November 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Clinton]

47 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

KC came within three degrees of a record high today  (at the airport).  Downtown, we came within one degree. 

Way to warm for this time of year, it hit 80 at my place this afternoon. 

@NWSKansasCity

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KC hit 75 degrees today which is 18 degrees above normal! We fell only a few degrees below the record high of 78 set in 1934

[Andie]

Front coming through Thursday. 63-49.  
80% chance rain some thunderstorms.  
‘Bout time!!

Saw and heard some geese fly over the house just before sunset.  They were beating the chill up north. 
That’s a good sign.  I love to watch them.  
when I lived west of Fort Worth they always circled over our property waiting for stragglers every Fall and Spring. 

Beautiful noisy squawkers.  Once the stragglers arrived they’d circle 4-5 times then the lead headed on his way.  
They would form their beautiful V and be on their way.  

Warm today. High was 85 here, repeat tomorrow, then rain and a chill on Thursday.   

[chescowxman]

A below normal November looks increasingly likely looking at the longer range models that take us through Thanksgiving week here in Chester County. Today will be a good 15 degrees chillier than yesterday and tomorrow will be 15 degrees warmer than today. Overall so far in November we have experience below normal temperatures. With the exception of tomorrow we should see most days over the next week continuing this chilly trend with below normal temps. Unfortunately, any rain chances look slight at best.

Records for today: High (76) 2020 / 17 (1976) / Rain 2.53 (1996) / Snow 0.8" (1927)

[Tom]

Happy Hump Day!  The Valley of PHX likely has seen the last of the 90's for the year as we put the Heat in the "Rearview Mirror" and LOOK forward to bountiful days of precip and Snow for the mountains.  Looking at the data this morning, I'm starting to feel more confident that a reversal in the wx pattern is heading for S CA/AZ region and eventually for those in the Plains/S MW states that are in dire need of Precip.  The weekend of the 18th/19th (Thanksgiving Week) shall be eventful for many of us on here...sharpen up those pencils and notepads!  How about a Good Ol' Colorado Low...Bowling Ball???  LFG!!

0z Euro...what a beautiful pattern heading for the Sierra Ski resorts and the Intermountain West...

 

Week 2...shall we start that Storm Train during Thanksgiving Week?  How about that Southern Stream JET??  

 

 

[Black Hole]

It was 85F here yesterday. A bit much for November lol

[westMJim]

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 56/39 there was a trace of rain fall. It was another windy day with the highest wind speed of 34 MPH out of the W. There was 15% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 51/35 the record high of 74 was set in 2020 and the record low of 16 was set in 1976 and 1991 (note 1976 was a weak El Nino and 1991 was a strong one) The record rain fall of 0.76” fell in 1916 the record snow fall of 7.5” fell in 1921 and the most on the ground also was in 1921 with 8” Last year the H/L was 52/34.

This morning here in MBY there has been at times heavy cold rain. The current temperature is 36 with heavy rain falling at times.

[chescowxman]

For you snow fans out there....of note here in Chester County PA we have only averaged a first measurable snowfall prior to November 30th only 43% of the time or 55 times with 129 years of records.

The longest stretch without a first measurable snowfall was the 9 years between 1941 and 1949 followed closely by the 8 years between 1970 and 1978. The most consecutive years with snowfall prior to the end of November was the 10 years between 1903 and 1912.

[jaster220]

Interesting map today/this evening. Just had a couple nice rumbles of thunder. This late morning featured some pretty intense rainfall with temps in the 30's. Could certainly have been a quick hitting front-end thumper during winter. Some bitter cold air mass just to the NE of Michigan was feeding into the system with high temps having quite a spread today from lower 50's along OH state line to mid 30's a couple of counties north of here. Now I see a pretty large snow shield a bit north in ONT. Won't take long before the real deal is setting it's sights on The Mitt. 

[Clinton]

22 hours ago, Tom said:

Happy Hump Day!  The Valley of PHX likely has seen the last of the 90's for the year as we put the Heat in the "Rearview Mirror" and LOOK forward to bountiful days of precip and Snow for the mountains.  Looking at the data this morning, I'm starting to feel more confident that a reversal in the wx pattern is heading for S CA/AZ region and eventually for those in the Plains/S MW states that are in dire need of Precip.  The weekend of the 18th/19th (Thanksgiving Week) shall be eventful for many of us on here...sharpen up those pencils and notepads!  How about a Good Ol' Colorado Low...Bowling Ball???  LFG!!

