August 2023 Weather in the PNW

[snow maniac]

Not sure the burn ban will be lifted here, barely a 10th inch rain so far still very dry here.only had one quick down pour out of the storm.

[TT-SEA]

Up to .65 for this event now and moderate rain still going this morning.    Coupled with the .50 we got last week and with more rain ahead... no longer worried about fire out here this year.   Looking back at past years over the last decade this is similar to 2013, 2014, and 2015 in terms of timing in late August and early September for significant rain.   2018 turned wet about a week later.  

[TT-SEA]

Given how very dry this year has been overall... a wet fall seems quite likely.    The first part of the year was cold and dry and since late April its been warm and dry.    Not sure if the rest of the year will be warm or cold but I would place my bet on wet.   

[Cloud]

So… we’ve flatlined. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

So… we’ve flatlined. 

Doesn't feel chilly out there with the dewpoint around 60 out here this morning.

[TT-SEA]

06Z ECMWF shows the focus of the rain event tomorrow farther south.   In fact it shows partly cloudy in the Seattle area tomorrow afternoon.  

Also shows significant rain over the fire areas in southern OR and northern CA by Friday and Saturday.    Don't want to jinx it... but it seems like worst of the smoke is probably behind us for this year.  

 

[Phil]

Oh man, I hope people heeding the warnings.

https://x.com/wxnb_/status/1696862887719981528?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ
 

[Cloud]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Doesn't feel chilly out there with the dewpoint around 60 out here this morning.

Yeah. With little winds, upper 50s to 60s isn’t all that chilly if you’re a local. If you’re not from here, it may be a different story. Weather feels stagnant. 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Yeah. With little winds, upper 50s to 60s isn’t all that chilly if you’re a local. If you’re not from here, it may be a different story. Weather feels stagnant. 

With the ULL passing to our south yesterday and again tomorrow.... we are missing out on our usual breezy post-frontal conditions.

[Phil]

Jesse-licious pattern on both the ECMWF and GFS. Also favored in the EPAC Niño/IO MJO analog pool, so it very well could happen.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Jesse-licious pattern on both the ECMWF and GFS. Also favored in the EPAC Niño/IO MJO analog pool, so it very well could happen.

I am sure the GFS is just doing GFS things... back and forth between being too aggressive with ridging and then with troughing.   

The ECMWF and EPS look more realistic.   Probably lots of partly cloudy days in the 70s with occasional rain.    Guessing it will be pretty nice by most people's standards and far better than last September and October's smoke-fest.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

Had a decent downpour yesterday evening. Picked up a quick .10” which brings me to .15” for the month so far. Hope to add to that tomorrow.

Ended up with a 72/59 spread yesterday. Midnight low. The smell after the rain, evening clearing, full moon and cool temps last night were definitely giving off some early fall vibes.

[TT-SEA]

The air is clean again and forecasted to stay that way through the weekend.

[the_convergence_zone]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am sure the GFS is just doing GFS things... back and forth between being too aggressive with ridging and then with troughing.   

The ECMWF and EPS look more realistic.   Probably lots of partly cloudy days in the 70s with occasional rain.    Guessing it will be pretty nice by most people's standards and far better than last September and October's smoke-fest.  

Why is there an 80 degree day in there? I thought it was meteorological fall. 

[Phil]

I hate September so much. Wouldn’t shock me if 95-100°F sticks around beyond the fall equinox this year.

Will be living vicariously through you PNW people. Just like I do every year in S/O/N.

[Phil]

I’ve never fully understood why fall and winter seem to start so much earlier in the west.

I’d think the thermal inertia of the upstream Pacific Ocean would increase seasonal lag, but that doesn’t seem to be the case.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Why is there an 80 degree day in there? I thought it was meteorological fall. 

Saturday looks like a perfect lake day... sunny and low 80s with almost wind at all.   ECMWF shows unusually calm conditions that day.   Then it rains again on Sunday.   We split the weekend.   

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Why is there an 80 degree day in there? I thought it was meteorological fall. 

The pavement is too warm for the fall to stick.

[Phil]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

The pavement is too warm for the fall to stick.

Nah, it’s all about rates. If the fall falls hard enough it will stick.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, snow maniac said:

Not sure the burn ban will be lifted here, barely a 10th inch rain so far still very dry here.only had one quick down pour out of the storm.

