Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 5, 2023 Report Share Posted December 5, 2023 GFS is no longer the only model showing a little lowland snow in the clown range. 3 1 1 1 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 5, 2023 Report Share Posted December 5, 2023 I was out earlier, so couldn't run the 00z's tonight. I can post re-caps if you'd like? Okay sure. 00z GFS re-cap. 10 Day GIFs: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temps, 1000-500mb Thickness/MSLP/Precip A surprisingly decent run. Yeah. Day 1-6. It will be wet. Very wet. Sort of wet. Then wet again. Air mass cools nicely after the AR for some mountain snow. Day 6+ Strong ridge building and this allows a decent cold shot to sneak back into eastern Washington and through the Gorge. This results in strong east winds, probably the strongest of the fall season. The pattern progression Day 4.5 to 7 does seem rather plausible, so maybe this pans out. Day 8+ an active pattern may resume long range. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 5, 2023 Report Share Posted December 5, 2023 22 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said: Will need high temps in the teens for two weeks in order to offset this warmth. There will be highs in the teens this winter. In degrees Celsius. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 5, 2023 Report Share Posted December 5, 2023 These temps are just wrong and pretty sad for the time of year. Already missing our fake cold from last week and looking at all the Christmas lights with the heavy frost everywhere. 5 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 5, 2023 Report Share Posted December 5, 2023 18 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Fukin tired of this . El Niño/+IOD in the drivers seat. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 5, 2023 Report Share Posted December 5, 2023 00z GFS 7 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 5, 2023 Report Share Posted December 5, 2023 00z ECMWF re-cap. 10 Day GIFs: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temps, 1000-500mb Thickness/MSLP/Precip This run also was rather interesting. A bit wetter than the GFS. There is some suggestion that we could see very low snow levels Saturday morning, but I'm not buying it. Strong ridge builds offshore oriented slightly different, so the cold air sliding south out of Canada only gives us a glancing blow. It still results in several days gusty to strong east wind. Long range is more uncertain with a ridge lingering over us. If only that ridge were not so transitory and anchored itself offshore. Although not likely should that occur much colder air could possibly spill back into eastern Washington. Maybe something to keep an eye on. This looks like a classic Columbia Basin cold pool pattern as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 5, 2023 Report Share Posted December 5, 2023 00z ECMWF 7-Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 5, 2023 Report Share Posted December 5, 2023 Pretty crazy how orographically-dependent this system is. The east side hasn’t even mixed out yet despite the raging SW’erly flow. 2 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 5, 2023 Report Share Posted December 5, 2023 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: Pretty crazy how orographically-dependent this system is. The east side hasn’t even mixed out yet despite the raging SW’erly flow. The warm sector has been extremely impressive. 6z GFS in 1 hour 23 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 5, 2023 Report Share Posted December 5, 2023 33 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said: Will need high temps in the teens for two weeks in order to offset this warmth. We're only talking a couple of days of warmth like this. One day with a high in the teens would offset a few days like this. We just finished a pretty chilly November. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 5, 2023 Report Share Posted December 5, 2023 1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said: The warm sector has been extremely impressive. 6z GFS in 1 hour 23 minutes Stuff like this in the winter very often leads to cold later. Very 1990 ish vibe. That year has been coming up in the analogs quite a bit. 1 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 5, 2023 Report Share Posted December 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: We're only talking a couple of days of warmth like this. One day with a high in the teens would offset a few days like this. We just finished a pretty chilly November. Phil's been talking about near constant warmth for the CONUS recently, but the last couple weeks were actually pretty chilly for the majority of the nation. And it looks like once we get through the next few days, that may resume. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 5, 2023 Report Share Posted December 5, 2023 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: Stuff like this in the winter very often leads to cold later. Very 1990 ish vibe. That year has been coming up in the analogs quite a bit. Massive -PNA wave breakapalooza ain’t happening this year, but I suspect the end of this month is gonna be fake and fabulous. 1 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tanis Leach Posted December 5, 2023 Report Share Posted December 5, 2023 I question whether PDX will get down below 60 tonight. 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowySeeker50 Posted December 5, 2023 Report Share Posted December 5, 2023 Currently 57f and light rain. High of 62 and .84" total for yesterday 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 5, 2023 Report Share Posted December 5, 2023 2.5” here yesterday and 0.12” since midnight. