November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Phil]

9 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

If the current analogs have anything to say about it, December has a great shot this time around.  A huge percentage of the top 10 analogs from the various model runs had nice December cold snaps regardless of ENSO.

Hard to expect anything from the second half of the winter as of now though.

I think we’ll have to break out of the -WPO/Scand trough pattern before Thanksgiving for that to happen. It’s only Nov 5th but important pieces of the puzzle begin falling into place over the next 3-4 weeks.

7 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

We'll probably see a semi extended cold/dry offshore flow period around New Year's. Usually a safe bet with a Nino.

Otherwise I'm feeling a pretty thorough end to end torch. Though Phil's recent bearishness almost has me second guessing.

Hey maybe it’s just weenie psychosis on my part. Wouldn’t be the first time I’ve considered jumping ship only for things to fall into place at the last minute.

5 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I was just looking at the CFS and shows us plunging toward a La Nina early next summer.  Strong Nino to Nina transition winters are often quite good.  This is the one where we have the highest chance of getting skunked IMO.  I still think the late Nov through late Dec period could come up with something good though.

The interseasonal fundamentals argue for La Niña, but the intradecadal fundamentals argue against it. I believe the latter will win out, but can never be certain. A borderline cold neutral/weak niña outcome wouldn’t shock me.

4 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

I think a read somewhere in a journal that climate change is inducing more persistent long term Nina states with Nino interludes

I don’t think I’d go that far. The IPWP has broadened which has projected warming in niño-4 relative to niño 3, which could be construed as a more “la niña” like, but much of that could be internal variability as well. Will need at least another half century of data to draw any statistically meaningful conclusions, IMO.

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Already getting pumped UP for the big La NINA next year!

Unless the upcoming intradecadal IPWP extension is delayed a year, there won’t be a La Niña next year (or a very weak east based one).

[NWbyNW]

Loving the rain recently.  The garden is so confused.  I got white and yellow roses still blooming as if it summer!  There are even still new buds to bloom!!  Other flowers are still blooming but on their last rung I am sure.  My indoor cacti for some reason and blooming to!  No idea what's going on, lol!

Hope all had a nice weekend!

[snow_wizard]

5 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

CanSips is showing it too. When was the last time we had a strong Nino that didn’t flip to a Nina? 
 

From what I can see you have to go all the way back to 1965-1966 to find a moderate/strong Nino that wasn’t followed by a Nina, and 66-67 looks like it barely missed qualifying as a Nina. The only moderate/strong event followed by positive ENSO was 1957-58 and then 1958-59 which is probably why Phil is smashing that analog so hard. 

I agree.  As early as this Nino set in and the strength of it, I think a Nina is pretty likely for 2024-25.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Some very heavy rain at times this late afternoon and evening. Closing in on .70” for the day. Over 3” for the month already.

Another disappointingly mild day with a high of 62. Early day mild temps and sunbreaks, but light to moderate rain moved in by about 3pm. 51 with light rain now, which is actually the low for the day. Hopefully today was our last 60+ for at least a few weeks.

[Cascadia_Wx]

30 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Loving the rain recently.  The garden is so confused.  I got white and yellow roses still blooming as if it summer!  There are even still new buds to bloom!!  Other flowers are still blooming but on their last rung I am sure.  My indoor cacti for some reason and blooming to!  No idea what's going on, lol!

Hope all had a nice weekend!

We had several freezes down here, so everything is pretty much dormant for now. Maybe you live too close to the water to have gotten that cold in late October.

[snow_wizard]

Probably time for me to go into why I was away for so long earlier this year.

A big part of it was major health problems and the deaths of close family members including my mom and father in law.  Also a number of other family members and a friend.  A really terrible year in that regard.  

In the midst of all of this the weather has become slightly less of an obsession for me, and I feel I might have more clarity on the subject than I have in a long due to it being a less emotional thing for me at this point.  We shall see how that plays out.

I also want to bring up the fact that the deterioration of my relationship with Jesse on here was also really making me depressed earlier in the year.  I really want to avoid all of that this season.

[snow_wizard]

37 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Loving the rain recently.  The garden is so confused.  I got white and yellow roses still blooming as if it summer!  There are even still new buds to bloom!!  Other flowers are still blooming but on their last rung I am sure.  My indoor cacti for some reason and blooming to!  No idea what's going on, lol!

Hope all had a nice weekend!

