November 2023 Observations and Discussion

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 57/27 there was no rain or snow fall. There was 100% of possible sunshine. The highest wind gust was 18 MPH out of the SE. For today the average H/L is 47/33 the record high of 68 was set in 1990 and the record low of 10 was set in 1933. The wettest was 1.84” in 1989 of that there was 1.6” of snow. The most snow fall for the day was 4.1” in 1969 the most on the ground was 5” in 1974. Last year the H/L was 33/28 and there was 3.2” of snow fall.

Michigan weather history for November 15th 

1933: Michigan is in the grip of a four-day cold snap. The low of 10 degrees at Grand Rapids only rises to 18 degrees during the afternoon as lake effect snow showers swirl around and an icy northwest wind makes it feel even colder.

On November 15, 2018, a low-pressure system brought a rain and snow mix to far eastern Southeast Michigan while all snow occurred elsewhere. Snowfall totals of around 4.5 inches were observed in the Tri-Cities area while a general 1 to 3 inches fell elsewhere.

On November 15, 2005, a third powerful storm hit the area in just a week and a half during November 2005, leading to yet another round of strong winds. The cold front pushed through during the evening, leading to another period of strong winds, occurring through the early morning hours of November 16. Southwest winds were sustained at 25 to 35 mph, gusting to around 50 mph, with the exception of Huron County, where wind gusts were estimated near 60 mph. Trees were downed along the lakeshore from Caseville to Grindstone City. Heavy rains also occurred across the region, and the combination of winds and rain led to property damage estimated at 7.2 million dollars. One man was killed (indirect) and another injured (indirect) in a vehicle collision caused by a tree that had fallen into the road in Northern Oakland County due to the strong gusty winds.

On November 15, 2001, a mid-month storm brought winds of 40 and 50 mph and also brought the most rain in a day for the month with nearly 2.30″ in the Detroit area.

 

[Tom]

Cloud cover has kept temps from dropping much overnight as we typically see out in the desert.  Sitting at a comfy 67F and a slightly higher DP of 43F.  I can def feel the added moisture in the air as it has been WAY dry the past couple weeks.  Models have sorta backed down on the higher totals but the Euro still gives me hope for a decent event for the valley.  IT's coming in a few waves starting tomorrow and thru SAT.  Then, this storm heads East where I believe this storm becomes a large scale Arklatex Cutter up into the OHV/Lower Lakes.  IS this the Storm that snaps the pattern into Winter Mode??  I believe so my friends...Winter is knocking on the door.  Might be a good idea to put up the Christmas Lights and Decor this weekend.

 

[chescowxman]

It made it down to the mid-20's in many of the valley locations here in the county. Here in East Nantmeal we could do no better than 30.2 degrees for the low. Temps will remain slightly below normal today before rising to well above normal by tomorrow and Friday with highs in the low 60's. Colder weather will set in during the weekend and it appears the remainder of November and into December will feature below normal temperatures. We do have some rain chances by Friday night but amounts look very light.

Records for today: 78 (1993) / Low 16 (1905) / Rain 2.18" (1914) / Snow 9.5" (1906). That snowstorm in 1906 was the largest November storm in Chester County history. Some other area totals with that storm included Hamburg in Berks County with 6.1" and West Chester recorded 5.8" of early season snow.

[Niko]

NOAA:

@jaster220 @ClintonDoes this track sound familiar to ya amigos!! Ahhh, wish it was early December and just a tad colder.....

Passage of the Friday cold front sets up the weekend for below
normal temperatures, although with a consensus on dry weather
outside of a stray lake effect snow shower. Extended range models
continue refinements on the long wave pattern with some agreement on
confluent NW mid level flow from central Canada into the Great
Lakes. A few low predictability short waves track mainly north of
the area while reinforcing the supply of cold air. Model projections
start out next week with colder high pressure overhead on Monday
followed a potential Ohio valley low pressure system capable of a
rain/snow mix through the mid week period.

