January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[van city]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Dr. No is running..

Thank you Dr. Phil 

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Noooo. What do expect, watered down version of gem and gfs? It must cave somewhat

I have no idea. WAG it meets 25-30% of the way for D7-8 trough. But wouldn’t bet on it.

[Dave]

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

If the ECMWF looks like the other models....Oh boy!

Do you think the current MJO wave could be playing into this?

The ongoing stratwarm is slowing+amplifying the MJO via accelerating the BDC/cooling+raising the tropical tropopause.

Even though it’s not a full blown wind reversal/SSW, it’s possible it could affect the tropical forcing at just the right time to perturb the pattern. But that’s only one component, of course.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Y’all gunna lose your minds if the Euro follows suit. Im here for it.

[Doinko]

Day 1

[Front Ranger]

Just now, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Y’all gunna lose your minds if the Euro follows suit. Im here for it.

I have the new 468 hour beta version. Want some?

[Kolk1604]

GEFS is snowy again 

[Phishy Wx]

8 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Kunyu model.  No joke BTW.

WTF is that?

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

I have the new 468 hour beta version. Want some?

My sponsor said no

[BLI snowman]

Whatever Fred did blacking out the forum for a couple hours before the 00z runs seemed to have done the trick.

Fred, keep doing it.

[Doinko]

Day 2

[Kolk1604]

End of the 00z ICON 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Whatever Fred did blacking out the forum for a couple hours before the 00z runs seemed to have done the trick.

Fred, keep doing it.

Who’s to say that won’t reverse it?

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

End of the 00z ICON 

The theme of the night.

[Phishy Wx]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Whatever Fred did blacking out the forum for a couple hours before the 00z runs seemed to have done the trick.

Fred, keep doing it.

Fred hacked the GFS

[Blizzard777]

19 minutes ago, Phil said:

Where are Tiger and Rob? 2 night shift people AWOL after the drunkest GFS run in years.

 

14 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Where is @TT-SEA ?

They probably think the forum is still offline.  Refreshing the page didn’t work for me. Hopefully they figure it out to just close the tabs. 

 

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

End of the 00z ICON 

The 0z model suite so far is easily the best agreement we've had on a robust GOA block within 10 days.

[Doinko]

Day 3

[snow_wizard]

Just to clarify...the 12z GEM Ensemble was trash, and the 0z is awesome.

Also worth noting the 12z ICON was meh.  This run is much better.

[Kolk1604]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Just to clarify...the 12z GEM Ensemble was trash, and the 0z is awesome.

Also worth noting the 12z ICON was meh.  This run is much better.

Yeah the run to run change on the GEM/GEPS is pretty impressive. 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Fred hacked the GFS

He may have actually done a reset on Mother Nature herself.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Not my photo btw

[Front Ranger]

9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Whatever Fred did blacking out the forum for a couple hours before the 00z runs seemed to have done the trick.

Fred, keep doing it.

Everyone on here needs to do exactly what they did today during those two hours for the next week and we should be good to go.

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Everyone on here needs to do exactly what they did today during those two hours for the next week and we should be good to go.

I cooked dinner, I see a lot of cooking in my future

[Phil]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Just to clarify...the 12z GEM Ensemble was trash, and the 0z is awesome.

Also worth noting the 12z ICON was meh.  This run is much better.

But…the clown range 00z GEFS was the warmest yet. Nothing like the operational run. Watch the RWB D5-6.

[FroYoBro]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Everyone on here needs to do exactly what they did today during those two hours for the next week and we should be good to go.

I killed a man

[SpaceRace22]

13 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Whatever Fred did blacking out the forum for a couple hours before the 00z runs seemed to have done the trick.

Fred, keep doing it.

Can you imagine if it had still been down during the 00z run itself? The horror.

[SouthHillFrosty]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

But…the clown range 00z GEFS was the warmest yet. Nothing like the operational run. Watch the RWB D5-6.

Wdym? I have no idea what the RWB 5-6 means but colors look good.

Update: Didn't realize this was run to run changes my b

Edited January 3 by SouthHillFrosty

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

I cooked dinner, I see a lot of cooking in my future

I had sex with my gf then took a (positive) covid test.

If I test negative tomorrow will that undo everything?  

[Doinko]

Day 4

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Wdym? I have no idea what the RWB 5-6 means but colors look good

Yeah i'm confused too. Snowiest run i've seen 

[Dave]

41 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

What we saw in Feb(?) Was pretty much the limit of plausible snow in extreme events for CA. This map won't verify there. But in an extreme event you can see snow in places like Red Bluff / Cottonwood or Auburnm, CA and down to sea level in Eureka (I only know of that event and maybe one other). I mean you had accumulating snow in Oakland, my home town at about 2k ft. Insane.

There was a couple of inches of snow at the Pebble Beach golf tournament in the 60's. They had to postpone it for a few hours until it melted.

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Wdym? I have no idea what the RWB 5-6 means but colors look good

I’m talking long range (when the operational GFS is at its craziest).

No doubt D5-10 improved (which matters more).

[Blizzard777]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

He may have actually done a reset on Mother Nature herself.

Dang to think all January needed was a hard reboot 
 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, Phil said:

I’m talking long range. When the operational GFS is at its craziest.

No doubt D5-10 improved (which matters more).

Ah got u. Hard to quantify what long range since every is long range after five days but I totally get what u are leading to. What does RWB mean?

[Cold Snap]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Wdym? I have no idea what the RWB 5-6 means but colors look good.

Update: Didn't realize this was run to run changes my b

Yeah the run to run change is insane even at the 850mb level.

[Snownerd3000]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

He may have actually done a reset on Mother Nature herself.

@iFredyou got any pointers? For science. 

 

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Ah got u. Hard to quantify what long range since every is long range after five days but I totally get what u are leading to. What does RWB mean?

Rossby wave break.

[Doinko]

Day 5