January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

30 shades of purple and green 

And remember the scale is doubled so none of them "look" that great compared to the OP. Not sure why WB does that. 

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m not completely sure. But most likely I will show up at the most inopportune time.

How's the i-CON looking?

[DeepFriedEgg]

42 minutes ago, Doinko said:

More snow, arctic air not fully scoured out by that first major storm

 

Yep cuz low center stays south. Amazing.

[Kolk1604]

So many pages, can't keep up. Anyone post the snowy GEFS? 

Edit: lol than I forgot to 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

How's the i-CON looking?

Rock solid. 

[Christensen87]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

How's the i-CON looking?

Icon looks fine

[snow_wizard]

I can't believe we have a shot at something historic in January.  It's been a long long time....

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Christensen87 said:

Icon looks fine

Icon looks fine

[thisisacreativename]

Here comes the Euro...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I take it the GFS ensembles have improved. Anyone have the JMA?!

[SpaceRace22]

6 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

30 shades of purple and green 

Member #24 can go **** itself

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

8 minutes ago, iFred said:

If this plays out and by next week we still have something historic, I'll buy a round of drinks for anyone that attends the Seattle meet up.

If this plays out, will any of us be able to get there? Totally worth it, no doubt!!

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

So many pages, can't keep up. Anyone post the snowy GEFS? 

Probably just getting started. Record on here is like 4 separate threads from 1 month from an event a few years back with each having 150-200 pages each. We’ll likely need to do that for this one. 

[Cold Snap]

Here we go! Come on Euro! Don’t disappoint us.

[SpaceRace22]

4 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

And remember the scale is doubled so none of them "look" that great compared to the OP. Not sure why WB does that. 

I think it's because the ensembles tend to generate more extreme solutions on the outside end, so the wacky scale is necessary to fit in all the extreme outliers. In January, basically anything in the green on that scale is solidly cold/below freezing for the lowlands.

[Phishy Wx]

19 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

A generation of kids will grow in the PNW thinking El Niños are needed for snow. We are f*cked.

remember how CA got a bunch of historic Nina snow last winter, well now's our time to shine

[Kolk1604]

It's been over 50 years since we've seen something like this in a strong El Nino 

 

 

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

I think it's because the ensembles tend to generate more extreme solutions on the outside end, so the wacky scale is necessary to fit in all the extreme outliers. In January, basically anything in the green on that scale is solidly cold/below freezing for the lowlands.

After these past few days its obvious they need to do that for the operational ones too!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 1 - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[SeanNyberg]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

It's been over 50 years since we've seen something like this in a strong El Nino 

 

 

Yes. But El Niño Januaries can be decent. 2007, 1980, 1969, 1954, not strong but still Ninos. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Yeah. Let's put the kabosh on any and ALL political talk or jabs at others immediately. F*** politics.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

I F***ING LOVE MY LIFE, WOOOOOOOHOOOOO!

 

[Front Ranger]

Just the discussion we needed going into the BIGGEST EURO RUN OF ALL TIME.

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

It's been over 50 years since we've seen something like this in a strong El Nino 

 

 

Lines up with the picture slide of the lake house found going through my dads stuff. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Back to reality! 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Yeah. Let's put the kabosh on any and ALL political talk or jabs at others immediately. F*** politics.

Amen, f**k politics. After a 00z gfs and gefs run like that, politics should be the last thing on yalls mind

[Kolk1604]

Just now, MossMan said:

Lines up with the picture slide of the lake house found going through my dads stuff. 

That's so awesome 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Can someone post the weatherbell gfs ensemble snow chart for the Salem Airport and the bend airport? I assume weatherbell does not have sunriver so I just x1.5 what bend gets.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Welcome to all the guests and pro mets on here tonight!

[RentonHill]

So far I see nothing but a continuation of trends from 00z to 18z

[iFred]

Ok, while the Euro is running, I'd like everyone to read the following and then close their eyes and think hard about it. I know its weird hocus pocus stuff for some, but there is some science behind it and it just feels nice to day dream together.


Envision the Pacific Northwest as an artist's canvas, poised to be brushed with the striking hues of nature's chilliest palette—cobalt blues, dusky pinks, and amethyst purples gradate across weather maps, heralding historic snowfalls that will etch themselves into memory.

Imagine cities from Vancouver to Redding swathed in a silent, heavy blanket of snow, their landscapes softened into indistinct, monochromatic shapes against the delicate dance of snowflakes caught in the soft embrace of streetlight glow.

This arctic tableau extends beyond expected frontiers, casting a profound and lasting freeze over the entire region, from Canadian expanses to California's northern edge, capturing every breath with the promise of a rare, deep winter stillness.

 

[Kolk1604]

Just now, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Can someone post the weatherbell gfs ensemble snow chart for the Salem Airport and the bend airport? I assume weatherbell does not have sunriver so I just x1.5 what bend gets.

Not out yet, it's still running. 

[Sandy rocks]

You asked about when the last time the Columbia froze. In 1924 people drove Model T's across the Columbia from Portland to Vancouver. I also have a book that has pictures and talks about how the river froze in 1930. Portland had 11 days of subfreezing temperatures with an average high of 21. The pictures show the town of Altoona, Wa. which was about 20 miles upriver from Astoria. The town was iced in and people had to walk out over the ice to get to a supply ship. The book also said that the river was frozen completely across at Wauna which is near Cathlamet, Wa., where I grew up. I am not making this stuff up although it is hard to believe in this day and age.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Not out yet, it's still running. 

Oh ok.

 

Well someone do so when they are out, please and thank you!

[TT-SEA]

At 48 hours the ECMWF looks exactly like the GFS and the GEM.   

[Cascadia_Wx]

Y’all are gonna spook the Euro…

[Cloud]

Annnnnnddddd… out the door the guests went. 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

I also really like history and political science. But this is not the time, nor the place. What some people may see as just a historical offhand comment, other people may see as erasure. So let's stick to weather and have those other conversations on another thread or site.