July 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Andie]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

CPC August outlook is nice, really hope it verifies.

I’ve read analysts with the opposite opinion.  It appears even the models can’t agree.  

[Clinton]

4 minutes ago, Andie said:

I’ve read analysts with the opposite opinion.  It appears even the models can’t agree.  

Who knows for sure but the 3 month outlook is also similar.

[Andie]

We expect a high of only 95 tomorrow!

Low of 75!
A Reprieve for both Sat and Sun.  
Sweet!

[Andie]

5 hours ago, Clinton said:

Who knows for sure but the 3 month outlook is also similar.

I’m very curious if the High pressure moves NE.  Listened to a met seriously consider this due to El Niño’s influence.  Wish I’d caught his name.  
But it looks intense if it does occur.

Maybe the models are varying depending on percent of influence of Niño.  

[OKwx2k4]

5 hours ago, Andie said:

I’m very curious if the High pressure moves NE.  Listened to a met seriously consider this due to El Niño’s influence.  Wish I’d caught his name.  
But it looks intense if it does occur.

Maybe the models are varying depending on percent of influence of Niño.  

They're showing the autumn I've forecast, basically. That ridge over TX has a home SW and the Northern part becomes an NAO block in my scenarios. This is the setup to our winter. 

A lot of mets forecast Niño based off only one of them... 1998.

There's so much more to it than "California floods and the weather is extreme. Push how warm it is." That's the Niño agenda. It's a stock forecast, basically. I guess what I'm saying here is El Niño is neither a blanket statement nor an excuse. Lol. 

That SW ridge now has a tropical pacific connection forming as waters increase dramatically in temperature over and near Baja the last few weeks. 

Cold air typically over time pools up over the continents in our current ocean alignment. With the warm pool setting up in the NE Pac, the theory here is that the EPO/AO/NAO drive the bus while the Niño starts to fade out and just subtly feeds moisture into storms. That's the scenario I envision as these heatwave episodes break down. 

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 82/63 for another average temperature day Officially there was no rain fall but here at my house there was a brief shower yesterday that dropped 0.02” of rain fall that shower became much bigger as it moved east and there were some nice cumulonimbus clouds to the east. Officially there was 78% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 83/63 the record high of 97 was set in 1934 and the record low of 43 was set in 1947.

There is a chance that we could tap into some really hot air next week note that is not yet in the detailed forecast for next week as highs are forecasted in the upper 80’s to near 90.

[Tom]

I could get used to these cool & comfy mornings...61F/57F..."all good things must come to an end" as a "mini" heat wave is still on track for middle/end of this coming week.  My gut says it won't linger as long as some of you farther west/south may experience bc of the pattern we have been locked in around the GL's region with trough's galore.. @Madtown place up north is prime example.  

[Tom]

I'm getting a bit excited for a pretty large Severe Wx Threat during the Thu PM/Fri period for the eastern MW/GL's region.  This looks like a classic strong Summer CF that will sag south along the intense thermal boundary.  Before then, however, some nocturnal MCS's are in the cards in and around the cornbelt region of the MW as the models are sorta flashing this scenario.  I'm going to wait till we get into the CAM range to see the higher rez models picking up on these waves.  Should be an interesting week of weather coming up next week.

@Hoosier, so much for those 100's being forecast off the Euro's crazy HOT bias??  Even our local WGN crew was "pumping" the upper 90's (99F) way to quick.  They always seem to lean on the warmer side of things, heck, even in the winter season they do the same....but to the contrary, if there is a Cold wave coming....you won't see them predict those colder temps in the extended!

Anyway, the main story for next week is the soupy airmass we will ALL be experiencing...hey, I don't mind at all...it's late July and its summa time...upper 70 DP's, maybe 80F Dew's?

[Clinton]

This will likely be the last day with below average temps for awhile.  The average high is 89, there does seem to be some hope that the strong high may move a little west by mid to late week putting me near the ring of fire and providing a chance for a storm or 2.

[Black Hole]

3 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

They're showing the autumn I've forecast, basically. That ridge over TX has a home SW and the Northern part becomes an NAO block in my scenarios. This is the setup to our winter. 

A lot of mets forecast Niño based off only one of them... 1998.