0z Euro...what a beautiful pattern heading for the Sierra Ski resorts and the Intermountain West...

 

Week 2...shall we start that Storm Train during Thanksgiving Week?  How about that Southern Stream JET??  

 

 

The GFS hopefully is struggling with the pattern change and the storm on the 18th.  The Euro is showing a strong storm, CO/LO that may even fire up a severe weather outbreak in my neighborhood, the GFS had this scenario just yesterday. Split flow

  

The GFS wants to make Black Friday white Friday for some,  just bring on the moisture please!

 

 

[westMJim]

It sure was gloomy yesterday with lots of clouds there were periods of heavy rain 0.67”. It was cool 44/37 windy at times highest wind 32 out of the E. There was a report of a thunderstorm. For today the average H/L is 50/35 the record high of 77 was set in 2020 the record low of 16 was set in 2003. The record rain fall of 2.53” was in 1966 the most snow fall of 4.0” was in 1894 the most snow on the ground was 7” in 1921. Last year the H/L was 59/36 and there was a trace of rain fall.

At the current time it is partly cloudy and 42 here in MBY. While the official rain fall amount of 0.67” was reported at GRR here in MBY I only recorded 0.52”

 

[Clinton]

A nice phase 7 look towards Thanksgiving weekend on the GEFS.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/OND/combined_image.png

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The GFS hopefully is struggling with the pattern change and the storm on the 18th.  The Euro is showing a strong storm, CO/LO that may even fire up a severe weather outbreak in my neighborhood, the GFS had this scenario just yesterday. Split flow

  

The GFS wants to make Black Friday white Friday for some,  just bring on the moisture please!

 

 

IMO, there are 2 systems Thanksgiving Week that should deliver moisture for your area and a wintry threat for those north of you sometime around Thanksgiving.  Isn't nice to track something during the Holidays?  I'll likely be seeing moisture late next week and into the holiday week as troughs begin to slam into So Cal/4 corners.  This is a bonafide pattern that'll deliver the goods!

Speaking of the GOODS, the JMA is showcasing what I've been yearning to see for our Sub and my place out in AZ....The Blocking up Top and a strong Trough signal into CA/4 Corners from Week 2-4 is a "Win-Win" scenario for both regions!  Winter is Coming out of the Gates just when you want it to...Love seeing this in the modeling as we close out NOV.

Lets see how this all plays out as I see several LR clues that we should be heading into a colder pattern heading into the start of MET Winter.  The one caviat is how strong of a SER will we see as the PNA could play a big role, however, the high lat blocking and pressure patterns along the coasts of North America may become a stronger player.

Week 2...

 

Week 3-4...

 

30 day precip anomalies...

 

 

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, Tom said:

IMO, there are 2 systems Thanksgiving Week that should deliver moisture for your area and a wintry threat for those north of you sometime around Thanksgiving.  Isn't nice to track something during the Holidays?  I'll likely be seeing moisture late next week and into the holiday week as troughs begin to slam into So Cal/4 corners.  This is a bonafide pattern that'll deliver the goods!

Speaking of the GOODS, the JMA is showcasing what I've been yearning to see for our Sub and my place out in AZ....The Blocking up Top and a strong Trough signal into CA/4 Corners from Week 2-4 is a "Win-Win" scenario for both regions!  Winter is Coming out of the Gates just when you want it to...Love seeing this in the modeling as we close out NOV.

Lets see how this all plays out as I see several LR clues that we should be heading into a colder pattern heading into the start of MET Winter.  The one caviat is how strong of a SER will we see as the PNA could play a big role, however, the high lat blocking and pressure patterns along the coasts of North America may become a stronger player.

Week 2...

 

Week 3-4...

 

30 day precip anomalies...

 

 

If the MJO can spend much of Dec in phase 8 it will be a fun ride!

[chescowxman]

Today should be our last mild day for at least the next week or so. Many spots across Chesco will touch the mid-60's today before another cold front crosses the area later. Mainly dry and chillier than normal weather should continue till at least the middle of next week with many of the higher spots in the county failing to escape the 40's for high temps for much of the next week. Unfortunately also continued dry!

Records for today: High 78 (1975) / Low 19 (1976) / Rain 2.04" (1962)

[tStacsh]

Next week looks fantastic to finish winter preparations.  

