DECEMBER 2023 Observations and Discussion

[hawkstwelve]

The GFS seems to be running on the warmer side of its own ensemble guidance. The 00z run actually had a small amount of members that showed a steep drop to cooler than normal 850mb temps for around Christmas, especially when compared to the 12z run which had no members that cold.

Room for improvement down the home stretch? 

[james1976]

TC is forecasted to hit a potential record high of 48 Christmas Eve with rain. There is no snow in sight unless you're in the black hills. Nothing else of any significance. It's an awful pattern for midwest winter lovers and no end in sight.

[hawkstwelve]

Nice swing from the 12z run for colder Christmas Day temps on the 00z Euro. -12 difference in some spots near CentralNeb. More of this please. 

[Madtown]

Practice followed by 13 floods tonight. down to 4atm. Why can't this stick around!?!?!

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday was 38/28 there was a reported 1.2” of snowfall. The highest wind gust was 44 MPH out of the NW there was no sunshine. For today the average H/L is 35/24 the record high of 55 was set in 1895 and the record low of -18 was set in 1983. The wettest and most snow fall was both in 2008 with 10.2” of snow and 0.99” pricip. Last year the H/L was 27/22 and there was 6” of snow on the ground. Here in MBY I had just under one inch of snowfall yesterday and there is about a half inch on the ground this AM with a current temperature of 27.

[Tom]

5 hours ago, Madtown said:

Practice followed by 13 floods tonight. down to 4atm. Why can't this stick around!?!?!

This is an amazing set up and something the kiddos will remember forever....what a beautiful scene with the surrounding pines and snow falling!  Excellent job!

[hawkstwelve]

06z GFS also with a pretty dramatic colder change from the 00z run for Christmas. Almost with a -20 swing in some spots. 

[chescowxman]

After this morning's coating of snow today should see temps struggling to escape the 30's across most areas. The week leading up to Christmas Day should be near to a bit below normal temperature wise for much of the week before rising to well above normal (normal highs near 40 degrees) with highs in the upper 40's by Christmas Day.

Records for today: High 62 (1929) / Low +1 (1951) / Rain 1.30" (1934) / Snow 15.0" (2009). That snowstorm in 2009 helped deliver 1 of the only 2 White Christmases (other 2012) we have seen in Chester County in the last 14 years.

[Minny_Weather]

I think the only record that is in danger here in Alex is Christmas Eve. The daily high temp record is 45. The forecasted high in the grid for Sunday is.... 45. Turns out the Dec 24 record is actually a pretty low-hanging fruit across the state. 

 

Last year's temp on Xmas Eve here was +3*F, by the way.

[Hoosier]

Yesterday was the first below average day this month in Chicago.  Not much, only by a couple degrees, but still counts.

[Thunder98]

[hawkstwelve]

It's inching closer and closer with each run. Only a few counties away now...

[Minny_Weather]

5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

It's inching closer and closer with each run. Only a few counties away now...

Gone from the type of storm you'd expect to see in mid-october or late April to the type of storm you'd expect to see in late October or mid April.

[hawkstwelve]

A nice jump in the mean on the 12z CMC ensembles. 12z GEFS also had a similar bump, but slightly less.

CentralNeb and I are still in this!

[CentralNebWeather]

50 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

A nice jump in the mean on the 12z CMC ensembles. 12z GEFS also had a similar bump, but slightly less.

CentralNeb and I are still in this!

Riding the edge. 

[chescowxman]

I thought I would post an update on our streak of days since our last 1" snowfall. Through today it has now been 647 days or since March 12, 2022 that we last recorded 1" of snow here in East Nantmeal Twp. If we can get through January 3, 2024 without recording that much snow we will set a new record of 662 days without an inch of daily snowfall. However, for you snow lovers we will not be setting snow futility records for absolutely no measurable snow. That record will remain at the 661 days between February 23, 1972 and December 16, 1973. During that timeframe we recorded no measurable snow at all. Only trace amounts were recorded 2 times. By contrast since our last 1" snowfall here in East Nantmeal we have actually recorded measurable snow (greater than 0.25") on 9 different days. Including three such days already this season.

[Clinton]

12z GFS is much cooler in early January with artic air lurking. 

[bud2380]

Euro, most of this is rain.

And the snowy side of the storm. 

[hawkstwelve]

Iowa, Kansas, and NW Missouri now getting in on some of the day-after-Christmas action per the 12z Euro.

[hawkstwelve]

Love seeing these continued big swings towards colder (than initially expected) conditions for Christmas.

[hawkstwelve]

12z Euro keeps some precip hanging around for a while longer next week. This is snowfall just on Wednesday.

[OKwx2k4]

10 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Love seeing these continued big swings towards colder (than initially expected) conditions for Christmas.

Beginning to look a lot more like Christmas. Awesome. 

[hawkstwelve]

Really nice changes on the 500mb heights and 850mb temps between the 00z and 12z Euro.

Good trends today for just about everyone!

[hawkstwelve]

Sorry for all the posts and maps in a row. Just stoked we might finally have something more meaningful to track!

[tStacsh]

Euro would give me a top 5 warm Christmas day.  So if it's not going to snow, let there be warmth. 

 I was too young for 1982 and  it obviously won't be close to that 65 degrees, but  my Dad still tells me memories of that day.  They had a football game in shorts in the field next to my grandparents house.   He said it felt like a summer day.   Of course the next year the complete opposite happened.  

[bud2380]

Close up of Iowa on the Euro.

 

[bud2380]

Look at all this snow that just piles up on the 18z GFS as the low just doesn't move anywhere basically all week long.

 

[Clinton]

18z GFS puts down some snow for some on this run.  Colder trends.