Wow!  I had 5 consecutive lows below 30 late last month.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Some very heavy rain at times this late afternoon and evening. Closing in on .70” for the day. Over 3” for the month already.

Another disappointingly mild day with a high of 62. Early day mild temps and sunbreaks, but light to moderate rain moved in by about 3pm. 51 with light rain now, which is actually the low for the day. Hopefully today was our last 60+ for at least a few weeks.

I was really surprised it managed to drop to 44 here last night.  It still torched during the day though.  Historically speaking November is not a bad time to be balmy...

[Cold Snap]

Had a high of 57 today and got 0.24” of rain.

[Gradient Keeper]

18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Probably time for me to go into why I was away for so long earlier this year.

A big part of it was major health problems and the deaths of close family members including my mom and father in law.  Also a number of other family members and a friend.  A really terrible year in that regard.  

In the midst of all of this the weather has become slightly less of an obsession for me, and I feel I might have more clarity on the subject than I have in a long due to it being a less emotional thing for me at this point.  We shall see how that plays out.

I also want to bring up the fact that the deterioration of my relationship with Jesse on here was also really making me depressed earlier in the year.  I really want to avoid all of that this season.

I'm very sorry to hear this, Jim.

[Phil]

Terrrrrible. I’ll need to find something else to do besides track the weather for the next 3+ weeks, because this is a total fest.

[Meatyorologist]

Unfortunately for us weather fans, we have a few months of weather coming up.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

43 minutes ago, Phil said:

Terrrrrible. I’ll need to find something else to do besides track the weather for the next 3+ weeks, because this is a total fest.

Plenty of good ballgames happening if you like that. Plus college basketball starts later today!

[Gradient Keeper]

Crazy amount of lightning offshore!

[Tyler Mode]

Over 4" of rain this month, on day 6 lol.  And a lot more to come for today it looks like.

Edited November 6, 2023 by Tyler Mode

[AlTahoe]

4 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

3' of snow for me. Oh boy it looks like the firehose continues this winter. 

[TT-SEA]

5 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Probably time for me to go into why I was away for so long earlier this year.

A big part of it was major health problems and the deaths of close family members including my mom and father in law.  Also a number of other family members and a friend.  A really terrible year in that regard.  

In the midst of all of this the weather has become slightly less of an obsession for me, and I feel I might have more clarity on the subject than I have in a long due to it being a less emotional thing for me at this point.  We shall see how that plays out.

I also want to bring up the fact that the deterioration of my relationship with Jesse on here was also really making me depressed earlier in the year.  I really want to avoid all of that this season.

Thanks for sharing... what a truly awful year.   I can't imagine having to deal with all of that in such a short period.   I am so sorry for your losses.  I can relate to what you are saying about weather seeming less important.   That began happening to me when my dad's health started failing.   Getting older definitely changes your priorities whether we like it or not.   And regarding your last sentence... it was his snarky mocking again and it was done without quoting you or having a conversation but rather in stand alone posts which he thinks are so clever.  

 

[TT-SEA]

Time change sucks... I normally get up between 5-5:30 so here I am wide awake at 4:30 now.   

[Deweydog]

5 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Probably time for me to go into why I was away for so long earlier this year.

A big part of it was major health problems and the deaths of close family members including my mom and father in law.  Also a number of other family members and a friend.  A really terrible year in that regard.  

In the midst of all of this the weather has become slightly less of an obsession for me, and I feel I might have more clarity on the subject than I have in a long due to it being a less emotional thing for me at this point.  We shall see how that plays out.

I also want to bring up the fact that the deterioration of my relationship with Jesse on here was also really making me depressed earlier in the year.  I really want to avoid all of that this season.

Sorry to hear this, Jim. Really seems like this was a pretty tough year for a lot of us. I can also relate to the weather kind of taking a backseat as far as it’s overall importance. It was pretty noticeable for a while this year, something that was a bit of an unnerving barometer as in the past it was always a healthy distraction when life kind of punched me/us in the jaw. This year was just different. 

[AlTahoe]

50 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Time change sucks... I normally get up between 5-5:30 so here I am wide awake at 4:30 now.   