There's so much more to it than "California floods and the weather is extreme. Push how warm it is." That's the Niño agenda. It's a stock forecast, basically. I guess what I'm saying here is El Niño is neither a blanket statement nor an excuse. Lol. 

That SW ridge now has a tropical pacific connection forming as waters increase dramatically in temperature over and near Baja the last few weeks. 

Cold air typically over time pools up over the continents in our current ocean alignment. With the warm pool setting up in the NE Pac, the theory here is that the EPO/AO/NAO drive the bus while the Niño starts to fade out and just subtly feeds moisture into storms. That's the scenario I envision as these heatwave episodes break down. 

I recall I've mentioned a couple of times how this years summer pattern seems default to the 2009 look with that Great Plains trough/SW ridge look. I am already seeing signs in the extended (10-14) period that some kind of trough will likely return to the northern Plains (with some effects further south too of course). 

What is interesting to me is how models have just been convinced all summer that ridging is going to set in and dominate but we keep sneaking troughs in instead. Even when the ridging does materialize, as we get closer it frequently looks less extreme than what models had in the days before as well. So it seems that there is something models aren't resolving correctly that continues to help us stay a bit cooler overall and for now no reason to assume that will change. 

[Andie]

3 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

They're showing the autumn I've forecast, basically. That ridge over TX has a home SW and the Northern part becomes an NAO block in my scenarios. This is the setup to our winter. 

A lot of mets forecast Niño based off only one of them... 1998.

There's so much more to it than "California floods and the weather is extreme. Push how warm it is." That's the Niño agenda. It's a stock forecast, basically. I guess what I'm saying here is El Niño is neither a blanket statement nor an excuse. Lol. 

That SW ridge now has a tropical pacific connection forming as waters increase dramatically in temperature over and near Baja the last few weeks. 

Cold air typically over time pools up over the continents in our current ocean alignment. With the warm pool setting up in the NE Pac, the theory here is that the EPO/AO/NAO drive the bus while the Niño starts to fade out and just subtly feeds moisture into storms. That's the scenario I envision as these heatwave episodes break down. 

I hope you’re right and these others are wrong. It’s getting rough here and safety is at the top of the list. People are starting to pay the heats’ price.  

Nice 2 day break this weekend  highs only around 96/97 with a change in the jet stream.  It will be appreciated and felt for certain.  
Then back to the grind at 101-104 for the week.

 

[Black Hole]

Here is an example of that from today showing how the GEFS ensemble has trended weaker with the ridge and closer/stronger with the trough at 10-11 days out. This is the one day change. 

 

[Timmy Supercell]

A local station here was trying to call last night a "taste of September" yet I only stayed around 66 degrees for a low. That's pretty close to my average low.

Maybe other areas got cooler.

[chescowxman]

Some valley locations like Marsh Creek bottomed out at 59.8 this AM only 62.9 here in East Nantmeal. Today will be our 6th straight below normal temperature day. This cool streak looks to continue until Tuesday. By mid week we will see a big warmup with a great chance that even East Nantmeal and the ridge locations in the county may see their 1st 90 degree day in over 2 years! Friday looks like it may be the peak heat day. So enjoy the great weather this weekend!

[OKwx2k4]

4 hours ago, Black Hole said:

I recall I've mentioned a couple of times how this years summer pattern seems default to the 2009 look with that Great Plains trough/SW ridge look. I am already seeing signs in the extended (10-14) period that some kind of trough will likely return to the northern Plains (with some effects further south too of course). 

What is interesting to me is how models have just been convinced all summer that ridging is going to set in and dominate but we keep sneaking troughs in instead. Even when the ridging does materialize, as we get closer it frequently looks less extreme than what models had in the days before as well. So it seems that there is something models aren't resolving correctly that continues to help us stay a bit cooler overall and for now no reason to assume that will change. 

Yes! Absolutely. You nailed it. I've seen it every time. In fact, it's very well noticed in the fact that I'm sub-20 on 90 degree days. Does that mean it's not been hot? Nope. BUT, lasting heat anywhere but west and SW of us? No. Not even close to what we see forecast a lot of times. 