[Black Hole]

18 hours ago, Tom said:

You guys out East should be ready for a pretty Nice start to winter like we haven't seen in a number of years....Forget about a warm start to Met Winter, this is going to be a classic example of the main atmospheric drivers taking over.  The MJO especially is one of the main drivers and unlike years past, when the other teleconnections weren't playing ball, it appears this season most will play ball in tandom.  Synergy!

Euro Extended...nice rotation thru 7/8/1/2

 

 

 

JMA...

I did note in my seasonal outlook it looked like Phase 7-2 would be where we would spend most of our time this winter. Glad to see that holding at this point. Going forward if we see this wave die before moving into 3 and reemerge in 7 or 8 again it probably means we are in business. 

[Black Hole]

Looking at the next two weeks it looks like a wet but mild system (maybe some isolated severe potential) near Monday. We need the rain since its been dry for over 2 weeks now. Then there is that 2nd system you all have been talking about.

The general pattern is at least potentially favorable for that end of November period if we can get the model solutions where the ridge builds offshore. Although from my research we fair a bit better down here when the ridge has a positive tilt as that gives the cold air a bit of a westerly component. That can help it to really dig down along the eastern edge of the Rockies. At any rate, it could go either way, but this is our first real potential for some snow or ice. We will have to see how models trend. A note on the final image, the height anomaly map, its a blend of the two different solutions we may see. The trough would carve further to the west if the ridge sets up west. 

[tStacsh]

Northern stream is the one to watch next week.  Still many solutions.  So close to phasing, yet so far.  

[Black Hole]

For anybody in the southern Plains. This 12z run of the GFS yesterday demonstrates exactly how most of our big snow events happen. GOA trough flexes a positively tilted ridge just east of Alaska. Allowing cold air to dig south-south-west. Meanwhile a piece of energy undercuts the ridge and arrives at just the right time to phase with the SSW-ward trough. The trough then deepens and pivots allowing enough time to get the cold air south and spin up a reasonable surface low. Snow then follows northwest of the low. It also really helps to initially have some transient southeast ridging so that the storm moves northeast instead of straight east or even southeast. We see all of that here so no surprise it produces snow. This is a good conceptual model to keep in mind.  

[Tom]

25 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

I did note in my seasonal outlook it looked like Phase 7-2 would be where we would spend most of our time this winter. Glad to see that holding at this point. Going forward if we see this wave die before moving into 3 and reemerge in 7 or 8 again it probably means we are in business. 

It appears that may be the case as the Euro Ext headed back into the Null category at the end of the run.  All positive signs going forward.  Good call on the MJO.

[Niko]

Earth shooked in IL this morning...hopefully no injuries. A close friend of mind emailed me. 3.6 M.E. was reported. Its near the i-80 border or so.

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Cloud cover has kept temps from dropping much overnight as we typically see out in the desert.  Sitting at a comfy 67F and a slightly higher DP of 43F.  I can def feel the added moisture in the air as it has been WAY dry the past couple weeks.  Models have sorta backed down on the higher totals but the Euro still gives me hope for a decent event for the valley.  IT's coming in a few waves starting tomorrow and thru SAT.  Then, this storm heads East where I believe this storm becomes a large scale Arklatex Cutter up into the OHV/Lower Lakes.  IS this the Storm that snaps the pattern into Winter Mode??  I believe so my friends...Winter is knocking on the door.  Might be a good idea to put up the Christmas Lights and Decor this weekend.

 

Opposite this morning here as SEMI is the cold zone of MI. DTW hit 31F, and full 4F below the forecast from late yesterday. Meanwhile AA again the coldest regional NWS site with a low of 20F. Very heavy frost on the grass as well. @Niko's comment regarding November being cold(er). While we are running a bit AN so far, indeed the only dbl-digit departure to date was the -12F on the 1st. Yesterday was another "avg" day with 0F departure. 