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 5, 2023 Report Share Posted December 5, 2023 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: Massive -PNA wave breakapalooza ain’t happening this year, but I suspect the end of this month is gonna be fake and fabulous. I can see it now... a subfreezing high on Christmas for KSEA with freezing fog reported during all hours of the day, with the exception of all hours after 8pm due to a damaging buildup of rime ice. A broad 602dam ridge sits centered right over Jesse's house. Paradise hits 76F. Andrew's residence happens to spire a couple hundred feet above the inversion and kisses 81F amidst a roaring east wind and a sweeping view of the stratus sea below. He is also high enough to hear god laugh. 2 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 5, 2023 Report Share Posted December 5, 2023 8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: I can see it now... a subfreezing high on Christmas for KSEA with freezing fog reported during all hours of the day, with the exception of all hours after 8pm due to a damaging buildup of rime ice. A broad 602dam ridge sits centered right over Jesse's house. Paradise hits 76F. Andrew's residence happens to spire a couple hundred feet above the inversion and kisses 81F amidst a roaring east wind and a sweeping view of the stratus sea below. He is also high enough to hear god laugh. And somehow Randy will end up with 14” of snow. 2 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 5, 2023 Report Share Posted December 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, Deweydog said: And somehow Randy will end up with 14” of snow. All inversion snizzle 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted December 5, 2023 Report Share Posted December 5, 2023 Managed to get 1.22” of rain today. Picked up another 0.15” since midnight. Already up to 2.55” for the month so far. 1 Quote 2024 Warm Season Stats Number of 80+ days - 2 Number of 85+ days - 2 (Warmest so far - 86) Number of 90+ days - 0 Number of 95+ days - 0 Number of 60+ lows - 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 5, 2023 Author Report Share Posted December 5, 2023 57F and cloudy. Hot start to December. 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowySeeker50 Posted December 5, 2023 Report Share Posted December 5, 2023 https://twitter.com/NWSSeattle/status/1731964695077347578?s=20 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 5, 2023 Author Report Share Posted December 5, 2023 Looks like a pretty uniform low 60s December nightmare at most of the Willamette Valley stations right now. Was yesterday like a +20F burger departure? 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowySeeker50 Posted December 5, 2023 Report Share Posted December 5, 2023 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 5, 2023 Report Share Posted December 5, 2023 Current PWAT 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 5, 2023 Report Share Posted December 5, 2023 Night Shift 6z GFS, Day 6 back that ridge a bit and we see a real cold shot into eastern Washington. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 5, 2023 Report Share Posted December 5, 2023 Crazy that pdx hit 67. The rain has finally arrived here and it’s already pouring hard. Should be some impressive totals for the day around Portland. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 5, 2023 Report Share Posted December 5, 2023 11 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: Crazy that pdx hit 67. The rain has finally arrived here and it’s already pouring hard. Should be some impressive totals for the day around Portland. Jeez Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted December 5, 2023 Report Share Posted December 5, 2023 Hit 64 after 11 PM last night, very impressive. Already over a half inch of rain today here. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ken in Wood Village Posted December 5, 2023 Report Share Posted December 5, 2023 Be careful when driving to work. There is a lot of standing water on the roadways. If you are taking i-84 in, there is an accident. Be careful. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted December 5, 2023 Report Share Posted December 5, 2023 Have been here for 26 hours now treating water…lol 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 5, 2023 Report Share Posted December 5, 2023 Looks like the Grays is at major flood stage already-- with more rain to come over the next 12 hours 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted December 5, 2023 Report Share Posted December 5, 2023 1.29 yesterday and .79 since midnight. 58 degrees. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted December 5, 2023 Report Share Posted December 5, 2023 I have to drive to Seattle this morning. Thoughts and prayers accepted. 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnarkyGoblin Posted December 5, 2023 Report Share Posted December 5, 2023 34 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: Have been here for 26 hours now treating water…lol Is that....legal? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 5, 2023 Report Share Posted December 5, 2023 0.51" since midnight, 3.31" storm total. 50.0˚F. 5.46" for the month so far. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 5, 2023 Report Share Posted December 5, 2023 Looks like its going to go right back to drier than normal. This the 10-day anomaly starting that period tomorrow morning (days 1-11). December 2015 stayed wet for most of the month. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted December 5, 2023 Report Share Posted December 5, 2023 1.01" so far today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted December 5, 2023 Report Share Posted December 5, 2023 Love the rain shadow on the Olympic peninsula. Closing in on 4" month to date at my house. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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