If I looked at modeled heat anomalies on maps in forecast vs actual results. It's night and day to me. If we only remembered anomaly forecast maps, we could easily be deceived to think this summer has been horrifyingly hot all over. Not true at all, as the actual temps proved out.

Also, very correct on the 2009 look. The pattern gets to where it really looks like a massive "death dome" may setup like in the mid-and late 90s or a couple of the early 2ks years and then "slam", a trough busts it all up. Yesterday was the coolest July day I can remember since 2009. Well, it was actually the coolest high for that day since 1915.

I think it's compelling that three of us have independently said, "Hmmm...Something is off here." 

That and the 2009 flashes are so uncanny. If the 1.2 region of Niño collapses, we'll see more of that 2009 pattern.

I can't blame forecasters when guidance is off, but they have a duty to make sure we are safe. Far cry from crying wolf. Extreme heat and cold without warning are both deadly, so I get caution. Especially with more and more people in our time today, it seems, who are intolerant to extremes of temperature do to lack of acclimation or activity in some situations.

I guess what I'm saying is that you folks have had your hands full this year. 

[Black Hole]

1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Yes! Absolutely. You nailed it. I've seen it every time. In fact, it's very well noticed in the fact that I'm sub-20 on 90 degree days. Does that mean it's not been hot? Nope. BUT, lasting heat anywhere but west and SW of us? No. Not even close to what we see forecast a lot of times. 

If I looked at modeled heat anomalies on maps in forecast vs actual results. It's night and day to me. If we only remembered anomaly forecast maps, we could easily be deceived to think this summer has been horrifyingly hot all over. Not true at all, as the actual temps proved out.

Also, very correct on the 2009 look. The pattern gets to where it really looks like a massive "death dome" may setup like in the mid-and late 90s or a couple of the early 2ks years and then "slam", a trough busts it all up. Yesterday was the coolest July day I can remember since 2009. Well, it was actually the coolest high for that day since 1915.

I think it's compelling that three of us have independently said, "Hmmm...Something is off here." 

That and the 2009 flashes are so uncanny. If the 1.2 region of Niño collapses, we'll see more of that 2009 pattern.

I can't blame forecasters when guidance is off, but they have a duty to make sure we are safe. Far cry from crying wolf. Extreme heat and cold without warning are both deadly, so I get caution. Especially with more and more people in our time today, it seems, who are intolerant to extremes of temperature do to lack of acclimation or activity in some situations.

I guess what I'm saying is that you folks have had your hands full this year. 

Also well said! I've been routinely cutting down the guidance in my mid range forecasts all summer for the reasons we've talked about. Models just don't know what to do this year. It's nice that we are well on our way to fall at this point, about halfway there with really only a couple of truly hot days so far.

[Andie]

The jet stream delivered today. 
Currently 92* instead of the 96/97 they’d predicted.  
Thanks Mother Nature!  The morning was an inspiration! Cool, light breeze. Ah, I recall those days.  

One more day of ‘Jet Stream Joy’ and it’s back in the oven.  But the break has helped.  
They forecast 96/97 tomorrow. Maybe we’ll luck out again and go under 95.

[CentralNebWeather]

 

Surprise storms. Temp has dropped 20 degrees. Heavy rain falling. 0.40” in 10 minutes. Some minor street flooding in my area of town. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Hmm... that's a weird shaped gap in the activity. Goes right through my place.

[OKwx2k4]

10 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Also well said! I've been routinely cutting down the guidance in my mid range forecasts all summer for the reasons we've talked about. Models just don't know what to do this year. It's nice that we are well on our way to fall at this point, about halfway there with really only a couple of truly hot days so far.

Absolutely. I'm looking forward to what should be a truly beautiful autumn. I don't really see a future of summer prolonging itself into late September, as has been normal the last few years. Warm-dry autumn is more of a Niña type feature, although not a guarantee.

If we get a huge cool week in the middle of next month, it'll ring more of those 2009 memory bells. 

That year was perfect. White Christmas, snow in every month. 

I'm truly glad we have good and smart folks like you in our NWS here in Oklahoma. You have one of the most difficult or challenging meteorology jobs of most offices in the country. It's not something I take for granted.

