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DECEMBER 2023 Observations and Discussion


Grizzcoat

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2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z EPS finishes off a pretty big collapse of this system on the ensembles. 

Now, this could be the models doing their typical pullback 5-6 days out from an event starting only to switch back a couple model cycles later. Certainly wouldn't be the first time - it happened earlier this season even. But as it stands now, most snow chances for the central US over the next 10 days have evaporated.

12z run from yesterday on top followed by 12z from today on the bottom. 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-central-total_snow_10to1-2468800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-central-total_snow_10to1-2468800 (1).png

Probably more of a Lakes/Ohio Valley system... if there is one.

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Probably more of a Lakes/Ohio Valley system... if there is one.

Yeah, was certainly an improvement here. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Well, the op Euro has made a big jump back northwest tonight.  This is probably as far northwest it can possibly go, with at least a bit farther south and east being more likely.

image.thumb.png.e2c3b54a3b96d34bc6061b1b3352526f.png

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season snowfall: 28.9"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The ECMWF does not show this as snow in Tulsa but that's nonsense. This would be a guaranteed multi inch snowfall for my area. What a beautiful set up. Too bad most guidance develops this further east and it never gets as strong either. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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A pretty typical early December week with temperatures below normal early week to above normal by next weekend. The next chance of rain will not be till Sunday.
Records for today: High 71 (1998) / Low 6 (1940) / Rain 1.54" (1900) / Snow 10.0" (1957)
image.png.29a98a5d89aae10da03f66c3f5d7f887.png

DISCLAMER: All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA. The data has been statistically validated (p <0.05) for this county as accurate for the period 1894 to Present. This statistical significance has been proven across multiple NWS observers and site changes across a <9 nautical mile area of Western Chester County. We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters.  Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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The official H/L yesterday was 38/33 there was once again a cold rain with 0.28” of rain fall and 0.1” of snowfall. There was a trace of snow on the ground yesterday at 7AM. There was no sunshine. For today the average H/L is 40/28 the record high of 65 was set in 2012 and the record low of 6 was in 1893. The wettest December 4th was in 1993 with 1.27” and the most snow fall was 5.9” in 2009. The most snow on the ground was 12” in 1940. Last year the H/L was 38/21. 

 

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Happy Monday!  It's another chilly morning in the upper 40's (47F)...clear skies allow me to see the gorgeous stars in the sky almost every single morning.  It's one of the small things in life I enjoy every day looking up at the stars.  Our community, Fountain Hills, is known for being a Dark Sky Community...there are a total of 201 across the Globe and Arizona has 19 in the state which is more than any region in the world!

https://fabulousarizona.com/arizona-best/a-guide-to-arizonas-dark-skies/

 

 

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Can you say this has been One Hellova start to the snow/ski season for the Rockies and Intermountain WEST?  It's been snowing for literally Daysss on end for the Rockies.  Some rather gnarly snowfall totals the past 3 days across WY/CO and UT...

 

Screen Shot 2023-12-04 at 5.40.29 AM.png

 

 

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Did the King Euro have it right all along?  Glad to see pretty much all Globals last night show some consistency for our next Winter storm...the question is, how quick can it phase, deepen??  Would love to see this storm bomb out as it tracks towards the OHV/Lower Lakes. 

My best friend for year's just arrived at Osage Beach, MO yesterday afternoon and did a video call with me showing the landscape of Lake of the Ozarks.  He said to me, "Does this place get snow?"  I had to chuckle and inform him that yes, it does snow and don't get used to the 50F warm weather bc you will be shivering in the snow later this month into JAN.  

0z Euro...not a bad run, ay?  This will be an interesting storm to track...

 

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I have opined that this storm will re-shuffle the pattern post 10th....looking at today's MJO forecast off the JMA and EURO, they are pretty much in same agreement that after the 10th, we head into the NULL phase and out into Phase 7 by the middle of the month which is the golden Cold phase for DEC.  The CFSv2 weeklies also agree....We shall See!

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Grand Rapids AFD talking about it already.   But obviously this could be anything still at this point.  A glimmer of hope for the early part of winter.   I will not be model watching though.  Outside of reading things here.  

Precipitation chances increase next weekend as a longwave trough
digs over the central U.S. and a slow moving/stalled baroclinic zone
sets up from MI to TX. Deterministic and ensemble guidance is
suggesting that a strong cyclone could develop along that baroclinic
zone and sweep through the GrtLks Rgn at some point late in the
weekend. As is typical that far out though there is considerable
spread with respect to sfc low track/timing/strength as well as
potential p-types/amounts.