[Niko]

What beautiful weather we are having today w temps in the mid to upper 50s and lots of sunshine. Last nite a couple of rare thunderstorms moved into S MI. Very heavy rains we also reported but no severe weather. It was great hearing thunder again and seeing lightning. Reminded me of this very active severe weather season we encountered all summer. After a brief cooldown this weekend, next week looks gorgeous w lots of sunshine and mild temps w/ readings approaching possibly near 60F, maybe better.

[Niko]

2 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Next week looks fantastic to finish winter preparations.  

So looking forward to it. 

[Minny_Weather]

The lakes in West Central MN aren't gonna be frozen until January at this rate

[james1976]

Low 60s next week and then it drops back off to low 40s.

[jaster220]

16 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Interesting map today/this evening. Just had a couple nice rumbles of thunder. This late morning featured some pretty intense rainfall with temps in the 30's. Could certainly have been a quick hitting front-end thumper during winter. Some bitter cold air mass just to the NE of Michigan was feeding into the system with high temps having quite a spread today from lower 50's along OH state line to mid 30's a couple of counties north of here. Now I see a pretty large snow shield a bit north in ONT. Won't take long before the real deal is setting it's sights on The Mitt. 

There was a swath of 1" to nearly 2" qpf recorded at numerous sites a couple counties north of Detroit, such as here from Port Huron. Also, KFNT and Saginaw both recorded a "T" of snowfall so it must have been right near freezing when it started. Most certainly was a "sneaky" system to hit that hard and didn't get much headlines in advance. Those can be #funtimes when they happen in winter. 

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Niko said:

So looking forward to it. 

Autumn warmth without all the nuisance bugs is a wonderful phenomenon. And like you said, premature cold snaps do nothing here in SEMI anyways, so it's much better to save the cold for when it counts. 

[Andie]

Much of Texas is covered with a chilly rain.  More to come but trim off by midnight.  

55*, light breeze, heavy cloud cover.  
No rain expect after this until next weekend.  

[hawkstwelve]

It's obviously still a ways out but the EPS is showing some possibilities of a white Thanksgiving. 

[jaster220]

16 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

As with the cold push in late October, there's a massive, sprawling high pressure over the SE that seems to be impeding the westward movement of cold air that may come down around Thanksgiving.  Is that just a natural consequence of the type of patterns that bring down these cold fronts?  Or is it a distinct feature we just happen to be seeing so far this year? 

 

 

Guessing you meant to say "eastward"?? That looks like that nasty SER @Tom mentioned in his post earlier today.

[jaster220]

56 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

Fixed it. Thanks.  Yeah, second SE Block (that's what I'm calling them) to pop up together with a cold push.  That's two for two.  Can't help but wonder if it's going to be part of this year's LRC.

Yeah, and if so that's NOT standard Nino pattern. That's more a Nina thing, some times pumping the warm air just far enough north to make it rain in SMI when it otherwise would be a snowstorm. Fun times ahead. 

I see the QBO pattern developing that "could" lead to what JB termed "signals for some of the most severe cold waves on record" (I think he's talking mostly about the EC region when he says that but could be here such as one of the analog years of 2014-15. Feb '15 was all-time record coldest February in a lot of MI). 

 

 

[westMJim]

With 97% of possible sunshine the official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 52/40 there was no rain or snow fall. It was another windy day with the highest wind speed of 38 MPH. For today the average H/L is now down to 50/34 the record high of 75 was set last year. The record low of 16 was set in 1957. The most rain of 1.37” fell in 1988 and the most snow of 3.8” was in 2018 the most snow on the ground was 5” in 1921 Last year had that record high of 75 with a low of 52.

There was 0.02” of rain fall overnight here in MBY with clear skies the current temperature is 36.

[Tom]

On this day in history, 48 years ago in 1975, the Edmund Fitzgerald sank over Lake Superior... 

 

https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/wxwise/fitz.html

[CentralNebWeather]

Looks like most leaves are down, or very close to falling, as of this morning. Lots of leaf cleanup this weekend. Pretty boring pattern. Hoping some action starts during Thanksgiving week. Seems like the models are having a tough time latching onto how it plays out. 