[jaster220]

27 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

For anybody in the southern Plains. This 12z run of the GFS yesterday demonstrates exactly how most of our big snow events happen. GOA trough flexes a positively tilted ridge just east of Alaska. Allowing cold air to dig south-south-west. Meanwhile a piece of energy undercuts the ridge and arrives at just the right time to phase with the SSW-ward trough. The trough then deepens and pivots allowing enough time to get the cold air south and spin up a reasonable surface low. Snow then follows northwest of the low. It also really helps to initially have some transient southeast ridging so that the storm moves northeast instead of northwest. We see all of that here so no surprise it produces snow. This is a good conceptual model to keep in mind.  

That's a beauty map sequence. The larger Nov snowstorms for Detroit (to my knowledge) have had a different evolution, they were more W-E trajectory. Usually the classic track illustrated will bring up a bit too much warm air aloft and cause p-type issues, especially at the shoulder season of winter. Heck, we can struggle with that issue mid-winter here. T-day 1975 (yes that very hot November) there was a snowstorm that did come up the OHV track and even with marginal temps was able to leave a brief blanket of white at DTW. 

Also, you can see the nice swath of deep snow from a storm the week prior that hit @hawkstwelve's area in SESD.

[Hoosier]

3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

That's a beauty map sequence. The larger Nov snowstorms for Detroit (to my knowledge) have had a different evolution, they were more W-E trajectory. Usually the classic track illustrated will bring up a bit too much warm air aloft and cause p-type issues, especially at the shoulder season of winter. Heck, we can struggle with that issue mid-winter here. T-day 1975 (yes that very hot November) there was a snowstorm that did come up the OHV track and even with marginal temps was able to leave a brief blanket of white at DTW. 

Also, you can see the nice swath of deep snow from a storm the week prior that hit @hawkstwelve's area in SESD.

Do you have a link to those snow depth maps?  I'd like to make some.

[GDR]

I hope the gfs is on to something 

[Hoosier]

3 hours ago, Niko said:

Earth shooked in IL this morning...hopefully no injuries. A close friend of mind emailed me. 3.6 M.E. was reported. Its near the i-80 border or so.

Didn't feel anything here although I read that shaking was reported as far away as my area.  I did feel one in 2004, which was centered in a similar area as the one this morning, but stronger.  Was the damndest thing... the floor vibrated and I thought a truck or something hit the house.

[hawkstwelve]

Pretty decent improvement for a lot of folks on the 12z GEFS vs the 06z run.

[Tom]

I think tomorrow we start a Storm Thread for our 1st legit Winter Storm...albeit, prob more late in the game as models are latching onto a phasing GL's/Ontario...Beast???

[Niko]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Didn't feel anything here although I read that shaking was reported as far away as my area.  I did feel one in 2004, which was centered in a similar area as the one this morning, but stronger.  Was the damndest thing... the floor vibrated and I thought a truck or something hit the house.

Scary to be in one of those.

Tbh, I've never experienced an earthquake, but I can only imagine how frighten that  must be. I cant begin to express how and what I would do in a situation like this. My only guess is to just run outside.

[Clinton]

On 11/14/2023 at 1:26 PM, Tom said:

You guys out East should be ready for a pretty Nice start to winter like we haven't seen in a number of years....Forget about a warm start to Met Winter, this is going to be a classic example of the main atmospheric drivers taking over.  The MJO especially is one of the main drivers and unlike years past, when the other teleconnections weren't playing ball, it appears this season most will play ball in tandom.  Synergy!

Euro Extended...nice rotation thru 7/8/1/2

 

 

 

JMA...

Looks like the GEFS is on the same page as the Euro with the MJO in phases 7,8,1,2 and then back to 7 or 8.  Also several ensembles are showing a deep -AO and NAO as we get close to Thanksgiving.

BOMM also sees it the same way. The Next few storms will be fun to track.

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

I think tomorrow we start a Storm Thread for our 1st legit Winter Storm...albeit, prob more late in the game as models are latching onto a phasing GL's/Ontario...Beast???