My guess is not quite yet. Rainfall was spotty with the departing event. As it generally is when convective precipitation is involved.

[snow maniac]

12 hours ago, ChristheElohim said:

From King 5 

No way my area gets that much. I still haven’t received more then a quick downpour.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We will never forget the heat of this August.

[smerfylicious]

15 minutes ago, Phil said:

I hate September so much. Wouldn’t shock me if 95-100°F sticks around beyond the fall equinox this year.

Will be living vicariously through you PNW people. Just like I do every year in S/O/N.

Just move over here already Phil. Then you can complain when it's 80 degrees with low humidity like the rest of us

[TT-SEA]

19 minutes ago, snow maniac said:

No way my area gets that much. I still haven’t received more then a quick downpour.

And the bulk of that was supposed to happen already.   This is what the ECMWF shows through Friday morning now.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Ended up with 0.73" total yesterday. Only a trace since midnight.

Currently 58.1˚F after an overnight low of 57.9˚F.

[Cloud]

Idalia got up to Cat 4 with 130mph winds overnight but then made landfall as a Cat 3 with 125mph winds. 5mph aint gonna make much of  a difference with the exception that it was "downgraded." 

[Chewbacca Defense]

Ended up with .41" yesterday, and .06" since midnight.  Not too shabby.  Currently 58 degrees. 

 

[jcmcgaffey]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

The air is clean again and forecasted to stay that way through the weekend.

Ya the forecast models greatly improved for this weekend which is nice. 

[LowerGarfield]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

06Z ECMWF shows the focus of the rain event tomorrow farther south.   In fact it shows partly cloudy in the Seattle area tomorrow afternoon.  

Also shows significant rain over the fire areas in southern OR and northern CA by Friday and Saturday.    Don't want to jinx it... but it seems like worst of the smoke is probably behind us for this year.  

 

Would be a big for Southern Oregon.

[Front Ranger]

5 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Someone should start a tropical weather thread.

Looks like Idalia briefly reached Cat 4 status, but made landfall as a Cat 3. 

[Front Ranger]

47 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Idalia got up to Cat 4 with 130mph winds overnight but then made landfall as a Cat 3 with 125mph winds. 5mph aint gonna make much of  a difference with the exception that it was "downgraded." 

Top wind gust of just 46 mph so far in Tallahassee. Idalia's core missed them to the east. 

Gainesville, the next decent-sized city near her path, has seen a peak gust of 49 mph. 

Perry, a town of about 7,000 people a bit inland, took a direct hit and measured a top gust of 85 mph.

[MossMan]

I can almost hear the trees and vegetation breathing a sigh of relief. Need more liquid, keep it coming! 
And 2 frogs watched me take apart some dog crates at work just a bit ago. 

[TacomaWx]

Didn’t realize the hurricane 3000 miles away was so relevant to the PNW thread. 

[TacomaWx]

63 here after a low of 60. We might just be a little too far north for the system moving in tomorrow for more than ~0.1”…but it looks like a few chances of rainfall coming up this week and next week. Either way we’ve been getting some beneficial rains in the PNW the past few days and that should continue! 

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Didn’t realize the hurricane 3000 miles away was so relevant to the PNW thread. 

Imagine how busy this place would be if a major hurricane equivalent windstorm were barreling into Seattle.  

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Phil said:

Imagine how busy this place would be if a major hurricane equivalent windstorm were barreling into Seattle.  

Probably a lot busier since it would actually affect the PNW

[iFred]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Probably a lot busier since it would actually affect the PNW

Did you watch my 9 hour video of a tropical storm 4000 miles away? Imagine if it was all snow and that that waterfront was Commencement Bay!

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Didn’t realize the hurricane 3000 miles away was so relevant to the PNW thread. 

Was kind of cool when Port Angeles Foothiller was on location in the path of the storm a few days ago, but otherwise it doesn’t seem like a very noteworthy hurricane. If it was a mega cat 5 that was looking to make a direct hit on a major city, then I would be tuning in a little more. 

[Phil]

Most of the trees in my Everett family’s neighborhood are these tall, skinny conifers that sway in the slightest breeze. Many houses sit right under them.

I imagine the next major league windstorm will drop them like toothpicks. Would definitely wear my helmet to bed on windy nights if I lived there.  

[iFred]

Moist morning.

The drive from Everett to Kirkland was very fall like.