[gimmesnow]

On 11/9/2023 at 6:37 AM, Clinton said:

A nice phase 7 look towards Thanksgiving weekend on the GEFS.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/OND/combined_image.png

Such a beautiful hard switch from above to below in like two days. Want to smash my record between snowboard and jet ski. My best is Snowboard on a Monday, Jet Ski on a Friday. It's a standup so I have to go in the water, but I Have a 5mm diving suit. There was still ice on the lake. Thankfully it stays warmer into the fall and takes longer to cool off, as opposed to taking longer to warm up in the spring.

Right before Thanksgiving would be a great time to start. If snowboard/ski season starts too late, you end up diving right into the holiday rush and the place is a zoo.

[chescowxman]

After a chance at least across Southern Chester County of some much needed rain today...a stretch of below normal temps will set in again today lasting for much of the next week before a warmup to above normal by next Thursday. Looking at the longer range from this point it looks like another cooling trend should start in by the end of next weekend and last through the Thanksgiving Holiday!

Records for today 74 (2020) / 16 (1973) / Rain 2.05" (1898) / Snow 0.1" (1987)

[MIKEKC]

A white Thanksgiving for KC per the 288hr GFS....lock it in!! 

Meanwhile, following some record cold late in October, KC has enjoyed some beautiful fall weather and temps Sunday through Monday Nov. 20th, look to be well above average with highs in the 60-72 degree range. May be a string of 70 degree days next week. I appreciate fall being fall, I'll enjoy it while it lasts. Plenty of winter time to get our snow fix. 

[Hoosier]

17 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Yeah, and if so that's NOT standard Nino pattern. That's more a Nina thing, some times pumping the warm air just far enough north to make it rain in SMI when it otherwise would be a snowstorm. Fun times ahead. 

I think you're going to have stretches that don't resemble what we think of as the canonical look for a given ENSO state... i.e. La Nina type patterns during an El Nino and El Nino type patterns during a La Nina.  That may be especially true this winter because as has been talked about, there's a big disconnect between ONI and some other measures wrt the Nino.  Also have the -PDO which is quite unusual during a Nino like this.

It's funny to say this because last winter was a Nina and this one will feature a robust Nino, but I'm pretty confident that I'll beat last winter's snow total around here.  Finished sub 20" last winter.  Never say never but I can't see that happening again this winter.

[hawkstwelve]

I'll take members 17, 18, or 27 if mother nature is taking any orders. Please and thank you. 

[Iceresistance]

OH LORD HAVE MERCY!

Look at the difference! That is THE Blue Norther!

[Madtown]

What's going on in here....Nov 25-27th first storm thread

[Black Hole]

A bunch of charts for fun. That was a 384-hour GFS run for the ages lol 

[Black Hole]

Even though of course it probably won't happen like that, the progression the GFS has is similar to many of our big snow events here historically so I am all for it. 

[westMJim]

With the first third of the month in the mean at Grand Rapids so far is 44.7 that is a departure of +1.0 the highest for the month so far is 62 and the lowest so far is 24. There has been 0.71” of rain fall and just a trace of snow fall. At Lansing the mean there so far in 44.0 that is a departure of +0.8 there has been 1.00” of rain fall and there has also been just a trace of snow fall there high and low for the month is also 62 and 24.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 50/34 there was no rain or snow fall. The sun was out 26% of the time. For today the average H/L is 49/34 the record high of 73 was set in 1909 and the record low of 18 was set in 1987. The record rain fall of 1.19” fell in 1911 the record snow fall of 5.8” fell in 1995 the most snow on the ground was 3” in 1933. Last year the H/L was 59/34.

 

[Tom]

19 hours ago, MIKEKC said:

A white Thanksgiving for KC per the 288hr GFS....lock it in!! 

Meanwhile, following some record cold late in October, KC has enjoyed some beautiful fall weather and temps Sunday through Monday Nov. 20th, look to be well above average with highs in the 60-72 degree range. May be a string of 70 degree days next week. I appreciate fall being fall, I'll enjoy it while it lasts. Plenty of winter time to get our snow fix. 

Enjoy the Indian Summer weather...a big snap back to Winter coming Thanksgiving week!  I got my eyes on a couple systems during the Holiday week.

[Tom]

The cool down has come out here in the valley and the cooler days and nights are noteworthy.  Hoodies and light jackets have been the theme and by later next week the mountains could see their first snows, although, it may be a bit to warm except for the Flagstaff area and the higher tops of the White Mountains to my East.  The local Met's are starting to get a bit excited tracking our first chance of precip in over 55 days.  Let's flip that script.

Taking a look at the 0z EPS...this is what the C Plains would like to see...