Wouldn't that be an incredible thing?? 

See my post in Autumn thread, but yeah models are starting to latch onto an abrubt pattern shift, eh?

Gotta love the GEM, it wants to give mby 4" of long-fetch LES before it then brings system #2 through here with a nice synoptic blanket. Will be fun to see 100 different versions over time. 

[jaster220]

4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Do you have a link to those snow depth maps?  I'd like to make some.

 

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Niko said:

Scary to be in one of those.

Tbh, I've never experienced an earthquake, but I can only imagine how frighten that  must be. I cant begin to express how and what I would do in a situation like this. My only guess is to just run outside.

I felt the one that hit SEMI in Feb of 1986. Those that were in taller bldgs said it was very scary!

[jaster220]

@Tom

12z Euro - so close yet so far away on thermals

 

[GDR]

Lookin good!!

[jaster220]

25 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

Whoa. KC had at least an inch of snow on the ground continuously for 52 days.  From December 31, 1978, through February 20, 1979.  I can't even imagine that for KC.  

The golden era. You wanna see something outta the Twilight Zone? Check out the late-season comeback of the century during the 1959-60 winter out your way and especially KS.

[jaster220]

CPC outlining slight risk of high winds for Thanksgiving here.

[Clinton]

3 hours ago, sumweatherdude said:

Whoa. KC had at least an inch of snow on the ground continuously for 52 days.  From December 31, 1978, through February 20, 1979.  I can't even imagine that for KC.  

My parents still talk about that winter, we even had a 7 inch snow in mid April. 

[Clinton]

The GFS and CMC have a nice snowmaker next Friday and Sat along the I-70 corridor.  The Euro is not on board as of now the upper level flow fits for a snow storm in plains at that time.  Long ways to go so many changes I'm sure are on the way.

 

 

[westMJim]

Yesterday was a very nice mid November day with a official H/L of 59/34 there was no rain or snow fall. The sun was out 85% of the possible time. The highest wind gust was 25 MPH out of the SW. For today the average H/L is 47/33 the record high of 68 was set in 1896 and the record low of 11 was set in 1933. The record rain fall of 1.34” fell in 1909 the record snow fall of 5.0” was in 2009. The most on the ground was 5.0” in 1969. Last year the H/L was 34/29 there was 0.4” of snow fall and there was 3” on the ground.

Southern lower Michigan weather history for November 16

1959: A vast area of arctic high pressure brings record cold to much of the continental United States. High temperatures only reach the teens across much of Lower Michigan followed by record lows in the single digits on the morning of the 17th.

1989, a snowstorm hit Flint and Saginaw and it came to an end during the early part of November 17. Saginaw received 8.0 inches of snow while Flint recorded 7.7 inches.

1933, both Detroit and Saginaw had record lows on the 15th and 16th for Detroit and the 14th-16th for Saginaw. In Detroit, the temperatures were 10 degrees on the 15th and 8 degrees on the 16th. In Saginaw, temperatures were 11 degrees on the 14th, 7 degrees on the 15th, and 5 degrees on the 16th.

1932, a snowstorm that started late in the day on November 15 dumped 9.0 inches of snow on Detroit. This is the heaviest snowstorm in the month of November for Detroit.

 

[Andie]

8 hours ago, Clinton said:

My parents still talk about that winter, we even had a 7 inch snow in mid April. 

I was in Chicago when that hit.  Winds shook the house.  It was a big big storm.  

[chescowxman]

Lower elevation spots this morning again fell below freezing while here in East Nantmeal on the ridges we could drop no lower than 36.5 degrees. We should see temperatures today run almost 10 degrees above normal today and tomorrow before a sharp turn back to colder than normal to last likely through the remainder of November. Rain chances but not much rain increase Friday evening with the front...models snow up to 0.10" across western portions of the county but less as we head east bound. Looking ahead we finally have a shot at some beneficial rains by next Tuesday...fingers crossed as we need some rain.