The July cooldown at the end of 2009 did produce the coldest July day I remember. According to mesonet, 7/30/2009 had a high of 76 and a low of 66, still making it the coldest I can remember. (Besting even the record from 1915 that was recently reset).

What's compelling is that it came 2 weeks after a string of 97-100 degree weather over 5-6 days.

Month had a temp spread of 100/53. It had something for everyone. Lol.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at GR was 84/60. There was a trace of rain fall. 81% of possible sunshine, the highest wind gust was 22 MPH out of the SW. For today the average H/L is 83/63 the record high of 101 was set in 1934 and the record low of 45 was set in 1947 and 1985. The record rain fall amount of 2.65” fell in 2021. Last year the H/L was 90/68 and there was 0.64” of rain fall. At the current time there is a light shower here in MBY and I have had 0.02” of rain so far from that shower.

The week ahead looks to be very summer like, with highs ranging from the upper 70’s today and could get as warm as the low 90’s before cooling back down to the low to mid 80’s, there is also several chances of showers and maybe a thunderstorm.

[Tom]

The line of showers/storms that rolled through S Wisco came together overnight around 1-2:00am and I think I heard a rumble of thunder or two around that time.  Local wx station says around 0.41" fell and is just enough for the vegetation to get a decent drink from nature.  You can start to feel the humidity today and will surge beginning on Tue as temps rise into the 90's.

[Clinton]

The dog days of summer will kick off tomorrow, it's going to be a good week to enjoy the pool after work.

[Andie]

After habitually beginning our mornings at, or a bit above, 84, we are currently at a lovely 74*!   Sweet. 
High in the mid 90’s today.  
Then back on our heads and into the 100’s.  I guess Heaven will have to wait a little longer.  
Happy Sunday! 

[chescowxman]

Morning lows were again below average today with many lower elevation spots reaching the 50's again. Today will be our 7th straight (but last) below normal day with highs topping out in the low to mid 80's. Temps should reach the 90's starting Wednesday for many areas in the county. In fact we could see our first "heat wave" (3 consecutive days over 90) since July 19-21, 2020. In fact in the last 20 years we have only recorded 10 "heat waves" in total here in Chesco! This heat will be short lived as the pattern will shift again by next weekend and we look to go back to near normal to below pattern through the first 10 days of August.

Records for today: High 98 (1991) / Low 51 (1983) / Rain 4.04" (1946)

[Hawkeye]

I was fortunate to get a tiny thundershower early this morning, which dropped 0.17", enough to fill my rain barrel.  Unfortunately, models have backed off of the rain chances this week.  The Euro has replaced the rain with worse heat.

[Black Hole]

11 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Absolutely. I'm looking forward to what should be a truly beautiful autumn. I don't really see a future of summer prolonging itself into late September, as has been normal the last few years. Warm-dry autumn is more of a Niña type feature, although not a guarantee.

If we get a huge cool week in the middle of next month, it'll ring more of those 2009 memory bells. 

That year was perfect. White Christmas, snow in every month. 

I'm truly glad we have good and smart folks like you in our NWS here in Oklahoma. You have one of the most difficult or challenging meteorology jobs of most offices in the country. It's not something I take for granted.

The July cooldown at the end of 2009 did produce the coldest July day I remember. According to mesonet, 7/30/2009 had a high of 76 and a low of 66, still making it the coldest I can remember. (Besting even the record from 1915 that was recently reset).

What's compelling is that it came 2 weeks after a string of 97-100 degree weather over 5-6 days.

Month had a temp spread of 100/53. It had something for everyone. Lol.

You're giving me hope! Thanks for the kind words too. I've learned a lot since coming from Phoenix. Definitely harder but much more satisfying too. 

[OKwx2k4]

There's no getting away from a good punch of heat for most of us in the subforum through the next 5-7 days.

The top half or so of the forum appears to get cooled quickly after. 

Longer-range stuff is really showing split-signals. The annoying ridge causing all this appears to reset in the SW, while possibly retrograding further west, in some runs and ensembles. Some even stack ridging up the west coast all the way into the Arctic and Alaska. This would almost certainly put cooler readings east of the Rockies just after month's end and into August without any type of SE ridge present, really. 

[mhou]

26 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

There's no getting away from a good punch of heat for most of us in the subforum through the next 5-7 days.