Needless to say this will need watched because if we end up on the
cold side of that potential strong system there may be significant
snow accumulations while being on its warm side could support
locally heavy rainfall and perhaps some strong tstms.
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We had extremely dense fog overnight with a low of 20, which has made everything covered in a very thick coating of frost. Almost looks like it snowed, which if the models are to be believed, this might be the closest thing we get to snow over the next 10+ days.

Guess I should make the most of it and go outside to try to make a frostman.

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I don't know, looks like another warm December unfolding here in KC. GFS has a storm this weekend with borderline snow chances and the Canadian has a big storm with a colder solution. (Cold Bias model) After that, no real cold air locks in and we warm right back up.

Maybe things will trend colder here soon. Lezak not liking the idea of a cold December.

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40 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

 

Dec 2015 in the northwest wasn't bad but maybe it was a torch elsewhere. I don't see this month being an exact match to that one across the US.

It was very wet where I'm from even in places that didn't see snow.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 6
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 hour ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Dec 2015 in the northwest wasn't bad but maybe it was a torch elsewhere. I don't see this month being an exact match to that one across the US.

It was very wet where I'm from even in places that didn't see snow.

Dec 2015 ran +8 or warmer in the eastern 1/3 or more of the country, so mega torch indeed.  I'd agree that we won't repeat that magnitude of warmth this month.

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20 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Dec 2015 ran +8 or warmer in the eastern 1/3 or more of the country, so mega torch indeed.  I'd agree that we won't repeat that magnitude of warmth this month.

Winter 2015/2016 was probably  our worst winter plowing here  since 2008. But in January  2016 we put a plow in truck bed and drove to Maryland  and plowed to 30" to 45" snowmegeddon  for my wifes cousins  company!!!

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On the 12z Euro, the lead wave is slower.  That causes the second wave to travel much farther south and east before it can turn northeast.  That subtle difference is all it takes.

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season snowfall: 28.9"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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22 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

On the 12z Euro, the lead wave is slower.  That causes the second wave to travel much farther south and east before it can turn northeast.  That subtle difference is all it takes.

It's gonna change in track and intensity for the next couple days.   I'm trying not to look until thursday lol.   But I'll get sucked in especially with the latest Euro run.  

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Most ensembles show that after the few days of cooler than normal temperatures from the 10-13th, the Northern Plains enters another period with above normal temperatures.

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Looking back at year to date temperatures, ever since roughly the start of May we have been more or less running above normal throughout. One slightly cooler stretch to start July but really it's been a torch for the vast majority of every month since May. It'd be nice to flip the script on this trend but that doesn't appear to be happening anytime soon. Maybe January will finally be the month that breaks the camel's back.

image.png

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11 minutes ago, Chambana said:

Despite the Strong El Niño, winter seems to at least be off to a faster start than previous years, something to track this early is a welcome treat. Last year had the arctic front 3 days prior to Christmas with a wind whipped 1” snow. 

December can be a problem in Ninos (and it's been a problem more often than not in recent years regardless of ENSO state), but it's not always a warm/snowless disaster.  1972 is a good example of a strong/super Nino that had a colder than average December basically everywhere west of the Apps.  Remains to be seen just how productive this one will be, but I think it's pretty clear that it isn't going to be another Dec 2015 for our region.

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5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

December can be a problem in Ninos (and it's been a problem more often than not in recent years regardless of ENSO state), but it's not always a warm/snowless disaster.  1972 is a good example of a strong/super Nino that had a colder than average December basically everywhere west of the Apps.  Remains to be seen just how productive this one will be, but I think it's pretty clear that it isn't going to be another Dec 2015 for our region.


December 2015 was wild, remember it well. What a torch that was. Regardless of what happens with this system, a strung out mess or a major, it’s fun to have something to track. 
 

December as a whole dating back to 2011 have been clunkers, even the historic winter of 2013 featured a mediocre December. 

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7 hours ago, MIKEKC said:

I don't know, looks like another warm December unfolding here in KC. GFS has a storm this weekend with borderline snow chances and the Canadian has a big storm with a colder solution. (Cold Bias model) After that, no real cold air locks in and we warm right back up.

Maybe things will trend colder here soon. Lezak not liking the idea of a cold December.

I keep saying it’s going to be a warm winter with long boring stretches. The type of storms we had this weekend should be a sign of how winter will look (marginal temp profiles and lack of Canadian air)

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