Records for today: High 73 (1990) / Low 7 above zero (1908) this was the earliest single digit low temperature in Chester County history. Rain 2.08" (1928) / Snow 1.3" just 5 years ago back in (2018).

[Tom]

Ahhhh, waking up to the sound of light drops of rain coming off the tile rooftops onto the ground and the smells of the Sonora Desert from the Creosote Bush is something I've been yearning for a long long time!  Yes, we finally had a wave of rain that came through the valley earlier this morning, albeit very light, its a start in the right direction.  Dew Points have risen into the mid 50's and I can feel it in the air.  

The models struggled mightily with this system and continue to do so in the medium range.  Locally, the Euro run from yesterday's 12z beat the GFS as it was showing literally zilch last night thru this morning.  Now, with that being said, what happens next???  This is what is really fascinating and exciting for many reasons...Storm Thread incoming later today!

 

[chescowxman]

Well it is getting closer to that time of year for a snow history repost. So what are the largest snowstorms in Chester County history? See the top 25 below. Of interest...8 of the top 25 storms have fallen since the turn of the century in 2000.

[Timmy Supercell]

On 11/15/2023 at 7:28 AM, westMJim said:

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 57/27 there was no rain or snow fall. There was 100% of possible sunshine. The highest wind gust was 18 MPH out of the SE. For today the average H/L is 47/33 the record high of 68 was set in 1990 and the record low of 10 was set in 1933. The wettest was 1.84” in 1989 of that there was 1.6” of snow. The most snow fall for the day was 4.1” in 1969 the most on the ground was 5” in 1974. Last year the H/L was 33/28 and there was 3.2” of snow fall.

Michigan weather history for November 15th 

1933: Michigan is in the grip of a four-day cold snap. The low of 10 degrees at Grand Rapids only rises to 18 degrees during the afternoon as lake effect snow showers swirl around and an icy northwest wind makes it feel even colder.

On November 15, 2018, a low-pressure system brought a rain and snow mix to far eastern Southeast Michigan while all snow occurred elsewhere. Snowfall totals of around 4.5 inches were observed in the Tri-Cities area while a general 1 to 3 inches fell elsewhere.

On November 15, 2005, a third powerful storm hit the area in just a week and a half during November 2005, leading to yet another round of strong winds. The cold front pushed through during the evening, leading to another period of strong winds, occurring through the early morning hours of November 16. Southwest winds were sustained at 25 to 35 mph, gusting to around 50 mph, with the exception of Huron County, where wind gusts were estimated near 60 mph. Trees were downed along the lakeshore from Caseville to Grindstone City. Heavy rains also occurred across the region, and the combination of winds and rain led to property damage estimated at 7.2 million dollars. One man was killed (indirect) and another injured (indirect) in a vehicle collision caused by a tree that had fallen into the road in Northern Oakland County due to the strong gusty winds.

On November 15, 2001, a mid-month storm brought winds of 40 and 50 mph and also brought the most rain in a day for the month with nearly 2.30″ in the Detroit area.

 

11/15/2005 produced a powerful F4 tornado in Madisonville, KY. And coincidentally on the same date in 1955 I'm reading about another F3 tornado not too far from where that occurred, in the Evansville area.

[Timmy Supercell]

Yesterday was an impressive 45 degree spread from low to high. 72/27!

Reminds me what we would get more often on the east slopes of the Cascades. 

[Hawkeye]

The party is over after this weekend.  Mid next week will be a big slap to the face.

[Andie]

Heavy fog this morning.  53*
With a high of 67* today it’s not going to burn off fast.  Nice atmospheric day.
High tomorrow 70.  

[Iceresistance]

@Andie@Black Hole@OKwx2k4

[Timmy Supercell]

15 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The party is over after this weekend.  Mid next week will be a big slap to the face.

Wunderground is showing that here! 

[Tom]

Storm Thread fired up...Giddy Up!!!