The top half or so of the forum appears to get cooled quickly after. 

Longer-range stuff is really showing split-signals. The annoying ridge causing all this appears to reset in the SW, while possibly retrograding further west, in some runs and ensembles. Some even stack ridging up the west coast all the way into the Arctic and Alaska. This would almost certainly put cooler readings east of the Rockies just after month's end and into August without any type of SE ridge present, really. 

Speaking of the heat, looks like next week is pretty much all 90+ with Wednesday and Thursday reaching almost 100 degrees here near Minneapolis.

[Andie]

Speaking of hot…

103/104 Monday and Tuesday.  Everybody back on your head!  I think most of us in Tx/Ok are used to this so scenario, but it must be a good deal harder on our northern tier neighbors.  
I’m ready for Fall. 

[james1976]

Nice little storm moved through yesterday pm dropping 0.30". Gonna be a hot week for all of us. 99 in the forecast wed and thu up here in MN.

[CentralNebWeather]

91 degrees with a heat index of 102 with a 72 dew. Quite a shock to the system after our cool summer. This will be a hot week, but nothing we haven’t had before. Sounds like it might relax a bit by next weekend and into next week with storm chances returning. 

[OKwx2k4]

8 hours ago, mhou said:

Speaking of the heat, looks like next week is pretty much all 90+ with Wednesday and Thursday reaching almost 100 degrees here near Minneapolis.

Yeah. Looking at my forecast, it's 7 days of 95/70 temps and sunshine. Would be nice, but I work in it. 

Far better than some of the extreme modeled solutions we saw a few days ago.

[Andie]

Tomorrow 103.  
Humidity 50%

Trade ya!

[hawkstwelve]

Some record breaking heat for the Midwest at the end of the GFS run.

[Tom]

5 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Some record breaking heat for the Midwest at the end of the GFS run.

It's funny how much the "Central CONUS Ridge" fires up in the extended on some of the GFS Op runs to a magnitude that is unthinkable.  I'm wondering if the model is running "hot" bc it is taking into account the dry soils?  It's own ensembles show a NW Flow aloft and near normal/BN temps.  My money is on a cooler pattern setting up to open AUG.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday was 76/61. There was 31% of possible sunshine and officially there was 0.35” of rain fall. The highest wind gust was 22MPH out of the S. Here in MBY I only recorded 0.15” of rain fall. For today the average H/L is 83/63 the record high of 103 was set in 1934 and the record low of 47 was set in 1953 the record rain fall amount of 1.53” fell in 2016. Last year the H/L was 80/67 and there was 0.95” of rain fall. The next 5 to 7 days look to be warm/very warm. There could be a 90° or so around very typical for late July.

[Andie]

Texas will see 100-103 over the week.
At this point the details don’t matter. 
However currently it’s 87*
DP is 63 
Pressure 30.05. 
Humidity 59%

Hang in there my northern neighbors!

[Black Hole]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

It's funny how much the "Central CONUS Ridge" fires up in the extended on some of the GFS Op runs to a magnitude that is unthinkable.  I'm wondering if the model is running "hot" bc it is taking into account the dry soils?  It's own ensembles show a NW Flow aloft and near normal/BN temps.  My money is on a cooler pattern setting up to open AUG.

The GFS has an overmixing problem and it seems to result in a dry bias. Typically the moisture in the lower levels keeps that kind of heat from developing, but when the GFS removes it it really allows it to get hot. So I think the GFS is internally consistent, but you have to factor in we can't just dry out like that overnight. You'd need at least a few dry weeks first. 

This gets into the more interesting feedback effects that dominate our summer weather out here. Wet weather results in continued cooler and wet weather. This happens because solar heating goes into evaporating water instead of warming, this keeps ridging weaker, which makes it easier to produce more rain. On the other hand if it does dry out enough, all solar energy goes into heating which reinforces strong ridging making it harder to rain. This year we are on the cooler/wetter track so although we might have some hot periods its best to assume we will return to that given the feedbacks I've mentioned. 

[Clinton]

Complex of storms moving in.  Just needs to hold together a little longer.  Severe thunderstorm warning for the northwestern part of my county but it weakening fast.