January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Phil]

The goofus is running

[Front Ranger]

21 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Gotta pad the stats, otherwise we could end up with a below average January and that's impossible these days.

SEA had one in 2022...

[Weiner Warrior]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

The goofus is running

It already looks better

[Phil]

18z ICON is definitely on team goofus.

[MikeInEverett]

12 minutes ago, iFred said:

 

Who?

I lost it and you can’t view quote tweets anymore but saw a few people that are pretty upset about Ryan Maue’s tweet. Other than lot just a lot of rumblings and people saying to not believe the models, which is fair but adding an extra point to be prepared or to keep the possibilities in mind just in case is probably a good idea too.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Up to 52F here. Another warm day.

[Slushy Inch]

23 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Cliff's model is not onboard.

They should work on a specialized version of the euro instead of trying to polish a turd.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, High Desert Mat? said:

Salem didn’t get below 0 during the winter of ‘13-‘14 when Eugene hit -10? That same year Redmond hit -27 twice I believe. Once in Dec and once in Feb. 

I think they got down to 8. No snow on the ground. 

Edited January 4 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Winterdog]

Ya think the 12Z Euro was an outlier?

 

 

[Doinko]

Analogs look great

[SnowWillarrive]

Cliff Mass onboard. 
 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Winterdog said:

Ya think the 12Z Euro was an outlier?

 

 

Yes, and no. It's no like it's out there on it's own. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Cliff Mass onboard. 
 

Only thing He's onboard is the crazy train!

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Cliff Mass onboard. 
 

Is Cliff a troll? He says Euro is similar to gfs minus convergence zone snow

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Is Cliff a troll? He says Euro is similar to gfs minus convergence zone snow

no, he's a moron though

[Winterdog]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yes, and no. It's no like it's out there on it's own. 

Right, it does have the control as a roommate but it is on the fringe for sure.  I hope it holds on to this new take.

[Snownerd3000]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

crazy train!

https://music.youtube.com/watch?v=hQ_Z-10dXSE&si=jwm2gbV2xBplDxVi

Ozzy was into the occult right? Maybe? Name of the album... BLIZZARD of Ozz.  What is the other name for Seattle?  The Emerald City.  Its coming.  

 

And for all you youngsters with your rap music, it was sampled here

 

https://music.youtube.com/watch?v=D0sjCgS7vi8

[Mid Valley Duck]

10 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

Ya think the 12Z Euro was an outlier?

 

 

At hour 204 for Portland, the Op is at -14c, there are 5 members colder than the op. There are 16 of 50 ensemble members that are -10c or lower at that time. It's not an outlier until the last 12 hours of the run, when it and the control are the two coldest members. There is a significant camp that gets cold. So let's not pretend it's on it own out there.

[Slushy Inch]

Better blocking

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Mid Valley Duck said:

At hour 204 for Portland, the Op is at -14c, there are 5 members colder than the op. There are 16 of 50 ensemble members that are -10c or lower at that time. It's not an outlier until the last 12 hours of the run, when it and the control are the two coldest members. There is a significant camp that gets cold. So let's not pretend it's on it own out there.

I agree with this. 

[Slushy Inch]

Solid shift towards euro so far

[Mercurial]

starting to look wintry again

 

[Dave]

I step away from the forum for a day and half and there are 90 new pages? What in the flying **** is fappening. Is it coming?

[Mid Valley Duck]

GFS is struggling as a model. Pretty significant changes at day 5.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Dave said:

I step away from the forum for a day and half and there are 90 new pages? What in the flying **** is fappening. Is it coming?

Why would you ever step away?

[Mercurial]

Just now, Dave said:

I step away from the forum for a day and half and there are 90 new pages? What in the flying **** is fappening. Is it coming?

All of us, to the medium range euro.

[Requiem]

Day 5 now looking more like the EURO evolution-- doesn't split that lobe of energy into a well defined surface low off the OR coast like the previous couple runs.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

GFS is struggling as a model. Pretty significant changes at day 5.

Garbage model

[Dave]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Why would you ever step away?

I was traveling. My mom is super elderly and she needed to see some relatives that are still alive. Seattle area.

[Slushy Inch]

Ridge bridge. This run is going Arctic.

[Winterdog]

13 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

So let's not pretend it's on it own out there.

I wasn't pretending, I'm really that stupid!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks good!

[Kolk1604]

You know why GFS has bad runs? So it can show us improvments, like this 

 

[Mid Valley Duck]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks good!

[uwgraduate2021]

6 minutes ago, Dave said:

I step away from the forum for a day and half and there are 90 new pages? What in the flying **** is fappening. Is it coming?

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Hawksfan2008]

New spire still on board. Curious to see which of the other models it tends to follow. 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Almost nothing for me so far. 

[Slushy Inch]

Not quite euro but a big improvement. Arctic front for sure.

[Slushy Inch]

Delivers!