November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

MODERATE RAIN

! 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er (4-run trend)

[the_convergence_zone]

36 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I’m at 600 feet right next to the Cascades and I still found last winter irritating. It should have been much better just on the sheer number of times it snowed. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen it snow that much and hardly amount to anything. 

I’m convinced there would have been 3 feet of snow in downtown Seattle if the exact same winter had occurred in the 1950s. So many storms that took perfect tracks for snow with pathetic arctic air masses that failed to bring the snow level down to sea level. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 hour ago, Kolk1604 said:

Words out...

 

 

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a EURO snow map show lots of snow for all of WA/OR in November ever. If you also believe in weather cycles then this gives this pattern stronger confidence considering we got cold in late October. Guys, this is the REAL DEAL!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 (4-run trend)

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

9.68 inches of rain for the month.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS, 00z GEM 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly. Really not necessary to post the other loops. Op runs tonight not there yet. Onto the GEFS, CMCE, and Euro/EPS later.

[lowlandsnow]

Devastating trends Winter is officially cancelled!

[TT-SEA]

It was dry here all day with filtered sun at times... quite pleasant.     It looks like it will be basically dry all week after tonight.  

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

To be honest I was thinking this would be the first GFS operational to hop on the cold train (excluding Thursdays 12z), and that did NOT happen. Now we wait for the ensembles.

[lowlandsnow]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GFS, 00z GEM 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly. Really not necessary to post the other loops. Op runs tonight not there yet. Onto the GEFS, CMCE, and Euro/EPS later.

It the low just making landfall farther north preventing the arctic air from coming south?

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[lowlandsnow]

7 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Devastating trends Winter is officially cancelled!

In all seriousness I do think it is concerning we haven't seen a good gfs run yet maybe it is seeing something the other models aren't.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

8 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Devastating trends Winter is officially cancelled!

Too much ensemble support in our favor right now. As @Phil said earlier, the GFS is always uber-progressive until the last second. Just gotta be patient, things will turn soon.

[lowlandsnow]

Just now, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Too much ensemble support in our favor right now. As @Phil said earlier, the GFS is always uber-progressive until the last second. Just gotta be patient, things will turn soon.

It concerns me that the Canadian also had the low make landfall farther north though

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

Anyone with experience with Amtrak Bellingham to Seattle? 

 

Our oldest is at WWU this year and we have a train ticket for them on the 21st. Pretty sure they will be able to make it, but trying to make reservations for the trip back up on Sunday the 26th. Should we put them back on the train or drive them back up?  

 

Assuming that the train should be fine if it snows. Not sure about transport between the train station and school, but figure WTA will have some buses running and it would be better than us trying to make the round trip even with 4WD. Any advice? 

[Cold Snap]

7 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

It concerns me that the Canadian also had the low make landfall farther north though

I feel like we should be fine as long as we still have ensemble support. It’s still over a week out anyways.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Putrid GFS run. 

[Tanis Leach]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Putrid GFS run. 

It is the garbage forecasting system though. 

[RentonHill]

13 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Anyone with experience with Amtrak Bellingham to Seattle? 

 

Our oldest is at WWU this year and we have a train ticket for them on the 21st. Pretty sure they will be able to make it, but trying to make reservations for the trip back up on Sunday the 26th. Should we put them back on the train or drive them back up?  

 

Assuming that the train should be fine if it snows. Not sure about transport between the train station and school, but figure WTA will have some buses running and it would be better than us trying to make the round trip even with 4WD. Any advice? 

Oh god our first travel plans decider for this storm. Be gone with this bad juju!!!

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Anyone with experience with Amtrak Bellingham to Seattle? 

 

Our oldest is at WWU this year and we have a train ticket for them on the 21st. Pretty sure they will be able to make it, but trying to make reservations for the trip back up on Sunday the 26th. Should we put them back on the train or drive them back up?  

 

Assuming that the train should be fine if it snows. Not sure about transport between the train station and school, but figure WTA will have some buses running and it would be better than us trying to make the round trip even with 4WD. Any advice? 

If it was actually snowing that much in the lowlands to impact travel then I would assume its worth staying home an extra day.  

[Kayla]

Definite walk back in the GFS ensembles. At the very least its been delayed.

[lowlandsnow]

WINTER IS CANCELLED WINTER IS CANCELLED WINTER IS CANCELLED WINTER IS CANCELLED WINTER IS CANCELLED WINTER IS CANCELLED WINTER IS CANCELLED WINTER IS CANCELLED WINTER IS CANCELLED WINTER IS CANCELLED

We will just have to hope that Phil is wrong and that next year will be an la nina. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

3 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Definite walk back in the GFS ensembles. At the very least its been delayed.

 

[Tanis Leach]

2 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

WINTER IS CANCELLED WINTER IS CANCELLED WINTER IS CANCELLED WINTER IS CANCELLED WINTER IS CANCELLED WINTER IS CANCELLED WINTER IS CANCELLED WINTER IS CANCELLED WINTER IS CANCELLED WINTER IS CANCELLED

We will just have to hope that Phil is wrong and that next year will be an la nina. 

There's always April. 

[Kolk1604]

7 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Definite walk back in the GFS ensembles. At the very least its been delayed.

That's fine. 

This model sucks and was demoted in the off-season. 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

If it was actually snowing that much in the lowlands to impact travel then I would assume its worth staying home an extra day.  