Same with me this morning and the dog waiting for food. lol

[Skagit Weather]

The 06z GFS was pretty darn dry up here for the next ten days. I wonder if we're going to end up having another below average rain month after all. Currently 1.4" on the month.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Thanks for sharing... what a truly awful year.   I can't imagine having to deal with all of that in such a short period.   I am so sorry for your losses.  I can relate to what you are saying about weather seeming less important.   That began happening to me when my dad's health started failing.   Getting older definitely changes your priorities whether we like it or not.   And regarding your last sentence... it was his snarky mocking again and it was done without quoting you or having a conversation but rather in stand alone posts which he thinks are so clever.  

 

Was that last sentence really necessary?

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Was that last sentence really necessary?

Absolutely.   It clearly bothered Jim a great deal.  With all he has been through this year that also stands out to him.   Not sure if you remember but he was ruthless in his posts about Jim last spring.  Obviously you don't remember which is too bad.   It was 100% for the purpose of belittling Jim because he strongly disagrees with his views on climate change and his preference for dry weather.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Absolutely.   It clearly bothered Jim a great deal.  With all he has been through this year that also stands out to him.   Not sure if you remember but he was ruthless in his posts about Jim last spring.  Obviously you don't remember which is too bad.   It was 100% for the purpose of belittling Jim because he strongly disagrees with his views on climate change and his preference for dry weather.   

Hmmm… Jim’s post was much more graceful. 

[TT-SEA]

18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hmmm… Jim’s post was much more graceful. 

That is because Jim is a better person than me.   But there was no part of that situation that was his fault.   

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

Same with me this morning and the dog waiting for food. lol

Yeah my dogs have not been happy with me! 

[LowerGarfield]

Happy Monday. 47F outside.

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Happy Monday. 47F outside.

I REALLY want to tackle that sob for some reason

[MossMan]

Cloudy and 47 currently.

.02” so far on the day, 2.12” for the month. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1.37” of the wet stuff overnight. 4.73” on the month. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

7 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Probably time for me to go into why I was away for so long earlier this year.

A big part of it was major health problems and the deaths of close family members including my mom and father in law.  Also a number of other family members and a friend.  A really terrible year in that regard.  

In the midst of all of this the weather has become slightly less of an obsession for me, and I feel I might have more clarity on the subject than I have in a long due to it being a less emotional thing for me at this point.  We shall see how that plays out.

I also want to bring up the fact that the deterioration of my relationship with Jesse on here was also really making me depressed earlier in the year.  I really want to avoid all of that this season.

I understand Jim. For many reasons, 2023 has been one of the hardest years of my life so far. I‘m sorry it’s been such a tough one for you too. There are so many difficult things in this life that we can’t control. But there are others that we absolutely can. So at the very least, I would like to extend the olive branch to you and maybe we can work on being friends again.

[Cascadia_Wx]

So much heavy rain overnight, but now as day breaks, showers are moving to the north, out of the area, and the south winds have kicked in. It really has been a noticeable timing thing this month so far. At any rate picked up over an inch of rain overnight, closing in on 3.5” mtd.

PDX is now well above average for the water year to date, and quickly approaching average for year to date.

[Meatyorologist]

Beautiful gray Autumn morning. Radar looks nice to the south.

[GobBluth]

968mb low offshore Eureka at day 9.5.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

968mb low offshore Eureka at day 9.5.

Forgot about earlier starting runs... one nice advantage of falling back.   

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is not real wet over the next days... but also appears to be a generally warmer than normal pattern with troughing activity focused to the west and south overall.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

8 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Probably time for me to go into why I was away for so long earlier this year.

A big part of it was major health problems and the deaths of close family members including my mom and father in law.  Also a number of other family members and a friend.  A really terrible year in that regard.  

In the midst of all of this the weather has become slightly less of an obsession for me, and I feel I might have more clarity on the subject than I have in a long due to it being a less emotional thing for me at this point.  We shall see how that plays out.

I also want to bring up the fact that the deterioration of my relationship with Jesse on here was also really making me depressed earlier in the year.  I really want to avoid all of that this season.

Jim, my condolences on your losses. It will get better with time, just hang in there buddy. Once we get to track our first Arctic Blast of the winter I bet your mood will pick back up and you will get excited again. Just don’t get discouraged if it doesn’t happen until January but it will come eventually. I think mid to late January is going to be our best chance this winter. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Enjoyed the break the past couple weeks, but safe to say Tim has not lost a step!

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Enjoyed the break the past couple weeks, but safe to say Tim has not lost a step!

No idea what this means.   I called out what was a pretty ruthless take down last spring that appears to still bother Jim.    It is what it is.