Still all playing out like '19, '20, and '21.
Try a mental exercise, close your eyes.
Think of cold, snow, a wintery landscape. Think of the cityscapes of Vancouver, Seattle, Portland, and Eugene, and picture them with just globs of snow heaped over them. Keep your eyes closed and imagine maps filled with those pepto pinks and purples. Imagine that arctic air spilling over Vancouver Island and making its way back to Washington and Oregon. Imagine regional blizzard warnings and snow cov
Yeah, the delta on Monday will be telling with Graphcast and Spire. People forget (or don't know) that both models only work off of initialization data and then use various degrees of image based machine learning at very high terrain definitions. Its effectively taking those analog lists to the next level. This means though that there is no real condition modeling taking place, but rather a "I think this feature will develop here because it typically does when these patterns at these levels are
I'd be fine with it comitting full zonal, but a big part of me was looking forward to the thunderstorm potential on the back end of the ridge. I was willing to endure a day or two of 90F weather for that. The 00z still sort of has some convection but it's really marginal.
Could be flirting with 90 at ORD on Tuesday. I'd give it about a 35% chance at this point. Record high is 92.
Fun fact... from May 14 through October 4, every daily record high for Chicago is over 90 degrees.
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