From what I've heard WWU doesn't close and it's right before finals. There's already the Hawks game and the Huskies game in town that weekend, and in my world that makes weather weirdness more likely rather than less. I'm fully expecting a windstorm and couple of rounds of snow just because it's going to make everything messed up. (Especially after my mom made "appointments" to go cut down Chistmas trees that weekend. Yeah, apparently that's a thing now?)

[the_convergence_zone]

It looks like this comes down to how the ridge building plays out over the Pacific from now until next weekend. There will be two PV anomalies by early this week — one digs north of Hawaii and the second one upstream comes flying off of Asia later in the week. 

In the 12Z Euro scenario, the upstream one is dominant and initiates the main ridge building event and the downstream one over Hawaii sends off one piece of energy that becomes the windstorm and the rest goes into building a big Alaska ridge that allows all that cold air to slide down the west coast of N America.

In the 00Z GFS, the two features never merge, the upstream one builds a ridge in the NW Pac and the Hawaii one builds a ridge in the NE Pac, and the whole thing quickly breaks back down into a progressive westerly pattern. 

I have no idea which will win out but that central Pac feature that will be north of Hawaii is the key to the whole thing. If it doesn’t get picked up by the stronger feature upstream, then the blocking won’t be enough to get a good cold wave down to us. 

 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

From what I've heard WWU doesn't close and it's right before finals. There's already the Hawks game and the Huskies game in town that weekend, and in my world that makes weather weirdness more likely rather than less. I'm fully expecting a windstorm and couple of rounds of snow just because it's going to make everything messed up. (Especially after my mom made "appointments" to go cut down Chistmas trees that weekend. Yeah, apparently that's a thing now?)

Seahawks game is actually on Thanksgiving... not over the weekend.    Both the Huskies and Seahawks played at home this weekend without too much weirdness. 

WWU would likely take into account major travel issues due to snow for students returning to campus after a holiday.    They might not close during a school week due to snow but if 4WD is required on I-5 on that Sunday then campus will be mostly empty on Monday.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Me watching the 00z runs tonight....

[Phil]

21 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Definite walk back in the GFS ensembles. At the very least its been delayed.

Yeah def more progressive over the NPAC, flatter prograding block gets undercut by the jet. Differences seem to stem from changes in Siberia & the Okhotsk Sea low fairly early in the run.

Crazy how important the pattern in Asia is for setting up the NPAC for a proper wavebreak. Small changes can lead to huge differences downstream.

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Me watching the 00z runs tonight....

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

It looks like this comes down to how the ridge building plays out over the Pacific from now until next weekend. There will be two PV anomalies by early this week — one digs north of Hawaii and the second one upstream comes flying off of Asia later in the week. 

In the 12Z Euro scenario, the upstream one is dominant and initiates the main ridge building event and the downstream one over Hawaii sends off one piece of energy that becomes the windstorm and the rest goes into building a big Alaska ridge that allows all that cold air to slide down the west coast of N America.

In the 00Z GFS, the two features never merge, the upstream one builds a ridge in the NW Pac and the Hawaii one builds a ridge in the NE Pac, and the whole thing quickly breaks back down into a progressive westerly pattern. 

I have no idea which will win out but that central Pac feature that will be north of Hawaii is the key to the whole thing. If it doesn’t get picked up by the stronger feature upstream, then the blocking won’t be enough to get a good cold wave down to us. 

 

Nice analysis.  

[RentonHill]

Oh my god we even lost the CMCE. It really is over!!! Oh god!!

[Meatyorologist]

10 hours ago, Doinko said:

Even some mixed precip with it

 

Storm King

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I thought this was a slam dunk.  A no doubter.  A No Question About It situation. 

It's fun to speculate and it could still happen, but this is why pro mets roll their eyes when they read our forums.  Though I still think they should just let us be instead of sending angry emails to Fred

 

[Cold Snap]

That was a step back with the GEFS but as long as the Euro/EPS still looks good I won’t be worried.

[TT-SEA]

Watching Office Christmas Party on TBS right now... impressively realistic snow scenes    I always hate the snow machine look in movies.   This one did it right.   Even had a brief shot of the news in the background and a weather map that shows a realistic pattern that would bring snow to Chicago.   

[Gradient Keeper]

18 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

It looks like this comes down to how the ridge building plays out over the Pacific from now until next weekend. There will be two PV anomalies by early this week — one digs north of Hawaii and the second one upstream comes flying off of Asia later in the week. 

In the 12Z Euro scenario, the upstream one is dominant and initiates the main ridge building event and the downstream one over Hawaii sends off one piece of energy that becomes the windstorm and the rest goes into building a big Alaska ridge that allows all that cold air to slide down the west coast of N America.

In the 00Z GFS, the two features never merge, the upstream one builds a ridge in the NW Pac and the Hawaii one builds a ridge in the NE Pac, and the whole thing quickly breaks back down into a progressive westerly pattern. 

I have no idea which will win out but that central Pac feature that will be north of Hawaii is the key to the whole thing. If it doesn’t get picked up by the stronger feature upstream, then the blocking won’t be enough to get a good cold wave down to us. 

 

Good stuff right here. Thanks for taking the time.

00z ECMWF has BEGUN!

[Cold Snap]

8 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Oh my god we even lost the CMCE. It really is over!!! Oh god!!

At least the ridging over Alaska is still there.