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 2, 2020 Report Share Posted February 2, 2020 Only real hope is we are in the 5 day range where everything seems to fall apart before it slowly comes back together by 2 or 1 day out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 2, 2020 Report Share Posted February 2, 2020 GFS is actually getting worse. (If that is even possible). Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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