[james1976]

Looks like a secondary low develops. Nice to see the Euro and GFS in agreement on this. Maybe something to track.

Local met says 50 is not out of reach for the TC on Christmas Eve.

[Black Hole]

Here is the 18z GFS extended showing the beginnings of the pattern change I've been expecting. Retrogression of the central Canada ridge and building heights across the arctic should result in lowering heights north of us (mostly past the end of the run) and cooler air spilling south. 

[hawkstwelve]

After seeing both the 00z GFS and CMC let's just say I sure hope the ECMWF has a better handle on things. 

[hawkstwelve]

Both the GEFS and the CMC ensembles show that their deterministic models are near the top of the respective 850mb temp range through the end of next week. Still room for improvement. 

[OKwx2k4]

7 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Here is the 18z GFS extended showing the beginnings of the pattern change I've been expecting. Retrogression of the central Canada ridge and building heights across the arctic should result in lowering heights north of us (mostly past the end of the run) and cooler air spilling south. 

Slow but steady. I think we're still headed for a good winter after Christmas.

When Alaska starts going warm and that trough breaks, it'll "slosh" over to us and hopefully lock in. 

[Clinton]

6 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

After seeing both the 00z GFS and CMC let's just say I sure hope the ECMWF has a better handle on things. 

This mornings GFS is favorable for ya.

[Clinton]

This is just an unbelievable amount of moisture for late December.  Bastardi saying that the EPO and AO go negative on the 31st so hopefully in January more of the moisture will fall as snow.

[Clinton]

@Tom has talked several times about a 30 day harmonic in this years LRC.  The upcoming series of storms looks very similar to what we saw in late November only warmer this time due to the +AO, NAO and EPO we are experiencing.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 32/26 there was a reported trace of snow fall. For December GR is now at just 1.3” and for the season just 3.2” both are well below average. There was 13% of possible sunshine yesterday. For today the average H/L is 35/24 the record high of 58 was set in 1949 and the record low of -3 was set in 1983. The wettest was in 1895 with 3.82” the most snow fall of 7.2” fell in 1951 the most on the ground was 14” in 1929. Last year the H/L was 32/21 and there was 4” of snow on the ground.

[chescowxman]

Lows this morning were still a couple degrees above normal with widespread mid to upper 20's across the county. We should see continued dry weather with near normal temperatures today a little below normal tomorrow before a nice warming trend through Christmas. Temps by Christmas Day should be in the upper 40's - normal high is about 39 degrees. Next rain chances look to be Christmas Night.

Records for today: High 62 (1895) / Low +1 (1942) / Rain 2.29"(1957) / Snow 8.8" (1966)

[westMJim]

The trend continues to lean towards a very warm Christmas Eve and Christmas day With highs in the 50's on both days.. While no records high are in the forecast the highs could be in the top ten both days.  In the last 10 years there will now be 8 years with less than a inch of snow on the ground for Christmas at Grand Rapids, in the past Grand Rapids has had a 65% chance of a white Christmas that seems like it has now changed.

Some weather history for Lower Michigan for December 20th

1923: A long stretch of balmy December weather continues with highs reaching the lower 50s. The low temperature for the entire month at Grand Rapids is only 18 degrees and no day has a high temperature below freezing. It is the warmest December on record for many locations, including Grand Rapids and Muskegon.

1951: Grand Rapids receives seven inches of snow during one of the snowiest months on record, with a monthly total of more than 50 inches of snow.

 1973, a two-day snowstorm dropped 11.2 inches of snowfall on Detroit and 9.5 inches on Flint. This storm ranks as the 10th heaviest storm in Flint and the 17th heaviest in Detroit history.

Weather history for this date around the USA

1836: A famous “sudden freeze” occurred in central Illinois. A cold front with 70 mph winds swept through around Noon, dropping the temperature from 40 degrees to near zero in a matter of minutes. Many settlers froze to death. Folklore told of chickens frozen in their tracks and men frozen to saddles. Ice in streams reportedly froze to six inches in a few hours

1929: An exceptional storm produced snow from the Middle Rio Grande Valley of Texas to southern Arkansas on December 20 – 21st, 1929. The storm produced 26 inches of snow near Hillsboro, Texas, and 24 inches in 24 hours in Clifton.

1977: A “Once in a Lifetime” wind and dust storm struck the south end of the San Joaquin Valley in California. Winds reached 88 mph at Arvin before the anemometer broke, and gusts were estimated at 192 mph at Arvin by a U.S. Geological Survey. Meadows Field in Bakersfield recorded sustained 46 mph winds with a gust of 63 mph. The strong winds generated a wall of dust resembling a tidal wave that was 5,000 feet high over Arvin. Blowing sand stripped painted surfaces to bare metal and trapped people in vehicles for several hours. 70% of homes received structural damage in Arvin, Edison, and East Bakersfield. 120,000 Kern County customers lost power. Agriculture was impacted as 25 million tons of soil was loosened from grazing lands. Five people died, and damages totaled $34 million.

 

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

This is just an unbelievable amount of moisture for late December.  Bastardi saying that the EPO and AO go negative on the 31st so hopefully in January more of the moisture will fall as snow.

I already looked into flying out to the Ozarks and the nearest airport is Columbia but there are no direct flights.  I'm trying to see what is better...fly in to STL or COU...hmmm???  I'm thrilled to see the pattern setting up, albeit, a little latter than I originally had through it would bc I originally called for the GOA to be gone by Christmas day.   +/- a couple days and that W NAMER ridge is firing up Big time...at least we won't be dealing with that ugly trough that hugged Valdez/Anchorage  in Alaska...see ya later!